Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[GaWx]

 The Gulf continues to have a low to moderate possibility for TCG next week per model consensus, including EPS/GEFS. This possibility has also been hinted at by the last few Euro Weekly runs for precip next week:

Yesterday’s EW for 6/1-7 precip:

[eyewall]

Not much help in the northern tier of NC but the south cashed in:

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[NorthHillsWx]

20 hours ago, eyewall said:

Not much help in the northern tier of NC but the south cashed in:

Yep northern piedmont missed out, about the only area in the entire region that did. Looks quite dry going forward too

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Yep northern piedmont missed out, about the only area in the entire region that did. Looks quite dry going forward too

 Yeah, next week looks drier over the upper SE (but not down here in the lower SE) than it has been recently overall. However, the good news is that the current Euro Weeklies don’t have the SE (including your area) in an overall dry pattern when looking out to the 2nd and 3rd week in June:

2nd week in June: NN to slightly AN

 

3rd week in June: wetter than normal:

 

[GaWx]

 The op GFS stopped its fake early June typical tropical cyclone nonsense. However, the EPS runs (along with GEFS) are now hinting at a modest increase in TCG potential in the Gulf in mid June after the MJO has been in phase 8 for awhile per EPS/MJO fwiw. The non bc-GEFS stays in phase 7 though. Per Joe Bastardi, phase 8 is a bullish phase for Gulf TCG in June.

[NorthHillsWx]

47 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Yeah, next week looks drier over the upper SE (but not down here in the lower SE) than it has been recently overall. However, the good news is that the current Euro Weeklies don’t have the SE (including your area) in an overall dry pattern when looking out to the 2nd and 3rd week in June:

2nd week in June: NN to slightly AN

 

3rd week in June: wetter than normal:

 

A rainy period is always 3 weeks away here now… Raleigh all but guaranteed to slip into level 2 water restrictions. Saw the lake was headed to 70% (currently 73%) and current restrictions went in at 85%. 60% is next level and that will come quicker as water usage increases in summer 

[NorthHillsWx]

The Burlington to Wilson Sahara:

https://x.com/nwsraleigh/status/2060427868295885014?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Elite weather

 

[olafminesaw]

[UnionCountyNCWX]

We got absolutely smashed in union county this morning. Was not expecting that. (Was only in town from Charlotte to mow grass, that obviously didnt happen)

[UnionCountyNCWX]

42 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

It amazes me how many times this map has been repeated this spring. 

[GaWx]

 It only takes one TC to possibly be a bad year and unfortunately even some strong+ El Niño seasons (where we’re likely headed) have had bad hits on the CONUS. Keep in mind that just a TS hit or even just a TD can cause devastating freshwater floods if slow moving.

 I just looked at the 13 strong+ El Niño seasons.

High impact storms in Conus during strong+ Nino (per RONI for 1950+)(2023 excluded since RONI peak only +1.49; so I didn’t count Idalia): I found 12

July 1997: H Danny (extreme rains Mobile area)

August 1991: H Bob (NC OB to E NE) though Nino not strong til later

June 1972: H Agnes in FL due to tornadoes and in PA as TS due to extreme rains though Nino not strong til later

Sept 1965: MH Betsy (one of New Orleans’ worst)

June 1957: MH Audrey (near TX/LA border) although Nino not strong til later

June 1902: TS storm #2 flooding rains TX although Nino not strong til later

July 1896: H storm #1 Pensacola though Nino not strong til later

Sept 1896: MH storm #4 NW FL and major damage well up into E US although not strong Nino til later

August 1888: MH/H storm #3 S FL/New Orleans although Nino not strong til later

Oct 1888: H storm #7 NW FL with TS winds up E coast to NE

Sept 1877: H storm #2 entire US Gulf coast

Oct 1877: MH storm #4 NW FL with TS/ET wind/rain damage well up E US
——————

- Per best tracks, all TCGs of these 12 high impact storms were W of 50W with most W of 70W.

-Only 5 of these 12 high impact Conus storms hit when Nino was already strong. So, early season could be the riskiest portion, which is pretty intuitive. Then again, MH Betsy (1965) and MH (storm #4) in 1877 hit when Nino already very strong. So, these are just good guidelines since nothing’s set in stone.

-These 12 hit during 9 of the 13 seasons that were strong+ Nino seasons. So, only 2015, 1987, 1982, and 1930 of these 13 had no Conus high impact storm. So, whereas there’s legit hope the Conus will be largely unscathed with the upcoming very strong Nino, I unfortunately wouldn’t bet against one ruining things somewhere even if isn’t a MH as was the case 7 of the 12 times.

 Despite the above, the good news is that there’s a very good chance for a quieter than average season overall for the Conus. Thus, the chance of a multiple storm high impact year like 2024, 2020, 2018, 2017, 2008, 2005, 2004, 1999, 1998, 1996, and 1985 among others is lower than average despite 2 storms with high impact hits in 1896, 1888, and 1877.

[WinstonSalemArlington]