January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Amped]

8 minutes ago, mattie g said:

This is an absolutely ludicrous run. Basically drops 30+” areawide for the 10-day period starting on the 24th.

Lame, we got 60" in a 12 day period in 2010.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

12z Canadian is about as amped as I want at this range. Inside of 48 hrs? Sure.

Listen I will happily risk amped over suppression any day...keep that ampin' and rampin'!

[NorthArlington101]

CMC in hi-rez

[TSSN+]

Just now, bncho said:

lol at the CMC. imagine getting 2' of snow in the fuckin teens. lol

Don’t have to imagine we have had it before. 

[NorthArlington101]

Also the NBM is… well, folks-y. 9” mean for DC. 

[csnavywx]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Earlier this month, Tomer Burg (PolarWx) on Twitter posited that DC - NYC could see something on the order of ~20" for the month of January and people laughed at him. He might be right.

Low key had a lot of 1995 analogs pop when I did my seasonal for the office this winter. It was strong enough that I've got a wager going for a 20+" seasonal here. Doesn't mean we're getting the nutty 50+ that season had, but not at all surprising that this stuff is starting to pop off now that WPac warm pool forcing is strengthening and Nina forcing is waning.

[Shad]

Is there a Weenie Rule that these storms tend to get juicer QPF as we get closer to the event...

 

If we can hold and get into NAM range it might get ridic

[TSSN+]

Ukmet ejecting wave like cmc. Let’s see where it goes. 

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, mattie g said:

This is an absolutely ludicrous run. Basically drops 30+” areawide for the 10-day period starting on the 24th.

Obviously that's extreme lol but feast/famine or storms in bunches has historically how we roll in the MA. We're conditioned to expect fail (especially the last 10 years or so) but we also haven't had a blocked pattern like this since 2011. I'm personally expecting a second legit threat at least over the next 2 weeks. 

Blocking cycles like this have historically lasted 30-45 days. Imo, it would be much less likely for things to fall apart quickly than hang around and deliver. I had a hunch this winter would be blocky and so far it has been pretty good in that department. The upcoming period looks ideal. Just need things to remain active to capitalize. That piece is always random and chaotic but give us enough chances and we'll do just fine imo. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Ukmet will not be as far north as its 0z run. Still ejects the SW but doesn't phase it as far back so should be better for all of us.

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Also the NBM is… well, folks-y. 9” mean for DC. 

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Ukmet will not be as far north as its 0z run. Still ejects the SW but doesn't phase it as far back so should be better for all of us.

Its an odd duck H5 wise but gets us into snow by this time period

[bncho]

UKMET!

[DDweatherman]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Its an odd duck H5 wise but gets us into snow by this time period

Lotta random energy on UK, that other models don’t have in a similar fashion. Don’t hate that it still brings us snow, south of 0z amped run. 

[SnowenOutThere]

My God

[NorthArlington101]

UKIE goes coastal. Still smashing us at 150

[SnowenOutThere]

No Words

[mattie g]

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

CMC in hi-rez

[TSSN+]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Oh please lord make it happen. 

[Weather Will]

Canadian is an extreme winter event with snow for 2 days and blowing and drifting snow with windchills below zero on the Monday after the storm-really impressive.

[Warm Nose]

20 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

snow map should be porn worthy...looks like DC north stays snow for the. most part...it gets super close tho

Remember, "you gotta be able to smell the rain to get the big stuff"

[TSSN+]

I got one thing to say. 
 

Fuck the GFS. 

[DDweatherman]

The ggem and uk just went ballistic. The big ones do lock in early…we def don’t want to peak 132 hrs out. 

[GreyHat]

19 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Hour 150 with light snow exiting the region

Delaware would be nice place to be, but I don't want to be in the bullseye this early. Until the others show something good like this or close on Thursday. I'd be happy waiting. 

[DDweatherman]

I have three children, I would perhaps give a nut to make that UK run come to fruition. Or the CMC’s 18” blizzard too. 

[bncho]

12z Suite Scoreboard

>4" vs <4" scoreboard (Euro = 5, Euro AI = 5, GFS AI = 4, GFS = 3, CMC = 2, UKMET = 1, ICON = 1)
DC: 5-4, more than 4" leads
Baltimore: 5 - 4, more than 4" leads

lets see what the euros do

[Bob Chill]

Let's just play the ukulele and lock it up. I mix for a bit but if that's what it takes for ALL of us to get buried... I guess I'll make the sacrifice just this once 

[Amped]

Cmc gearing up for another monster hit at 240.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Again, with a 1040mb High to the north, what the UKMET is showing is a wide swath of blizzard warnings

It's been so rare lately to have strong High pressure to the north.. if it holds, blizzard conditions are the upside

[bncho]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

I got one thing to say. 
 

Fuck the GFS. 

see at least for Feb 20 2025 the GFS wasn't on an island, it had the euro ai.

now the gfs is on a fucking other universe where different laws of physics occur