Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[BooneWX]

Imo don’t fret and split hairs on QPF quite yet. Overrunning setups tend to trend wetter down to zero hour. 

[NorthHillsWx]

What I would do for a .75-1” QPF bomb one of these days like we used to get even if some was wasted on mix or low ratios. All these NS systems you’re fighting for two tenths of an inch of QPF for victory, though ratios typically are better

[BornAgain13]

Almost a 2" mean here on GEFS. Come on Euro throw us a bone. 

[olafminesaw]

20 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

OP was a tick towards the Euro at H5 but the GEFS continued to move NW. Will have to dive into the members more to see whether or not that’s just being skewed by some amplified outliers.

The 12z OP was an  amplified outlier to it's ensemble to some degree, so it makes sense that the op and mean split the difference and became aligned at 18z

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

Mike Maze at WRAL only showed the European and said he wasn’t expecting anything with temperatures above freezing.  I notice a trend at WRAL.  Downcast everything until it is actually within 24 hours.  

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said:

Mike Maze at WRAL only showed the European and said he wasn’t expecting anything with temperatures above freezing.  I notice a trend at WRAL.  Downcast everything until it is actually within 24 hours.  

And it works 90% of the time! 

[olafminesaw]

Subtle improvements through 84 on the Euro I think. Hard to say yet if just noise

[Upstate Tiger]

Just now, olafminesaw said:

Subtle improvements through 84 on the Euro I think. Hard to say yet if just noise

Mines stuck at 84.  Must be the SE crew. 

[Grayman]

It’s definitely more west. 

[Upstate Tiger]

Well the Euro threw us a bone.  Much better at 96. 

[Grayman]

2 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Well the Euro threw us a bone.  Much better at 96. 

Yep. Nice step.

[Upstate Tiger]

[1bert1]

Good breakdown...

 

[olafminesaw]

I have a feeling that while the NW trend is our friend for now, it will become the villain before it is all said and done, at least for those East of 85

[WXNewton]

18z Euro trended more towards GFS and the biggest difference over 12z, it goes neutral faster, placement is about the same. Another tick or two like that, I believe we will see significant increase in precip on the surface maps to come.

[SnowDawg]

Much improved in all areas of interest at H5. Better separation from the wave behind plus better ridges in front and behind. Get the entire long wave trough axis to go a bit more neutral/negative and it’ll go boom. Still wouldn’t be shocked to see a bit more precip response to the NW even with that look.

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

25 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

And it works 90% of the time! 

In this case however he should have been familiar with the trend game and should have at least gave the GFS equal love.  Just to downplay without giving the other side of the argument isn’t quite right.  Now, if he were to add that he simply feels that QPF being overstated recently or if he is putting more emphasis on it being flatter, I could see it.  This just screams at least an inch or 2- maybe I’m crazy.

[BooneWX]

9 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

18z Euro trended more towards GFS and the biggest difference over 12z, it goes neutral faster, placement is about the same. Another tick or two like that, I believe we will see significant increase in precip on the surface maps to come.

Yep but I still think these globals are way too dry as it is. I fully expect some namming to occur Friday. Cams will tell the story.

[wncsnow]

18Z euro did shift west quite a bit. Not as far as GFS but much better than 12Z. 

 

As some have mentioned, it does look a lot like the setup for January, 28, 2014

[BooneWX]

6 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

18Z euro did shift west quite a bit. Not as far as GFS but much better than 12Z. 

 

As some have mentioned, it does look a lot like the setup for January, 28, 2014

Hopefully a pre cursor event just like 2014…. valentines 2014 is one that’ll live in lore for a long time. 

[BornAgain13]

Great seeing the Euro jump west! Bring on 0z!

[SnowDawg]

EPS is not positive. Fine for those from the FL panhandle to SE VA though. EPS is the gold standard in my book and unless it starts making big changes in the next 24 hours I’d bet that those of us to the north and west will end up disappointed yet again. 

[BornAgain13]

Just now, SnowDawg said:

EPS is not positive. Fine for those from the FL panhandle to SE VA though. EPS is the gold standard in my book and unless it starts making big changes in the next 24 hours I’d bet that those of us to the north and west will end up disappointed yet again. 

Image?

[Upstate Tiger]

4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Image?

Seems improved to me but I’ve looked at so many on the last 24 hours, not sure.  Too lazy to pull the 12z
 

[SnowDawg]

3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Image?

QPF 12z followed by 18z. 
And snowfall mean 12z followed by 18z

[NorthHillsWx]

To me, everything seems to be honing in on central and eastern parts of the Carolina’s 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[Brick Tamland]

Feel like this is evolving just like the storm in January of last year. Tomorrow the Euro will probably be in step with the GFS.

[olafminesaw]

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

18Z euro did shift west quite a bit. Not as far as GFS but much better than 12Z. 

 

As some have mentioned, it does look a lot like the setup for January, 28, 2014

AI models favor this solution with the highest totals in NE NC and a sharp cutoff west of the Triangle

[WinstonSalemArlington]