January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[ravensrule]

51 minutes ago, bncho said:

Dude, don't worry about it. You have a son and wife to take care of. Relax!

Snow is more important than all of those things. What kind of weenie are you?. 

[Ji]

Snow is more important than all of those things. What kind of weenie are you?. 

[Duca892]

Most important run of the GFS since 6hrs ago

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Been quiet here not because I’m not excited about the threats, just been busy with family and work. 

I think this is one of those things where we won’t know what will happen until 48 hours or less till onset. 

Same. Just keeping an eye on it but don't really have anything to add other than what I already have.

[stormtracker]

22 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Same. Just keeping an eye on it but don't really have anything to add other than what I already have.

Come on man.  Crack open a 120 dog and be more festive about your storm.

[Solution Man]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Come on down.  Crack open a 120 dog and be more festive about your storm.

Buffalo trace also celebrating a bit of good news on my wife

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

Buffalo trace also celebrating a bit of good news on my wife

Hell yeah

[mattie g]

5 hours ago, stormtracker said:

About to be into a serious week of tracking next week.   The band's about to get back together yall.  Will the tour end in success or failure....

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, dallen7908 said:

Encouraging 3-4 week outlook. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

That does look very promising!!

[winter_warlock]

24 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

Most important run of the GFS since 6hrs ago

And the most important GFS run until 00z lol

[Ji]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

That does look very promising!!

too bad the models dont show this!

[winter_warlock]

Just now, Ji said:

too bad the models dont show this!

 Well that's a couple weeks out still hopefully models come around lol

[stormtracker]

So GFS so far seems just a hair flatter out west with the ridging.  

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

too bad the models dont show this!

 Leave it to Ji to smack us back to reality lol

[anotherman]

too bad the models dont show this!

[mitchnick]

Much more consolidated vort on 18z than 12z Gfs at 120hrs

[stormtracker]

Yeah, seems to be a bit of a step back from 12z.   Not gonna get it done for our latitude

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, anotherman said:

you never know but this does not look super great but its not shut the blinds i guess

[stormtracker]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Much more consolidated vort on 18z than 12z Gfs at 120hrs

Wish it helped.   But, at least we have the cards still in the general area

[stormtracker]

Shame too with that H5 map.  Let's see what the capetown storm does...

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS....positively tilted trough is bad....

[mitchnick]

Poor NC/SE VA weenies on this run

[TSSN+]

Still close enough on gfs to keep possible hope alive 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS....positively tilted trough is bad....

Never drops that far south vs prior runs.

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Wish it helped.   But, at least we have the cards still in the general area

i think its time to punt this storm. Too many things going against it including the following the cape storm. Lets hope storm A is a pos and leaves room for the cape storm to dominate

[stormtracker]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Still close enough on gfs to keep possible hope alive 

The right take.

[stormtracker]

Just now, Ji said:

i think its time to punt this storm. Too many things going against it including the following the cape storm. Lets hope storm A is a pos and leaves room for the cape storm to dominate

Yeah, based on the GFS 8 days out, I think you should punt.

Why not punt the whole winter based on the end of the run?   See you next year man.  Be safe.

[stormtracker]

Anyway, for the follow up, very early on..ridging out west is a bit higher..seems like a better look so far

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, based on the GFS 8 days out, I think you should punt.

Why not punt the whole winter based on the end of the run?   See you next year man.  Be safe.

I wish 

[winter_warlock]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

i think its time to punt this storm. Too many things going against it including the following the cape storm. Lets hope storm A is a pos and leaves room for the cape storm to dominate

 Punt it 8 days out???  We've had many storms not even show up till we were within 72 hours . I say wait till at were at least within 72 hours