January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

12z GFS is interesting so far, might be suppressive though

With the current placement of confluence it simply won’t hit us. However that might move east and let the sw vort eventually move moisture into our area. 

[stormtracker]

So, gonna be cautious here because the H5 map looks like it could turn things around in later panels...we'll see

but as of now, that cold is killing our asses

[stormtracker]

But yeah, it's just so suppressive still. Everything pushed along the gulf

[bncho]

awful 1040 high placement

[MN Transplant]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

So, gonna be cautious here because the H5 map looks like it could turn things around in later panels...we'll see

but as of now, that cold is killing our asses

Watching that 500 low move SE into Baja is something else

[stormtracker]

Heh, N GA Carolina winter storm!

[stormtracker]

Just now, MN Transplant said:

Watching that 500 low move SE into Baja is something else

Looks like it's about to get cut off/be a spinner

[bncho]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Heh, N GA Carolina winter storm!

who the fuck cares about what the gfs shows? 0z it was too far north, 6z was decent, now 12z was too far south lol

[Scraff]

It’s a good thing nobody cares about what the GFS shows 7 days out. 

[stormtracker]

Just now, bncho said:

who the fuck cares about what the gfs shows? 0z it was too far north, 6z was decent, now 12z was too far south lol

I think we all kinda give a fuck about it....just can't be silly and buy into at 100+ hours these days

[Ralph Wiggum]

Wow, a few of us (not all) thought 1/24ish thing was going to be too far N but set the stage for the followup. Now suppression for the 1st storm, who knows what the Baja Blast goon system is going to do. Very volatile.and very active period tho.

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

who the fuck cares about what the gfs shows? 0z it was too far north, 6z was decent, now 12z was too far south lol

Damn right. It’s a dart board at this juncture anyways. 

[stormtracker]

baja s/w cuts off for a bit and might be trying to move again at 180

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

AI GFS being way north of OP is a good sign. 

[stormtracker]

Just saying....doing pbp doesn't mean I'm endorsing it or sweating any model...especially past 100 hours....shit, 72 hours these days.   Nobody especially should rise and fall based on a model that moved a storm like 1000 miles over 3 runs.      But they tend to do that beyond D4

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Just saying....doing pbp doesn't mean I'm endorsing it or sweating any model...especially past 100 hours....shit, 72 hours these days.   Nobody especially should rise and fall based on a model that moved a storm like 1000 miles over 3 runs.      But they tend to do that beyond D4

Ya I mean we all know 18z will probably be over Toronto next run anyway. 

[stormtracker]

Anyway, yeah GFS just crushing any and everything.  Even that baja s/w getting pressed out.  Well, see yinz later.   

[stormtracker]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Ya I mean we all know 18z will probably be over Toronto next run anyway. 

We gon' get that classic cutter run at some point.

[stormtracker]

1040 high just coming down and chilling over Ia/MN at 204.  lol. 

[somecallmetim]

1035 high sliding directly over top could be a somewhat inhibiting factor. If anything does come later in this scenario, every flake should count. That would make me happy, as every flake is sacred, every flake is great. If any flake is wasted, I get quite irate. 

[87storms]

Gotta see what happens with that energy in the southwest.  Canadian looks tastier so far.

[mattie g]

18 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

AI GFS long duration thing

They don’t have the upstairs temps, so it’s hard to be sure, but that maybe looks icy to start around here with temps crashing as the precip picks up.

[stormtracker]

Canadian has stuff down south, but that 1040 high over WI is unfortunate attm

[MN Transplant]

Cold and dry

[stormtracker]

Canadian does have a spare down south west and h5 looks better back that way...

[stormtracker]

Nevermind...that too looks like it's gonna get crushed.   12z theme so far is suppressive.  can't wait to see the new theme at 18z

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Canadian does have a spare down south west and h5 looks better back that way...

It all slides south. But compared to 0z which showed basically nothing it’s a decent step. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Nevermind...that too looks like it's gonna get crushed.   12z theme so far is suppressive.  can't wait to see the new theme at 18z

CMC was really close to a long duration event. And to have the system just S of us all at this range is all we can ask for.

[stormtracker]

Yeah, southern slider.   SE forum loving these runs

[Ralph Wiggum]

I forgot, 98% of yous guys want to be in the bullseye at this range, so yeah...