January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[NorthArlington101]

Flipping over… would be a painful wait but hopefully worth it 

[Eskimo Joe]

Closed 500 low over western/central Tennessee by HR 111. Surface low over western South Carolina. Everyone east of I-81 starts as rain, but the flip to snow seems imminent.

[SnowenOutThere]

118 temps are iffy

[peribonca]

Anyone else loving the upper levels but worried about lack of cold air?

[wxmeddler]

6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

The height lines seemed backed a smidge further west with more vorticity in the main lobe angled west. Additionally, the ribbon of vorticity running out ahead of the lobe (paving its path) seems to be a bit more intense and catching the southern energy better. So far I am hopeful.

Agreed. The tough issue with this potential that can't be changed is the approach of the pacific s/w. Normally, I like the "ribbon" coming through the Yellowstone region in a ESE direction. With the ridge so firmly anchored over Northern California, we're dealing with a wave diving out from the Dakotas to the SSE.

But there's more than one way to bake a cake, and this seems to be one of them. Whatever works. lol

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

118 temps are iffy

[bncho]

[NorthArlington101]

Snow DC and a bit east by 120

[TSSN+]

Just now, peribonca said:

Anyone else loving the upper levels but worried about lack of cold air?

No. It’ll start as rain but go to snow as the ull passes 

[mitchnick]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

118 temps are iffy

They'll crash 

[Eskimo Joe]

To my eye, this is very Jan 26, 2011 esque

[Solution Man]

Wait for it

[IronTy]

Well I see Southern Maryland is back to its rightful location sweating the rain/snow line, everything is looking like a classic setup - lock it in. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

118 temps are iffy

Yikes 41F in DC. The problem is we are just coming out of +epo which keeps the northern stream cutoff somewhat. 

[Terpeast]

Good hold by the gfs. I like the h5 vort being further south and west of previous runs, temps be damned. This is the path to victory 

[NorthArlington101]

h5 was so good… surface so mediocre. Whatever. We’re alive another run. 

[SnowenOutThere]

I really doubt that surface low ends up being where it is considering it forms over central NC and not over the usual coastal boundary interaction. Verbatim is an interesting snow map

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

h5 was so good… surface so mediocre. Whatever. We’re alive another run. 

The “kicker” or whatever we want to call it these days is stronger/running more interference, I think 

[wxmeddler]

Can't be upset with this at 5 days out. Not worth worrying about about the details (temps, banding, etc) now. 

[SnowenOutThere]

3 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

Agreed. The tough issue with this potential that can't be changed is the approach of the pacific s/w. Normally, I like the "ribbon" coming through the Yellowstone region in a ESE direction. With the ridge so firmly anchored over Northern California, we're dealing with a wave diving out from the Dakotas to the SSE.

But there's more than one way to bake a cake, and this seems to be one of them. Whatever works. lol

I mean from what is advertised it makes sense but its just crazy to see the main vorticity go from central MN to central MO without moving any further east. An additional question I have is what makes some vorticity to be ropes vs lobes. I understand its a measure of small air parcels spinning counterclockwise which indicates diffusion in the atmosphere which is tied to upper level winds and temp advection but still cant quite grasp why it actually appears like it does.

[TSSN+]

Just now, wxmeddler said:

Can't be upset with this at 5 days out. Not worth worrying about about the details (temps, banding, etc) now. 

Ya with the h5 looks like that surface will start showing some big runs. 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

The “kicker” or whatever we want to call it these days is stronger/running more interference, I think 

Call it storm 2/Cape.

[TSSN+]

CMC still not even in the ballpark 

[Ji]

CMC still not even in the ballpark 

It’s bad unusually bad this year

[Ji]

We don’t get these h5 looks very much. It would shameful to waste another one

[mitchnick]

AI GFS not that interested with light amounts. Inch or less? That's a guess.

[TSSN+]

Just now, mitchnick said:

AI GFS not that interested with light amounts. Inch or less? That's a guess.

That’s nothing changed from its previous runs 

[SnowenOutThere]

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

CMC still not even in the ballpark 

I think it was still a minor improvement H5 level

[TSSN+]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

I think it was still a minor improvement H5 level

Looked worse to me

 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

That’s nothing changed from its previous runs 

Take a look at our NWS forecast for tomorrow.