Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[GaWx]

The extreme dry soils in parts of NC are favoring that highs there will be a little hotter and threaten records vs most other areas of the SE. It will be interesting to see what actually happens. Much will depend on the pattern of mid afternoon pop-up thunderstorm activity and how far reaching are the associated outflow boundaries.

 OTOH, the ATL area, where it has been raining a good bit more, isn’t favored to threaten record highs. Their forecasts have mainly lower 90s.

[olafminesaw]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The extreme dry soils in parts of NC are favoring that highs there will be a little hotter and threaten records vs most other areas of the SE. It will be interesting to see what actually happens. Much will depend on the pattern of mid afternoon pop-up thunderstorm activity and how far reaching are the associated outflow boundaries.

Also we are getting Dewpoints in the mid 60s instead of low 70s, so it's kinda a wash from a heat index standpoint 

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Also we are getting Dewpoints in the mid 60s instead of low 70s, so it's kinda a wash from a heat index standpoint 

Yes, the lack of humidity has been noticeable thus far. Desert life was a foreign concept before this summer 

[NorthHillsWx]

This weeks drought monitor showed significant worsening of conditions across NC with the triangle area finally slipping into D4 for first time since the 2007-2008 drought. 

[olafminesaw]

[NorthHillsWx]

6 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

It’s been 17 days since the last measurable rain here. The number of 2+ week rainless stretches dating back to last year insane, I wish I tracked that 

[UnionCountyNCWX]

Latest GFS doesn't show a whole lot of promise. the only "meaningful" rain fall set up looks to be next Tuesday and Wednesday. Sure the overall isolated/scattered afternoon storms seems like a good bet just about everyday. but only one real chance of an area wide rain through basically the end of the month. 

[NorthHillsWx]

On 6/10/2026 at 10:06 AM, GaWx said:

The extreme dry soils in parts of NC are favoring that highs there will be a little hotter and threaten records vs most other areas of the SE. It will be interesting to see what actually happens. Much will depend on the pattern of mid afternoon pop-up thunderstorm activity and how far reaching are the associated outflow boundaries.

 OTOH, the ATL area, where it has been raining a good bit more, isn’t favored to threaten record highs. Their forecasts have mainly lower 90s.

I think RDU has a shot to break the all-time record again. RAH calling for 102 and RDU has a habit of exceeding that during dry periods as you outlined