January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[mitchnick]

36 minutes ago, Ji said:

Bam bam is in panic mode citing the pV now is on the wrong side

Their whole cold thesis was based on it being in Canada, obviously our side. Good luck getting it back on our side any time soon, if at all. It can happen, but it's not something you want to rely on if your cold forecast is predicated on it. 

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EURO.  Looks like the mini thaw peaks on January 9.  Hopefully, we will have something to track by next weekend for the second half of January. (By the way, this is very consistent with what the extended EURO has shown for several weeks.  No can kicks here....).

[GreyHat]

8 hours ago, Steve25 said:

I think until we get a decent snow event that comes to fruition there will be cliff jumpers any time there’s even the most slight projected warmup 

Why be a cliff jumper? There are warm ups every year. You'd be jumping every year as if you have nine lives.

[JenkinsJinkies]

6 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

Why be a cliff jumper? There are warm ups every year. You'd be jumping every year as if you have nine lives.

They’ve been burned by the years where the warmups started and never ended.

[bncho]

Pretty nice look IMO. 

[aldie 22]

6 minutes ago, bncho said:

Pretty nice look IMO. 

@mitchnick mitch what's wrong with it! 

[Kay]

14 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

Why be a cliff jumper? There are warm ups every year. You'd be jumping every year as if you have nine lives.

Psychologically, we humans have an ingrained tendency to believe pessimism protects us from pain and disappointment. It doesn't, of course. So it goes here. Endlessly reflecting on our own and each others' psychological status, every season, every week, every day and hour. As much or more discussed than weather, fr. Quite a hobby innit?  Can't forget to add the obvious: most of us are also very ill when it comes to snow.

[mitchnick]

16 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

@mitchnick mitch what's wrong with it! 

Temps 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Temps 

Jenkins, explain what is inaccurate about this post that justifies a weenie? Huh. Come on smart azz....explain.

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Jenkins, explain what is inaccurate about this post that justifies a weenie? Huh. Come on smart azz....explain.

We’ve seen numerous times how temp forecasts 2 weeks out flip flop as they get closer. Reminder that mid December showed a Boxing Day torch until the models flipped less than a week out.

 

Also if you’re taking weenie ratings this personally then that’s a you problem.

[bncho]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Temps 

ok there's definitely a discrepancy between WB and TT and the Euro site. Something might be wrong with WB (or vice versa)?

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

We’ve seen numerous times how temp forecasts 2 weeks out flip flop as they get closer. Reminder that mid December showed a Boxing Day torch until the models flipped less than a week out.

 

Also if you’re taking weenie ratings this personally then that’s a you problem.

Oh, so models flip flop is your only scientific explanation and you weenie me and everyone else you don't agree with?  You offer nothing dude...nothing

[Ralph Wiggum]

12 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Temps 

Those are 2m temps are generally a lot less accurate than the 850s for whatever reason.

 Also, those 4 degree an temps are not scorching in the MA. 

 

[baltosquid]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

ok there's definitely a discrepancy between WB and TT and the Euro site. Something might be wrong with WB (or vice versa)?

CFSR 1981-2010 climatology vs ECMWF ERA-5 1991-2020

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

ok there's definitely a discrepancy between WB and TT and the Euro site. Something might be wrong with WB (or vice versa)?

Tt climo is 1980-2010

Wb climo is 1991-2020

 Ninja'd by @baltosquid

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Those are 2m temps and generally less accurate than the 850s

 Also, those 4 degree an temps are not scorching in the MA. 

 

First of all, Aldie was being tongue in cheek, hence the . If no one can see that and doesn't know Aldie's post, you should stop commenting. Obviously, he was baiting me for a response, so I did just that. Did everybody just join yesterday? 

[JenkinsJinkies]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Oh, so models flip flop is your only scientific explanation and you weenie me and everyone else you don't agree with?  You offer nothing dude...nothing

You're taking weenie ratings way too seriously...

[nw baltimore wx]

5 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

You're taking weenie ratings way too seriously...

I wish you would.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

You're taking weenie ratings way too seriously...

No I'm not. You weenie everyone you don't agree with, not just me. There's a disagree emoji if you don't agree.

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I wish you would.

Ah yes, I should get bent out of shape over a rating sticker and lash out at the person who dealt it. That's a totally rational response.

[bncho]

lol what is this? the ENSO thread? are yall trying to cosplay snowman19 and MJO812? you guys are dumb lol

[nw baltimore wx]

Just now, JenkinsJinkies said:

Ah yes, I should get bent out of shape over a rating sticker and lash out at the person who dealt it. That's a totally rational response.

I’m not suggesting that at all. I’m simply saying that a “rational response” would be recognizing that a lot of people think a lot of your posts are drivel. 

But you do you. If they really bothered me, I’d use the ignore feature. You kind of entertain me because you seem so clueless. 

[ravensrule]

We just need some snow. This thread is becoming more painful than my anal fissure. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Ah yes, I should get bent out of shape over a rating sticker and lash out at the person who dealt it. That's a totally rational response.

Offer something that contradicts the post if you disagree and be prepared to defend it. Assuming you have anything legit that contradicts the original post, of course. Not just hit the weenie or any other emoji dissing the post.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, ravensrule said:

We just need some snow. This thread is becoming more painful than my anal fissure. 

RR to the rescue! Lol

[AlexD1990]

Oh my God it either needs to snow or someone needs to put Wellbutrin in the water supply

Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk

[IronTy]

Do weenie ratings actually count for something in the forum?  It seems like ravensrule weenies most posts but I just assumed it was a joke and didn't know it was a serious thing.  Where can I find my weenie count?

[mitchnick]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Bro, take a chill pill. You just said dude baited you, then you took the bait and cherry picked some torch map. Then I make a rational reply and you get bent out of shape because someone baited you? I'll go back to my window and resume watching this band of light snow fall here. Toodles.

I'm cool. You're cool. We were both kidding. We go way back.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, mitchnick said:

I'm cool. You're cool. We were both kidding. We go way back.

I deleted my post. I dont want to be drawn into this. Yes, we r good you are my brother from way back.

[JenkinsJinkies]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Offer something that contradicts the post if you disagree and be prepared to defend it. Assuming you have anything legit that contradicts the original post, of course. Not just hit the weenie or any other emoji dissing the post.

I mentioned that these models have been flip flopping all season for stuff that's more than a few days out. What's not helping with model accuracy is DOGE trickery messing up GFS and the integration of AI pretty much across the board.

Also if this is going where I think this is going I have made numerous comments saying that I'm not expecting a big dog event this year.