January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[stormtracker]

23 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Transient 50-50 lows are often not helpful outside of perfect timing/luck. Its simply a low moving through that location. A 50-50 low that is useful is part of a -NAO rex block, in which case it is quasi-stationary.

You know that I know that you know that we're going to be tracking the cape storm and it's legit.   You can keep being modest now, that's why we love you.  But you know that I know that you know. 

[CAPE]

15 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You know that I know that you know that we're going to be tracking the cape storm and it's legit.   You can keep being modest now, that's why we love you.  But you know that I know that you know. 

Both windows have their flaws, but that's almost always the case with snow chances at our latitude. We need some luck with timing and wave interactions most of the time. It's how we roll. Mid month is pretty close on most recent runs, and a pretty good bet these modeled outcomes are the result of some amount of error wrt wave spacing and timing- still 6 days out.

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

I'm trusting PSU over JB any day of the week

 Me too!!..Definitely!!!!

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, pazzo83 said:

yeah i pretty much trust them more than anyone else lol.  Some of our TV mets are pretty good too.

 I agree. I can understand using analogs to a point. But I think JB uses analogs too much, no matter how many different variables there are.  He will follow an analog over a cliff if it agrees with his thinking.

[mattie g]

6 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

when's the last time we really had a cutter go up the spine of the Apps like old times?  Start off as heavy snow bc of CAD, turn into heavy rain.  Temps shoot up to 60+ or whatever.  Thunderstorms.  Cleveland or Detroit get like a foot. Brutal cold on the backside.

No thanks. The worst.

[aldie 22]

Hey guys trying to catch up...I know we are tracking snow potential but more importantly how warm are we going to get in a few weeks?

[mattie g]

11 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Hey guys trying to catch up...I know we are tracking snow potential but more importantly how warm are we going to get in a few weeks?

I heard we’re going to get to 80, so our snowpack will get nuked.

[Solution Man]

17 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Hey guys trying to catch up...I know we are tracking snow potential but more importantly how warm are we going to get in a few weeks?

[WxUSAF]

@winter_warlock find the banter thread dude

[winter_warlock]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

@winter_warlock find the banter thread dude

Oops sry I thought I posted it in the banter thread. I deleted it lol 

[stormtracker]

That H5 map on the Icon is just so frustratingly wonderful @144.  So close, but so far

[Ralph Wiggum]

9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

That H5 map on the Icon is just so frustratingly wonderful @144.  So close, but so far

Dont fret...it is merely setting up for the Cape storm window.

[Ji]

That H5 map on the Icon is just so frustratingly wonderful @144.  So close, but so far

Blame the cape storm

[winter_warlock]

13 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

That H5 map on the Icon is just so frustratingly wonderful @144.  So close, but so far

I'd still rather have that at 144 instead of being in the bullseye. Lots of time to improve 

[winter_warlock]

Tropical tidbits has lots of missing frames jumps from 144 to 180 lol

[DMAC98]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

Tropical tidbits has lots of missing frames jumps from 144 to 180 lol

The frames do seem to load faster/more consistently on Pivotalweather...speaking of which the GFS runs quicker on CyclonicWx so I tend to use that

[winter_warlock]

Just now, DMAC98 said:

The frames do seem to load faster/more consistently on Pivotalweather...speaking of which the GFS runs quicker on CyclonicWx so I tend to use that

I'll have to try that thanks!!

[DMAC98]

10 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

I'll have to try that thanks!!

np

Yeah I noticed it a while ago during hurricane season. My only complaint is I think there should be more localized regional parameters, there's one for the entire eastern half of the US but it would be nice if he could split it into specific regions like the Northeast, Southeast, etc.

[winter_warlock]

2 minutes ago, DMAC98 said:

np

Yeah I noticed it a while ago during hurricane season. My only complaint is I think there should be more localized regional parameters, there's one for the entire eastern half of the US but it would be nice if he could split it into specific regions like the Northeast, Southeast, etc.

 I got pivotal now ty bro!

[stormtracker]

Probably not going to make a ton of difference, but the ridging out west with the GFS now vs 18z is a bit higher.  H5 does show some subtle differences.  Let's see how this progresses down the line

[WEATHER53]

5 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Absolutely, 18z GFS is a long duration Warning level event this run.

I swear 2016 lined up a lot like that top one .  Went on snd on 

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Probably not going to make a ton of difference, but the ridging out west with the GFS now vs 18z is a bit higher.  H5 does show some subtle differences.  Let's see how this progresses down the line

Good start

[stormtracker]

Just now, Solution Man said:

Good start

Trof axis is further west than 18z so far...seems like that would be a positive, but with this year and where we live, I can't look too much into it

[NorthArlington101]

AIGFS is a weenie run if you work under the assumption that the AIs surface temps are broken 

[TSSN+]

H5 energy is trailing decently west of last run. This should be improved. 

[mattie g]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Probably not going to make a ton of difference, but the ridging out west with the GFS now vs 18z is a bit higher.  H5 does show some subtle differences.  Let's see how this progresses down the line

That energy is also farther SW and diving in harder than on prior runs.

[stormtracker]

Ok, so onto the next panel.  It's markedly different vs 18z...seems positive at h5, but sfc not terribly impressive

[mattie g]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

AIGFS is a weenie run if you work under the assumption that the AIs surface temps are broken 

Where do you get the AIGFS?

[stormtracker]

It's a much improved h5 look...just don't know if surface can't match up

[TSSN+]

This looks like it could be good trend!