NorthArlington101 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Flipping over… would be a painful wait but hopefully worth it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Closed 500 low over western/central Tennessee by HR 111. Surface low over western South Carolina. Everyone east of I-81 starts as rain, but the flip to snow seems imminent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 118 temps are iffy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Anyone else loving the upper levels but worried about lack of cold air? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: The height lines seemed backed a smidge further west with more vorticity in the main lobe angled west. Additionally, the ribbon of vorticity running out ahead of the lobe (paving its path) seems to be a bit more intense and catching the southern energy better. So far I am hopeful. Agreed. The tough issue with this potential that can't be changed is the approach of the pacific s/w. Normally, I like the "ribbon" coming through the Yellowstone region in a ESE direction. With the ridge so firmly anchored over Northern California, we're dealing with a wave diving out from the Dakotas to the SSE. But there's more than one way to bake a cake, and this seems to be one of them. Whatever works. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: 118 temps are iffy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Snow DC and a bit east by 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, peribonca said: Anyone else loving the upper levels but worried about lack of cold air? No. It’ll start as rain but go to snow as the ull passes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: 118 temps are iffy They'll crash 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 To my eye, this is very Jan 26, 2011 esque 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Wait for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Well I see Southern Maryland is back to its rightful location sweating the rain/snow line, everything is looking like a classic setup - lock it in. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: 118 temps are iffy Yikes 41F in DC. The problem is we are just coming out of +epo which keeps the northern stream cutoff somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Good hold by the gfs. I like the h5 vort being further south and west of previous runs, temps be damned. This is the path to victory 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 h5 was so good… surface so mediocre. Whatever. We’re alive another run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I really doubt that surface low ends up being where it is considering it forms over central NC and not over the usual coastal boundary interaction. Verbatim is an interesting snow map 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: h5 was so good… surface so mediocre. Whatever. We’re alive another run. The “kicker” or whatever we want to call it these days is stronger/running more interference, I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Can't be upset with this at 5 days out. Not worth worrying about about the details (temps, banding, etc) now. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3 minutes ago, wxmeddler said: Agreed. The tough issue with this potential that can't be changed is the approach of the pacific s/w. Normally, I like the "ribbon" coming through the Yellowstone region in a ESE direction. With the ridge so firmly anchored over Northern California, we're dealing with a wave diving out from the Dakotas to the SSE. But there's more than one way to bake a cake, and this seems to be one of them. Whatever works. lol I mean from what is advertised it makes sense but its just crazy to see the main vorticity go from central MN to central MO without moving any further east. An additional question I have is what makes some vorticity to be ropes vs lobes. I understand its a measure of small air parcels spinning counterclockwise which indicates diffusion in the atmosphere which is tied to upper level winds and temp advection but still cant quite grasp why it actually appears like it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, wxmeddler said: Can't be upset with this at 5 days out. Not worth worrying about about the details (temps, banding, etc) now. Ya with the h5 looks like that surface will start showing some big runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: The “kicker” or whatever we want to call it these days is stronger/running more interference, I think Call it storm 2/Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 CMC still not even in the ballpark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 CMC still not even in the ballpark It’s bad unusually bad this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 We don’t get these h5 looks very much. It would shameful to waste another one 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 AI GFS not that interested with light amounts. Inch or less? That's a guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, mitchnick said: AI GFS not that interested with light amounts. Inch or less? That's a guess. That’s nothing changed from its previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: CMC still not even in the ballpark I think it was still a minor improvement H5 level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: I think it was still a minor improvement H5 level Looked worse to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: That’s nothing changed from its previous runs Take a look at our NWS forecast for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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