Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[GaWx]

 The Gulf continues to have a low to moderate possibility for TCG next week per model consensus, including EPS/GEFS. This possibility has also been hinted at by the last few Euro Weekly runs for precip next week:

Yesterday’s EW for 6/1-7 precip:

[eyewall]

Not much help in the northern tier of NC but the south cashed in:

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[NorthHillsWx]

20 hours ago, eyewall said:

Not much help in the northern tier of NC but the south cashed in:

Yep northern piedmont missed out, about the only area in the entire region that did. Looks quite dry going forward too

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Yep northern piedmont missed out, about the only area in the entire region that did. Looks quite dry going forward too

 Yeah, next week looks drier over the upper SE (but not down here in the lower SE) than it has been recently overall. However, the good news is that the current Euro Weeklies don’t have the SE (including your area) in an overall dry pattern when looking out to the 2nd and 3rd week in June:

2nd week in June: NN to slightly AN

 

3rd week in June: wetter than normal:

 

[GaWx]

 The op GFS stopped its fake early June typical tropical cyclone nonsense. However, the EPS runs (along with GEFS) are now hinting at a modest increase in TCG potential in the Gulf in mid June after the MJO has been in phase 8 for awhile per EPS/MJO fwiw. The non bc-GEFS stays in phase 7 though. Per Joe Bastardi, phase 8 is a bullish phase for Gulf TCG in June.

[NorthHillsWx]

47 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Yeah, next week looks drier over the upper SE (but not down here in the lower SE) than it has been recently overall. However, the good news is that the current Euro Weeklies don’t have the SE (including your area) in an overall dry pattern when looking out to the 2nd and 3rd week in June:

2nd week in June: NN to slightly AN

 

3rd week in June: wetter than normal:

 

A rainy period is always 3 weeks away here now… Raleigh all but guaranteed to slip into level 2 water restrictions. Saw the lake was headed to 70% (currently 73%) and current restrictions went in at 85%. 60% is next level and that will come quicker as water usage increases in summer 

[NorthHillsWx]

The Burlington to Wilson Sahara:

https://x.com/nwsraleigh/status/2060427868295885014?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Elite weather

 

[olafminesaw]

[UnionCountyNCWX]

We got absolutely smashed in union county this morning. Was not expecting that. (Was only in town from Charlotte to mow grass, that obviously didnt happen)

[UnionCountyNCWX]

42 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

It amazes me how many times this map has been repeated this spring. 

[GaWx]

 It only takes one TC to possibly be a bad year and unfortunately even some strong+ El Niño seasons (where we’re likely headed) have had bad hits on the CONUS. Keep in mind that just a TS hit or even just a TD can cause devastating freshwater floods if slow moving.

 I just looked at the 13 strong+ El Niño seasons.

High impact storms in Conus during strong+ Nino (per RONI for 1950+)(2023 excluded since RONI peak only +1.49; so I didn’t count Idalia): I found 12

July 1997: H Danny (extreme rains Mobile area)

August 1991: H Bob (NC OB to E NE) though Nino not strong til later

June 1972: H Agnes in FL due to tornadoes and in PA as TS due to extreme rains though Nino not strong til later

Sept 1965: MH Betsy (one of New Orleans’ worst)

June 1957: MH Audrey (near TX/LA border) although Nino not strong til later

June 1902: TS storm #2 flooding rains TX although Nino not strong til later

July 1896: H storm #1 Pensacola though Nino not strong til later

Sept 1896: MH storm #4 NW FL and major damage well up into E US although not strong Nino til later

August 1888: MH/H storm #3 S FL/New Orleans although Nino not strong til later

Oct 1888: H storm #7 NW FL with TS winds up E coast to NE

Sept 1877: H storm #2 entire US Gulf coast

Oct 1877: MH storm #4 NW FL with TS/ET wind/rain damage well up E US
——————

- Per best tracks, all TCGs of these 12 high impact storms were W of 50W with most W of 70W.

-Only 5 of these 12 high impact Conus storms hit when Nino was already strong. So, early season could be the riskiest portion, which is pretty intuitive. Then again, MH Betsy (1965) and MH (storm #4) in 1877 hit when Nino already very strong. So, these are just good guidelines since nothing’s set in stone.

-These 12 hit during 9 of the 13 seasons that were strong+ Nino seasons. So, only 2015, 1987, 1982, and 1930 of these 13 had no Conus high impact storm. So, whereas there’s legit hope the Conus will be largely unscathed with the upcoming very strong Nino, I unfortunately wouldn’t bet against one ruining things somewhere even if isn’t a MH as was the case 7 of the 12 times.

 Despite the above, the good news is that there’s a very good chance for a quieter than average season overall for the Conus. Thus, the chance of a multiple storm high impact year like 2024, 2020, 2018, 2017, 2008, 2005, 2004, 1999, 1998, 1996, and 1985 among others is lower than average despite 2 storms with high impact hits in 1896, 1888, and 1877.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[Met1985]

46 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

El Nino is starting up.

[UnionCountyNCWX]

5 hours ago, Met1985 said:

El Nino is starting up.

Saw several posts today calling for a super El Nino this summer. Which...haven't most of them been strong (or beyond strong) over the past few years, the ones we've had????

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, UnionCountyNCWX said:

Saw several posts today calling for a super El Nino this summer. Which...haven't most of them been strong (or beyond strong) over the past few years, the ones we've had????

1. 2023 Nino peaked at near moderate/strong border based on RONI. RONI (relative ONI), unlike the traditional straight ONI, takes into account the warming surrounding tropical waters from global warming. RONI has been on avg ~0.5C cooler than ONI in recent years. So, whereas 2023 ONI peaked at border super/strong ~+2.0C, RONI peaked at only ~+1.5C (not super).

2. 2018-9 was weak Niño.

3. 2015-6 was the last true super-Nino.

4. 2014-5 was weak Nino.

For those who aren’t aware of this,  ENSO is followed daily at this informative thread:

 

[NorthHillsWx]

19 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

I’ll believe it when I see it 

[eyewall]

13 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I’ll believe it when I see it 

That is the Wake County motto ever since the dry slot.

[cbmclean]

Was there a synoptic reason for the relative precip minimum in the northern piedmont and NW coastal plain?  During the recent wet period over and over again strong cells would drift SW to NE from SC but they would suddenly start to weaken a sthey went north, leaving us to get crumbs up here.  Sometimes the remnant cell would actually actually seem to redeveloped after it moved past.  Was that just bad luck?

[NorthHillsWx]

3 hours ago, cbmclean said:

Was there a synoptic reason for the relative precip minimum in the northern piedmont and NW coastal plain?  During the recent wet period over and over again strong cells would drift SW to NE from SC but they would suddenly start to weaken a sthey went north, leaving us to get crumbs up here.  Sometimes the remnant cell would actually actually seem to redeveloped after it moved past.  Was that just bad luck?

Some of it was the stable air when the wedge lasted a lot longer than expected. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]