Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[wncsnow]

Happy hour adds some hopium 

[NorthHillsWx]

22 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Happy hour adds some hopium 

Nice at least seeing digital snow it’s been so long I forgot what that was like 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[BooneWX]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Nice at least seeing digital snow it’s been so long I forgot what that was like 

And it’s digital snow not at hour 360!

[gamecockinupstateSC]

Euro AI had storm with lighter amounts near coast.  Euro is a hit. 

[BornAgain13]

6z GFS crushes NW NC and SW VA

[BooneWX]

Yea that run was a weather weenie’s paradise. Overall, the pattern held in the overnight guidance. It’s a step down process that gradually gets cooler over time. A -NAO really starts to show up later in the scene and bully some cold air down the east coast. That gfs fantasy run was something we really hasn’t seen in a while: deep CAD and a very dynamic shortwave digging all the way to the Gulf before a bee line north. A mauler from NC to Maine.

[olafminesaw]

A lot may hinge on the NAO cooperating as to whether this pattern is legit or not 

[lilj4425]

Upstate SC hasn’t seen at least an inch of snow in over four years. About to make it five. This Winter is boring.

[tarheelwx]

That 06z GFS was a real slop storm for the mountains.  PLenty of qpf, but temps struggle to get down to or below freezing.  Even after the storm, there's still no real intrusion of arctic air anywhere near the southeast.  After the storm pass, we're right back to where we're at.  As we all know, it is the GFS.

 

TW  

[NorthHillsWx]

0z Euro was beautiful in piedmont areas

[BooneWX]

16 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

0z Euro was beautiful in piedmont areas

Yall would have to put our foothills thread on suicide watch if it played out like that lol

[BooneWX]

31 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

A lot may hinge on the NAO cooperating as to whether this pattern is legit or not 

I think you’re right. Last week, my concern was that our source region really gets scoured out by mild Pacific air and the models are reflecting that. It shouldn’t take long to reload Canada if we get some cross polar flow, but yea, a lot of this will be largely dependent on trapping already marginal cold air and making the environment ripe for stout HPs.

[BooneWX]

Big takeaway, this pattern, especially if the TPV continues to show up in lower latitudes is flirting with big dog potential. I’m not as concerned about suppression because we are already seeing some west Atlantic ridging and linkage between energy for once. Should slow things down, allow phasing for a change, and watch it ride that gradient. 

[olafminesaw]

I'm also thinking the storm around the 15th is more of a Northeast threat and sets the stage for more southerly storm tracks 

[BooneWX]

2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

I'm also thinking the storm around the 15th is more of a Northeast threat and sets the stage for more southerly storm tracks 

Same here. There’s just not enough cold air to work with unless we get some sort of mega wedge as we work into the medium range. You can see in the 12z guidance already that our PNA is looking a bit better and we get a train of energy coming down out of the Rockies. It’s usually never the first storm here anyways - always the second and third you have to watch. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[BornAgain13]

12z GFS for 19th-20th time frame has a winter storm for some areas. Of course its 300+ hrs out.

[BooneWX]

Fantasy runs are so back!

[SnowDawg]

Probably the most ideal solution for us is getting that 15th system to deliver the cold and then become a big 50/50 low ahead of a trailing system around the 17th/18th. Very close on that one but the shortwave got cutoff and stuck west of the Rockies for a few days. 

[Met1985]

Just a word from the wise. These fantasy storms are ok but as we have seen the ensembles and longe range model runs have been atrocious this season.  

[BooneWX]

24 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Just a word from the wise. These fantasy storms are ok but as we have seen the ensembles and longe range model runs have been atrocious this season.  

We do need noise though. You definitely can’t take them seriously but if we’re going to manage anything fruitful out of this pattern, we need the models to start baring out that fruit. Good sign of things to come hopefully. I love that we’ve also seen a few modes of winter weather. We have some overrunning outputs and some massive miller a signals. 

[wncsnow]

Close to something nice Day 10 on the Euro. Northern stream kinda shears the southern stream out. 

[wncsnow]

Canada looks incredibly frigid late in the Euro run. 

[BooneWX]

Inside 10 days, that’s a heck of a look at 500mb. You can see the trough dig and take on a neutral tilt in the run. I really wish we weren’t stepping down from a blow torch because this would be money. We’d need more digging and time for it to go negative, which is doable, but likely this will be a close miss.


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[wncsnow]

8 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Inside 10 days, that’s a heck of a look at 500mb. You can see the trough dig and take on a neutral tilt in the run. I really wish we weren’t stepping down from a blow torch because this would be money. We’d need more digging and time for it to go negative, which is doable, but likely this will be a close miss.


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If we can get some more blocking in the northeast that would be even better. 

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

Just a word from the wise. These fantasy storms are ok but as we have seen the ensembles and longe range model runs have been atrocious this season.  

Beyond D7-8 but inside of that they've tended to get the pattern theme close.  I'd feel pretty good now in the SE in that window from the 14th-20th.  It may carry past that because I believe the +PNA will hold longer than currently modeled.  We will eventually go to a -PNA/-EPO with a SER but that might not be til like the 27th or 28th despite what ensembles try to show.  

[WiseWeather]

On pivotal hr 384 just gave up.


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