Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[GaWx]

The extreme dry soils in parts of NC are favoring that highs there will be a little hotter and threaten records vs most other areas of the SE. It will be interesting to see what actually happens. Much will depend on the pattern of mid afternoon pop-up thunderstorm activity and how far reaching are the associated outflow boundaries.

 OTOH, the ATL area, where it has been raining a good bit more, isn’t favored to threaten record highs. Their forecasts have mainly lower 90s.

[olafminesaw]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The extreme dry soils in parts of NC are favoring that highs there will be a little hotter and threaten records vs most other areas of the SE. It will be interesting to see what actually happens. Much will depend on the pattern of mid afternoon pop-up thunderstorm activity and how far reaching are the associated outflow boundaries.

Also we are getting Dewpoints in the mid 60s instead of low 70s, so it's kinda a wash from a heat index standpoint 

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Also we are getting Dewpoints in the mid 60s instead of low 70s, so it's kinda a wash from a heat index standpoint 

Yes, the lack of humidity has been noticeable thus far. Desert life was a foreign concept before this summer 

[NorthHillsWx]

This weeks drought monitor showed significant worsening of conditions across NC with the triangle area finally slipping into D4 for first time since the 2007-2008 drought. 

[olafminesaw]

[NorthHillsWx]

6 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

It’s been 17 days since the last measurable rain here. The number of 2+ week rainless stretches dating back to last year insane, I wish I tracked that 

[UnionCountyNCWX]

Latest GFS doesn't show a whole lot of promise. the only "meaningful" rain fall set up looks to be next Tuesday and Wednesday. Sure the overall isolated/scattered afternoon storms seems like a good bet just about everyday. but only one real chance of an area wide rain through basically the end of the month. 

[NorthHillsWx]

On 6/10/2026 at 10:06 AM, GaWx said:

The extreme dry soils in parts of NC are favoring that highs there will be a little hotter and threaten records vs most other areas of the SE. It will be interesting to see what actually happens. Much will depend on the pattern of mid afternoon pop-up thunderstorm activity and how far reaching are the associated outflow boundaries.

 OTOH, the ATL area, where it has been raining a good bit more, isn’t favored to threaten record highs. Their forecasts have mainly lower 90s.

I think RDU has a shot to break the all-time record again. RAH calling for 102 and RDU has a habit of exceeding that during dry periods as you outlined 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I think RDU has a shot to break the all-time record again. RAH calling for 102 and RDU has a habit of exceeding that during dry periods as you outlined 

 As of noon, RDU (and Rocky Mt, NC also) was at 94F, not surprisingly THE hottest in the entire SE. I’m including all SE states including FL. With 94 at noon, RDU has a a good shot at ~101-2 despite the NWS forecast having “only” upper 90s for the Raleigh area. This, of course, is assuming that clouds and convection don’t start to increase there or even in the general vicinity:

“TODAY   MOSTLY SUNNY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS   AFTERNOON. HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO   10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT. HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 102.”

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

The Triangle, Triad, and neighboring S VA was the only area in the entire SE to notably worsen as the rest of the SE either was unchanged or improved vs last week’s map.

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 As of noon, RDU (and Rocky Mt, NC also) was at 94F, not surprisingly THE hottest in the entire SE. I’m including all SE states including FL. With 94 at noon, RDU has a a good shot at ~101-2 despite the NWS forecast having “only” upper 90s for the Raleigh area. This, of course, is assuming that clouds and convection don’t start to increase there or even in the general vicinity:

“TODAY   MOSTLY SUNNY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS   AFTERNOON. HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO   10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT. HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 102.”

I meant tomorrow but we are likely going over 100 today. 98.2 at my house right now 

[UnionCountyNCWX]

4 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I meant tomorrow but we are likely going over 100 today. 98.2 at my house right now 

RDU officially recorded 101. 

[olafminesaw]

[NorthHillsWx]

9 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

At least the models are seeing reality now 

[eyewall]

The severe risk completely busted in NC today 

[CentralNC]

11 hours ago, eyewall said:

The severe risk completely busted in NC today 

No doubt.  I was a little hopeful, but am slowly learning to basically ignore any rain threats coming from the NW.  They simply don't make it past the Yadkin river.  

[Met1985]

1 hour ago, CentralNC said:

No doubt.  I was a little hopeful, but am slowly learning to basically ignore any rain threats coming from the NW.  They simply don't make it past the Yadkin river.  

We had all the severe storms here in the west. I had some pea size hail with torrential rainfall yesterday. 

[SUNYGRAD]

...perhaps a "LID" was probably partly to blame----Nothing really strong enough to break it in past I-77?   Used the sounding from GSO 00Z, since any convection was to be around that time frame across central NC.  Relative humidity levels between 500 and 700 relatively low, evident on sounding, but maybe part of why little convection took place over the central NC.  Always pieces to a puzzle.  Just my thoughts.

 

[SUNYGRAD]

SPC Hourly Mesoscale Analysis - Archive Viewer.  You can loop this and see what I mentioned above.  

[CentralNC]

17 hours ago, Met1985 said:

We had all the severe storms here in the west. I had some pea size hail with torrential rainfall yesterday. 

Yeah, I know.  Super jealous.

[NorthHillsWx]

6z GFS keeps the northern half of NC under 1/2” QPF through end of June. Euro would’ve been the same if it didn’t develop and slide an inland hurricane through, lmao 

[KChuck]

On 6/13/2026 at 12:32 AM, eyewall said:

The severe risk completely busted in NC today 

I wouldn't say busted completely. I was driving up to Mt Airy to attend the Blue Ridge Baptist Camp Meeting where a friend was preaching. The clouds were looking ominous and all heck let loose just past where 52 breaks off to go into the town. I'm 73 and I have never ever had to pull off the highway because I couldn't see...until then. Five feet was the furthest that I could see in front of me. I was expecting to run into a car or get hit from behind. I found a side road to exit off onto to wait out the storm. When I got back onto the highway there was debris scattered everywhere, with up to 4 inch branches down. I'm a storm spotter and I'd definitely classify that as a severe storm. 

[SUNYGRAD]

Somewhat debatable depending upon who you ask.  I have seen some strange things over the years.  One might expect more reports in central NC from a DAY One forecast for Slight Risk from SPC----which had changed much with updates.  With that said, there was not a Watch Issuance in NC, but one was issued for parts of VA, and the border counties of northwestern NC.  Here is a preliminary verification map.  Maybe not terrible, but like I said, one maybe would have expected at least a few reports in central NC----regardless of any watch.  That's weather for you.  SPC Severe Weather Event Review for Friday June 12, 2026. 

[SUNYGRAD]

[Upstate Tiger]

Heard my first katydid this morning.  Always reminds me of my grandmother.  Like a lot of mountain people, she was always reciting folklore.  One of them was that 16 weeks from the first katydid singing in the mountains of SC would be the first frost.  It actually always works out pretty close…