GaWx Posted Wednesday at 02:06 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:06 PM The extreme dry soils in parts of NC are favoring that highs there will be a little hotter and threaten records vs most other areas of the SE. It will be interesting to see what actually happens. Much will depend on the pattern of mid afternoon pop-up thunderstorm activity and how far reaching are the associated outflow boundaries. OTOH, the ATL area, where it has been raining a good bit more, isn’t favored to threaten record highs. Their forecasts have mainly lower 90s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Wednesday at 02:10 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:10 PM 3 minutes ago, GaWx said: The extreme dry soils in parts of NC are favoring that highs there will be a little hotter and threaten records vs most other areas of the SE. It will be interesting to see what actually happens. Much will depend on the pattern of mid afternoon pop-up thunderstorm activity and how far reaching are the associated outflow boundaries. Also we are getting Dewpoints in the mid 60s instead of low 70s, so it's kinda a wash from a heat index standpoint 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Wednesday at 02:13 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:13 PM 2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Also we are getting Dewpoints in the mid 60s instead of low 70s, so it's kinda a wash from a heat index standpoint Yes, the lack of humidity has been noticeable thus far. Desert life was a foreign concept before this summer 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Thursday at 12:41 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:41 PM This weeks drought monitor showed significant worsening of conditions across NC with the triangle area finally slipping into D4 for first time since the 2007-2008 drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Thursday at 01:28 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:28 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Thursday at 01:35 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:35 PM 6 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: It’s been 17 days since the last measurable rain here. The number of 2+ week rainless stretches dating back to last year insane, I wish I tracked that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted Thursday at 01:38 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:38 PM Latest GFS doesn't show a whole lot of promise. the only "meaningful" rain fall set up looks to be next Tuesday and Wednesday. Sure the overall isolated/scattered afternoon storms seems like a good bet just about everyday. but only one real chance of an area wide rain through basically the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Thursday at 02:38 PM Share Posted Thursday at 02:38 PM On 6/10/2026 at 10:06 AM, GaWx said: The extreme dry soils in parts of NC are favoring that highs there will be a little hotter and threaten records vs most other areas of the SE. It will be interesting to see what actually happens. Much will depend on the pattern of mid afternoon pop-up thunderstorm activity and how far reaching are the associated outflow boundaries. OTOH, the ATL area, where it has been raining a good bit more, isn’t favored to threaten record highs. Their forecasts have mainly lower 90s. I think RDU has a shot to break the all-time record again. RAH calling for 102 and RDU has a habit of exceeding that during dry periods as you outlined 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Thursday at 04:42 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:42 PM 2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: I think RDU has a shot to break the all-time record again. RAH calling for 102 and RDU has a habit of exceeding that during dry periods as you outlined As of noon, RDU (and Rocky Mt, NC also) was at 94F, not surprisingly THE hottest in the entire SE. I’m including all SE states including FL. With 94 at noon, RDU has a a good shot at ~101-2 despite the NWS forecast having “only” upper 90s for the Raleigh area. This, of course, is assuming that clouds and convection don’t start to increase there or even in the general vicinity: “TODAY MOSTLY SUNNY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT. HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 102.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Thursday at 05:24 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:24 PM 3 hours ago, olafminesaw said: The Triangle, Triad, and neighboring S VA was the only area in the entire SE to notably worsen as the rest of the SE either was unchanged or improved vs last week’s map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Thursday at 05:46 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:46 PM 1 hour ago, GaWx said: As of noon, RDU (and Rocky Mt, NC also) was at 94F, not surprisingly THE hottest in the entire SE. I’m including all SE states including FL. With 94 at noon, RDU has a a good shot at ~101-2 despite the NWS forecast having “only” upper 90s for the Raleigh area. This, of course, is assuming that clouds and convection don’t start to increase there or even in the general vicinity: “TODAY MOSTLY SUNNY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT. HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 102.” I meant tomorrow but we are likely going over 100 today. 98.2 at my house right now 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted Thursday at 10:19 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:19 PM 4 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: I meant tomorrow but we are likely going over 100 today. 98.2 at my house right now RDU officially recorded 101. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Thursday at 10:55 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:55 PM 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Thursday at 11:05 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:05 PM 9 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: At least the models are seeing reality now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted yesterday at 04:32 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:32 AM The severe risk completely busted in NC today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted yesterday at 03:50 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:50 PM 11 hours ago, eyewall said: The severe risk completely busted in NC today No doubt. I was a little hopeful, but am slowly learning to basically ignore any rain threats coming from the NW. They simply don't make it past the Yadkin river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted yesterday at 05:40 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:40 PM 1 hour ago, CentralNC said: No doubt. I was a little hopeful, but am slowly learning to basically ignore any rain threats coming from the NW. They simply don't make it past the Yadkin river. We had all the severe storms here in the west. I had some pea size hail with torrential rainfall yesterday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUNYGRAD Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago ...perhaps a "LID" was probably partly to blame----Nothing really strong enough to break it in past I-77? Used the sounding from GSO 00Z, since any convection was to be around that time frame across central NC. Relative humidity levels between 500 and 700 relatively low, evident on sounding, but maybe part of why little convection took place over the central NC. Always pieces to a puzzle. Just my thoughts. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUNYGRAD Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago SPC Hourly Mesoscale Analysis - Archive Viewer. You can loop this and see what I mentioned above. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 17 hours ago, Met1985 said: We had all the severe storms here in the west. I had some pea size hail with torrential rainfall yesterday. Yeah, I know. Super jealous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 6z GFS keeps the northern half of NC under 1/2” QPF through end of June. Euro would’ve been the same if it didn’t develop and slide an inland hurricane through, lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago On 6/13/2026 at 12:32 AM, eyewall said: The severe risk completely busted in NC today I wouldn't say busted completely. I was driving up to Mt Airy to attend the Blue Ridge Baptist Camp Meeting where a friend was preaching. The clouds were looking ominous and all heck let loose just past where 52 breaks off to go into the town. I'm 73 and I have never ever had to pull off the highway because I couldn't see...until then. Five feet was the furthest that I could see in front of me. I was expecting to run into a car or get hit from behind. I found a side road to exit off onto to wait out the storm. When I got back onto the highway there was debris scattered everywhere, with up to 4 inch branches down. I'm a storm spotter and I'd definitely classify that as a severe storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUNYGRAD Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago Somewhat debatable depending upon who you ask. I have seen some strange things over the years. One might expect more reports in central NC from a DAY One forecast for Slight Risk from SPC----which had changed much with updates. With that said, there was not a Watch Issuance in NC, but one was issued for parts of VA, and the border counties of northwestern NC. Here is a preliminary verification map. Maybe not terrible, but like I said, one maybe would have expected at least a few reports in central NC----regardless of any watch. That's weather for you. SPC Severe Weather Event Review for Friday June 12, 2026. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUNYGRAD Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago Heard my first katydid this morning. Always reminds me of my grandmother. Like a lot of mountain people, she was always reciting folklore. One of them was that 16 weeks from the first katydid singing in the mountains of SC would be the first frost. It actually always works out pretty close… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago This has the one of the most bizarre Euro runs I've ever seen. Develops a tropical storm inland? There's not even a closed low prior to the energy coming ashore. Must be some kind of hybrid thing, but seems mostly warm core. Not even way out in fantasy land! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 hours ago, olafminesaw said: This has the one of the most bizarre Euro runs I've ever seen. Develops a tropical storm inland? There's not even a closed low prior to the energy coming ashore. Must be some kind of hybrid thing, but seems mostly warm core. Not even way out in fantasy land! I just came here to ask exactly that, never seen anything like that on a modal run; I'm got. Would the NHC declare it like that TD over Senegal all those years ago if it meets criteria? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo! Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago I’m trying to recall, was it Ivan that become such a beast over middle America as a hybrid low? Memory fails me.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 8 minutes ago, Jimbo! said: I’m trying to recall, was it Ivan that become such a beast over middle America as a hybrid low? Memory fails me. . It was TS Erin in 2007 over Oklahoma. I have to check but I thought Erin formed around the same spot S of TX as this to-be ghost of Erin but higher intensity over OK than the gulf. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 minutes ago, Torchageddon said: It was TS Erin in 2007 over Oklahoma. I have to check but I thought Erin formed around the same spot S of TX as this to-be ghost of Erin but higher intensity over OK than the gulf. Yep. Tropical storm at landfall before regaining TS strength over OK. Hard to imagine a not even TD organizing and strengthening over land except perhaps crossing over swampland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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