NorthHillsWx Posted Friday at 01:24 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:24 PM Anything coming through a NW flow is going to underperform in QPF department regardless what models show. That has become more than evident over the last year 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Friday at 02:30 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:30 PM Tomorrow’s system is going to have a painfully tight gradient in rainfall with amounts over 1/2” and under 1/10” likely spanning a single county 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Friday at 03:34 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:34 PM Not gonna lie, I am pretty bummed that we are gonna get shutout here. We really need that slow soaking 1-2 inch rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUNYGRAD Posted Friday at 04:14 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:14 PM 3 hours ago, olafminesaw said: Hmmm. What gives them confidence in high winds that far out? Seems odd. Doesn't seem to be a particularly strong storm signal or anything. Pretty good gradient for early May and storm over NE (that does wrap up good) but agree it seems maybe a little strange this far out. Just used this GFS as an example form 06Z----I think they are looking at this system and the general pattern. I believe the criteria is 40 mph or higher for 1 hrr. or more. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Friday at 05:00 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:00 PM Womp womp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted Friday at 06:47 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:47 PM 1 hour ago, olafminesaw said: Womp womp Clt went from .31 to .4. LETS REEL IT IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Saturday at 12:24 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:24 AM For shitz n giggles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Saturday at 12:25 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:25 AM This is funny too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Saturday at 10:26 AM Share Posted Saturday at 10:26 AM If today’s system was in winter the cliff diving would be epic like epic epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted Saturday at 12:29 PM Share Posted Saturday at 12:29 PM 2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: If today’s system was in winter the cliff diving would be epic like epic epic isn't that the truth. Of course nothing will ever come close to the pain of that dry slot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUNYGRAD Posted Saturday at 01:03 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:03 PM 85 shift dance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Saturday at 01:09 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:09 PM While it certainly won’t be the rain we were hoping for the cool steady rain is making for quite a pleasant morning here. It pushed just far enough west for Raleigh and the farm in Louisburg to get into the rain shield 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted Saturday at 01:24 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:24 PM 15 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: While it certainly won’t be the rain we were hoping for the cool steady rain is making for quite a pleasant morning here. It pushed just far enough west for Raleigh and the farm in Louisburg to get into the rain shield and it has actually pushed a little more west to keep us in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Saturday at 06:24 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:24 PM Looking at ensembles and just the general pattern going into middle of May, I think (and hope) we are near the end of our dry period. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Sunday at 09:37 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:37 PM May has a non-zero shot at being cooler than April. Can't imagine that happens too often 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted Monday at 07:02 AM Share Posted Monday at 07:02 AM Hopefully Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Monday at 02:35 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:35 PM 7 hours ago, Met1985 said: Hopefully Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Seems to be good model agreement on a subforum-wide soaking rain 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted Monday at 05:02 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:02 PM 2 hours ago, olafminesaw said: Seems to be good model agreement on a subforum-wide soaking rain There sure is. Especially this week coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted Monday at 09:55 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:55 PM Looks like there will be multiple chances of rain in the next 10 days. Been awhile since we have seen a forecast like that. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUNYGRAD Posted Tuesday at 11:49 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:49 AM Not super confident on CFS this far out, but this winter, if depicted right or similar, could be interesting in SE. January below of course, but December-February is an interesting period on CFS but probably changing some. Do not recall seeing this much below heights in SE in sometime. Still fun to watch. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago It almost feels like a snow day with how excited I am for rain tonight. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago 45 minutes ago, UnionCountyNCWX said: It almost feels like a snow day with how excited I am for rain tonight. Really has continued to look like a widespread soaking is coming tonight/tomorrow. First time in forever it hasn’t collapsed up to this point. There’s still time to fail lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: Really has continued to look like a widespread soaking is coming tonight/tomorrow. First time in forever it hasn’t collapsed up to this point. There’s still time to fail lol Latest GFS still showing 2 plus inches for the CLT metro by Friday. Cant believe its this close and not falling apart lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 8 minutes ago, UnionCountyNCWX said: Latest GFS still showing 2 plus inches for the CLT metro by Friday. Cant believe its this close and not falling apart lol Maybe we can get that back surgery dude to start the thread 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 3 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said: Maybe we can get that back surgery dude to start the thread Jimbo! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo! Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago Maybe we can get that back surgery dude to start the threadLol I would but man it just seems dry begets dry . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Getting nervous because some models showing a cutoff to the NW of the heavier precip as far south as I85. I assume this is the GRAF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago RAH AFD mentioning the possibility of losing QPF due to a "gravity wave". Wikipedia essentially describes a gravity wave as any wave where gravity is the restorative force, which describes a lot of waves. There is a section on atmospheric examples but it's very broad. Anyone care to share on what gravity wave means in the context of NC weather? Waves of moderate showers and storms will continue to be directed across the Carolina Wed evening into Thurs morning ahead of a back-door cold frontal passage slowly sagging south across the southern Mid-Atlantic. Precip chances may be negatively impacted by any gravity wave development during this time, which can rapidly erode precip generation in this type of pattern. By Thurs morning, the combination of frontogentical forcing and an area of low pressure rippling along the front will likely bring another round of widespread showers and isolated storms before shifting east of the area by late Thurs evening. Uncertainty in timing of the fropa is resulting in lower confidence in the development of an unstable air mass supportive of surface-based convection Thurs afternoon, which will be needed to realize any severe potential. Strong and increasing shear with height will be highly favorable for storm organization, but conditional on development of deep convection first. Storm total rainfall through Thurs evening looks to bring much needed rain to the area with the reasonable low-end from the HREF still producing a swath of 0.75 to 1" somewhere over the Carolinas. However, the experimental REFS paints a troubling alternate scenario with reasonable low-end amounts closer 0.25 to 0.5". With the potential for gravity wave development and more quickly eroding shields of precipitation, this scenario can`t be ruled out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 11 minutes ago, cbmclean said: RAH AFD mentioning the possibility of losing QPF due to a "gravity wave". Wikipedia essentially describes a gravity wave as any wave where gravity is the restorative force, which describes a lot of waves. There is a section on atmospheric examples but it's very broad. Anyone care to share on what gravity wave means in the context of NC weather? Waves of moderate showers and storms will continue to be directed across the Carolina Wed evening into Thurs morning ahead of a back-door cold frontal passage slowly sagging south across the southern Mid-Atlantic. Precip chances may be negatively impacted by any gravity wave development during this time, which can rapidly erode precip generation in this type of pattern. By Thurs morning, the combination of frontogentical forcing and an area of low pressure rippling along the front will likely bring another round of widespread showers and isolated storms before shifting east of the area by late Thurs evening. Uncertainty in timing of the fropa is resulting in lower confidence in the development of an unstable air mass supportive of surface-based convection Thurs afternoon, which will be needed to realize any severe potential. Strong and increasing shear with height will be highly favorable for storm organization, but conditional on development of deep convection first. Storm total rainfall through Thurs evening looks to bring much needed rain to the area with the reasonable low-end from the HREF still producing a swath of 0.75 to 1" somewhere over the Carolinas. However, the experimental REFS paints a troubling alternate scenario with reasonable low-end amounts closer 0.25 to 0.5". With the potential for gravity wave development and more quickly eroding shields of precipitation, this scenario can`t be ruled out. Wouldn’t that be some sh*t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 13 hours ago Author Share Posted 13 hours ago Hate it has to be like this but yea, the CAMs are less than enthusiastic about rain north of I-85. I hope they’re wrong but drought breeds drought. I’m happy for folks in SC and Georgia though. They need it just as bad as we do in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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