January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[mahk_webstah]

You have to think this comes north substantially. Might be on the northern fringe up here but in the end, I bet it’s moderate to heavy all the way from central New England down through DC. I realize that suppression is real and that that could happen but over running trends north usually especially in large scale over running set ups.

[jbenedet]

3 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Euro AI came North..  Euro close  Ukie a hit.. enjoy it 

[jbenedet]

North of I80 in PA is out of the game on the weekend threat. 
 

 

[mahk_webstah]

Suppression risk is high, but we’re five or six days out now so don’t we take the AI models significantly further north output seriously?

[jbenedet]

3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Suppression risk is high, but we’re five or six days out now so don’t we take the AI models significantly further north output seriously?

You don’t take the op runs over the EPS /GEFS at this stage. Inside day 4 you might start weighing them similarly.

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

You don’t take the op runs over the EPS /GEFS at this stage. Inside day 4 you might start weighing them similarly.

Fair enough. I’m just saying I feel like I’ve seen this scenario play out many times and it almost always trends north. But not always.  So I’m not really taking anything so to speak. It just seems that there are some signals that this will trend north.

[WxWatcher007]

I want to be on board. The opportunity is there. But you do have to be wary of the PV sitting on top of us this weekend. Now, maybe that moderates enough to blast this north, and once again it's good to see some guidance showing that essentially, but yeah, cautiously watching once again. 

[MJO812]

Ai Euro and AI GFS continue to show a huge snowstorm . Gefs is lighting up like a Christmas tree 

[jbenedet]

7 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Fair enough. I’m just saying I feel like I’ve seen this scenario play out many times and it almost always trends north. But not always.  So I’m not really taking anything so to speak. It just seems that there are some signals that this will trend north.

In terms of lead time I’d normally agree with you.

But this is as suppressive a look you can get based on airmass ( without mid level confluence).

We are filling in for Canada this weekend.

[jbenedet]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ai Euro and AI GFS continue to show a huge snowstorm . Gefs is lighting up like a Christmas tree 

Hopes and dreams.

[jbenedet]

To be sure, I thought the axis of heaviest precip would be closer to I80 a few days ago. Now that’s the margin to be out of this completely already, imo.

Trend hasn’t been good on a “north trend” if you zoom out to few days ago.

 

 

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Hopes and dreams.

Who ? Thats what the models show.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Who ? Thats what the models show.

GEFS didn’t show anything for the overrunning setup. They were suppressed. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

I agree that trends don't look good if you toss the AI models with the cold press from Canada..

However, I do like how consistent the AI's have been. 

Also PD2 is a pretty damn close analog and we know how that trended north last 48 hours..

Also the ops have been occasionally showing some hits.. Have to start getting some more op hits, looks like it's all about how the SW vort ejects and phases in..

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GEFS didn’t show anything for the overrunning setup. They were suppressed. 

00z GEFS was a broad light to mod hit from Norfolk to Portland Maine 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

00z GEFS was a broad light to mod hit from Norfolk to Portland Maine 

Yeah I was looking at 06z which was pretty ugly. Obviously that doesn’t mean the threat is gone but it truly is basically AI and Ukie versus other guidance right now. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I was looking at 06z which was pretty ugly. Obviously that doesn’t mean the threat is gone but it truly is basically AI and Ukie versus other guidance right now. 

Yes and regardless what model, Richmond is ground zero right now, some of the means are unreal.. Still 5.5 days out plenty of time to pull her north.. 

[SnoSki14]

35 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

North of I80 in PA is out of the game on the weekend threat. 
 

 

Way too early to make this declaration. 

At this stage the Euro was completely OTS on yesterday's system 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/feb-16-17-2003

Resemblance is wild.. need to trend this 250 miles north in 5.5 days.. @ORH_wxman whats your recollection on PD2 and the last 48 hours trend north?

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Way too early to make this declaration. 

At this stage the Euro was completely OTS on yesterday's system 

At this stage every model was, euro and gfs were completely out to see 48-60 hours out for Sunday's storm 

[ineedsnow]

38 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

they did so good with the last storm 

[ineedsnow]

25 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Hopes and dreams.

are you enjoying the snow that you said wasn't coming?

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

they did so good with the last storm 

Here's another real test to see how legit these AI models are. 

[ineedsnow]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Here's another real test to see how legit these AI models are. 

lol yup

[jbenedet]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Yes and regardless what model, Richmond is ground zero right now, some of the means are unreal.. Still 5.5 days out plenty of time to pull her north.. 

yes Richmond VA as ground zero…

 

5 days, but this is not a complex setup. No multiple shortwaves or potential phasing of streams type variability. I’m seeing most of the forecast is about a significant arctic airmass… the shortwave will ride the boundary…

 

That’s it. I think we gain a day or two of guidance accuracy given the lack of complexity here.

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

are you enjoying the snow that you said wasn't coming?

You need a new shtick.

 

I was all over this storm. 
 

 

[jbenedet]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Here's another real test to see how legit these AI models are. 

I guess you all miss the verification scores of the EPS/GEFS vs the ops at this lead time…it’s not even close.

[ineedsnow]

Just now, jbenedet said:

You need a new shtick.

 

I was all over this storm. 
 

 

[ineedsnow]

Just now, jbenedet said:

I guess you all miss the verification scores of the EPS/GEFS vs the ops at this lead time…it’s not even close.

awwww someone getting upset this morning 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

yes Richmond VA as ground zero…

 

5 days, but this is not a complex setup. No multiple shortwaves or potential phasing of streams type variability. I’m seeing most of the forecast is about a significant arctic airmass… the shortwave will ride the boundary…

 

That’s it. I think we gain a day or two of guidance accuracy given the lack of complexity here.

I think it's a combo of both as I'm noticing the runs that our south the SW shortwave gets left behind. Also we never want to be ground zero at day 5.5, rarely works out.