SnowenOutThere Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, bncho said: 12z GFS is interesting so far, might be suppressive though With the current placement of confluence it simply won’t hit us. However that might move east and let the sw vort eventually move moisture into our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 So, gonna be cautious here because the H5 map looks like it could turn things around in later panels...we'll see but as of now, that cold is killing our asses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 But yeah, it's just so suppressive still. Everything pushed along the gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 awful 1040 high placement 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: So, gonna be cautious here because the H5 map looks like it could turn things around in later panels...we'll see but as of now, that cold is killing our asses Watching that 500 low move SE into Baja is something else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Heh, N GA Carolina winter storm! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, MN Transplant said: Watching that 500 low move SE into Baja is something else Looks like it's about to get cut off/be a spinner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, stormtracker said: Heh, N GA Carolina winter storm! who the fuck cares about what the gfs shows? 0z it was too far north, 6z was decent, now 12z was too far south lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 It’s a good thing nobody cares about what the GFS shows 7 days out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, bncho said: who the fuck cares about what the gfs shows? 0z it was too far north, 6z was decent, now 12z was too far south lol I think we all kinda give a fuck about it....just can't be silly and buy into at 100+ hours these days 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Wow, a few of us (not all) thought 1/24ish thing was going to be too far N but set the stage for the followup. Now suppression for the 1st storm, who knows what the Baja Blast goon system is going to do. Very volatile.and very active period tho. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, bncho said: who the fuck cares about what the gfs shows? 0z it was too far north, 6z was decent, now 12z was too far south lol Damn right. It’s a dart board at this juncture anyways. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 baja s/w cuts off for a bit and might be trying to move again at 180 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 AI GFS being way north of OP is a good sign. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just saying....doing pbp doesn't mean I'm endorsing it or sweating any model...especially past 100 hours....shit, 72 hours these days. Nobody especially should rise and fall based on a model that moved a storm like 1000 miles over 3 runs. But they tend to do that beyond D4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Just saying....doing pbp doesn't mean I'm endorsing it or sweating any model...especially past 100 hours....shit, 72 hours these days. Nobody especially should rise and fall based on a model that moved a storm like 1000 miles over 3 runs. But they tend to do that beyond D4 Ya I mean we all know 18z will probably be over Toronto next run anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Anyway, yeah GFS just crushing any and everything. Even that baja s/w getting pressed out. Well, see yinz later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, TSSN+ said: Ya I mean we all know 18z will probably be over Toronto next run anyway. We gon' get that classic cutter run at some point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1040 high just coming down and chilling over Ia/MN at 204. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
somecallmetim Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1035 high sliding directly over top could be a somewhat inhibiting factor. If anything does come later in this scenario, every flake should count. That would make me happy, as every flake is sacred, every flake is great. If any flake is wasted, I get quite irate. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Gotta see what happens with that energy in the southwest. Canadian looks tastier so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 18 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: AI GFS long duration thing They don’t have the upstairs temps, so it’s hard to be sure, but that maybe looks icy to start around here with temps crashing as the precip picks up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Canadian has stuff down south, but that 1040 high over WI is unfortunate attm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Cold and dry 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Canadian does have a spare down south west and h5 looks better back that way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Nevermind...that too looks like it's gonna get crushed. 12z theme so far is suppressive. can't wait to see the new theme at 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Canadian does have a spare down south west and h5 looks better back that way... It all slides south. But compared to 0z which showed basically nothing it’s a decent step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, stormtracker said: Nevermind...that too looks like it's gonna get crushed. 12z theme so far is suppressive. can't wait to see the new theme at 18z CMC was really close to a long duration event. And to have the system just S of us all at this range is all we can ask for. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Yeah, southern slider. SE forum loving these runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I forgot, 98% of yous guys want to be in the bullseye at this range, so yeah... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts