stormtracker Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 23 minutes ago, CAPE said: Transient 50-50 lows are often not helpful outside of perfect timing/luck. Its simply a low moving through that location. A 50-50 low that is useful is part of a -NAO rex block, in which case it is quasi-stationary. You know that I know that you know that we're going to be tracking the cape storm and it's legit. You can keep being modest now, that's why we love you. But you know that I know that you know. 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 15 minutes ago, stormtracker said: You know that I know that you know that we're going to be tracking the cape storm and it's legit. You can keep being modest now, that's why we love you. But you know that I know that you know. Both windows have their flaws, but that's almost always the case with snow chances at our latitude. We need some luck with timing and wave interactions most of the time. It's how we roll. Mid month is pretty close on most recent runs, and a pretty good bet these modeled outcomes are the result of some amount of error wrt wave spacing and timing- still 6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 1 hour ago, bncho said: I'm trusting PSU over JB any day of the week Me too!!..Definitely!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 1 hour ago, pazzo83 said: yeah i pretty much trust them more than anyone else lol. Some of our TV mets are pretty good too. I agree. I can understand using analogs to a point. But I think JB uses analogs too much, no matter how many different variables there are. He will follow an analog over a cliff if it agrees with his thinking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 6 hours ago, pazzo83 said: when's the last time we really had a cutter go up the spine of the Apps like old times? Start off as heavy snow bc of CAD, turn into heavy rain. Temps shoot up to 60+ or whatever. Thunderstorms. Cleveland or Detroit get like a foot. Brutal cold on the backside. No thanks. The worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago Hey guys trying to catch up...I know we are tracking snow potential but more importantly how warm are we going to get in a few weeks? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 11 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Hey guys trying to catch up...I know we are tracking snow potential but more importantly how warm are we going to get in a few weeks? I heard we’re going to get to 80, so our snowpack will get nuked. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 17 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Hey guys trying to catch up...I know we are tracking snow potential but more importantly how warm are we going to get in a few weeks? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago @winter_warlock find the banter thread dude 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: @winter_warlock find the banter thread dude Oops sry I thought I posted it in the banter thread. I deleted it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago That H5 map on the Icon is just so frustratingly wonderful @144. So close, but so far 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: That H5 map on the Icon is just so frustratingly wonderful @144. So close, but so far Dont fret...it is merely setting up for the Cape storm window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago That H5 map on the Icon is just so frustratingly wonderful @144. So close, but so farBlame the cape storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 13 minutes ago, stormtracker said: That H5 map on the Icon is just so frustratingly wonderful @144. So close, but so far I'd still rather have that at 144 instead of being in the bullseye. Lots of time to improve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Tropical tidbits has lots of missing frames jumps from 144 to 180 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMAC98 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Just now, winter_warlock said: Tropical tidbits has lots of missing frames jumps from 144 to 180 lol The frames do seem to load faster/more consistently on Pivotalweather...speaking of which the GFS runs quicker on CyclonicWx so I tend to use that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Just now, DMAC98 said: The frames do seem to load faster/more consistently on Pivotalweather...speaking of which the GFS runs quicker on CyclonicWx so I tend to use that I'll have to try that thanks!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMAC98 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 10 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: I'll have to try that thanks!! np Yeah I noticed it a while ago during hurricane season. My only complaint is I think there should be more localized regional parameters, there's one for the entire eastern half of the US but it would be nice if he could split it into specific regions like the Northeast, Southeast, etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 2 minutes ago, DMAC98 said: np Yeah I noticed it a while ago during hurricane season. My only complaint is I think there should be more localized regional parameters, there's one for the entire eastern half of the US but it would be nice if he could split it into specific regions like the Northeast, Southeast, etc. I got pivotal now ty bro! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Probably not going to make a ton of difference, but the ridging out west with the GFS now vs 18z is a bit higher. H5 does show some subtle differences. Let's see how this progresses down the line 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 5 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Absolutely, 18z GFS is a long duration Warning level event this run. I swear 2016 lined up a lot like that top one . Went on snd on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Probably not going to make a ton of difference, but the ridging out west with the GFS now vs 18z is a bit higher. H5 does show some subtle differences. Let's see how this progresses down the line Good start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Just now, Solution Man said: Good start Trof axis is further west than 18z so far...seems like that would be a positive, but with this year and where we live, I can't look too much into it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago AIGFS is a weenie run if you work under the assumption that the AIs surface temps are broken 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago H5 energy is trailing decently west of last run. This should be improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Probably not going to make a ton of difference, but the ridging out west with the GFS now vs 18z is a bit higher. H5 does show some subtle differences. Let's see how this progresses down the line That energy is also farther SW and diving in harder than on prior runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Ok, so onto the next panel. It's markedly different vs 18z...seems positive at h5, but sfc not terribly impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: AIGFS is a weenie run if you work under the assumption that the AIs surface temps are broken Where do you get the AIGFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago It's a much improved h5 look...just don't know if surface can't match up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago This looks like it could be good trend! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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