January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[jbenedet]

4 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

But we're only 2 1/2 weeks into winter... 

We have not had one fun storm to track…

 

Just hella cold.

Need I mentions the other “benefits” of this crap Pattern—

 

Heating bills up

ice melt use up

slips trips falls up

doggy depression up

boredom up

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd kill for this season....more than double the snowfall, and when it wasn't snowing, it was pleasant with minimal inconvenience or salt showering my vehicle.

 

 

 

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Another season that I'd take and run and at this point.

Snowfall up....heating bill and salt usage down.....

[Typhoon Tip]

Kind of with Scott on the mid monther ... for the time being, anyway.  I'm open to changes at 7+ days of course, but ugly overnight.

I didn't like 00z GEFs or the EPS regarding that period.   They were not representative of a type of system we'd expect to see emerging - better hints in prior cycles have regressed to ...something else.  This is all given to the blah blah PNA gobble-dee goop.

Both look like some kind of polar boundary with maybe a clipper on it? not very clear what that is... but the passage is NW-SE and not including much of any coherency to a coastal.  Basically unremarkable with what they do illustrate.  

Meanwhile, the operational GFS' 0z and slightly less so, 06z kind of does, but they just look weird.    So does the GGEM... 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Kind of with Scott on the mid monther ... for the time being, anyway.  I'm open to changes at 7+ days of course, but ugly overnight.

I didn't like 00z GEFs or the EPS regarding that period.   They were not representative of a type of system we'd expect to see emerging - better hints in prior cycles have regressed to ...something else.  This is all given to the blah blah PNA gobble-dee goop.

Both look like some kind of polar boundary with maybe a clipper on it? not very clear what that is... but the passage is NW-SE and not including much of any coherency to a coastal.  Basically unremarkable with what they do illustrate.  

Meanwhile, the operational GFS' 0z and slightly less so, 06z kind of does, but they just look weird.    So does the GGEM... 

Everything looks weird and seems off which is what I was alluding to last night. There’s a chance, but not really excited at the moment.

[Great Snow 1717]

18 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

 

We have not had one fun storm to track…

 

Just hella cold.

Need I mentions the other “benefits” of this crap Pattern—

 

Heating bills up

ice melt use up

slips trips falls up

doggy depression up

boredom up

I love cold weather but with that said the pattern as been a total borefest....multi year snow drought continues to roll on..

[moneypitmike]

53 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Because there isn’t a lot of agreement. 
At least many of us go back to bare ground soon. Another winter to remember. 

The lawn in Mattapoisett is looking great. A little frost on it this morning......but it's ready to green up. 

[Krs4Lfe]

24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Another season that I'd take and run and at this point.

That and 2024 were among the biggest ratters in NYC. We have more snow now than we had those winters. I’ll take almost anything other than 2012,2020,2023,2024. Putrid and barely any cold in those either 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I love cold weather but with that said the pattern as been a total borefest....multi year snow drought continues to roll on..

You almost have to hope for a mild pattern and roll the dice with a random bowling ball...I mean, at least in a mild pattern, you have dice to roll. We just can't get any phasing or moisture in these colder regimes. I'm just completely and utterly desperate for a break at this point.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

That and 2024 were among the biggest ratters in NYC. We have more snow now than we had those winters. I’ll take almost anything other than 2012,2020,2023,2024. Putrid and barely any cold in those either 

Right, but they were all better for snowfall IMBY....thus far. And I see very little hope of that reversing for at least 2 weeks. When it's cold, it snows south, southwest and east of me...when it's warm, it snows west, northwest and northeast of me.

[weatherwiz]

The upcoming period is going to come down to timing. If we can get timing to work out with shortwaves amplifying it will be fun, otherwise its going to be boring and dry. We're essentially in Kyle Schwarber mode now...either going to be hitting HR's or striking out immensely. He should be doing that for the Red Sox for the next 5-6 years 

[SouthCoastMA]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The upcoming period is going to come down to timing. If we can get timing to work out with shortwaves amplifying it will be fun, otherwise its going to be boring and dry. We're essentially in Kyle Schwarber mode now...either going to be hitting HR's or striking out immensely. He should be doing that for the Red Sox for the next 5-6 years 

The GFS OP likes the followup wave on the 16th, though super progressive. Hopefully models start to look more interesting..otherwise January gonna be a long and cold slog. 

Kyle Schwarber mode be giving to much credit to this stretch. More like Pokey Reese. Maybe we can get lucky and score one of his 44 career home runs. 

[Typhoon Tip]

32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Everything looks weird and seems off which is what I was alluding to last night. There’s a chance, but not really excited at the moment.

ah..  sorry.  I zone out usually after dark - unless there's something really going on

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

The GFS OP likes the followup wave on the 16th, though super progressive. Hopefully models start to look more interesting..otherwise January gonna be a long and cold slog. 

Given how I think the upcoming pattern is all about phasing potential, we're likely going to see some wild swings within OP solutions. What we want to continue seeing is either northern stream energy continuing to amplify or timing of northern/southern stream to be enough to yield potential for a phase as we get closer. Usually in these patterns or setups I don't focus too much on SLP output because whether a storm is shown is dependent on the phase. It's definitely an intriguing look but as Scott said it isn't perfect so its best to go through with caution. 

[SouthCoastMA]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Given how I think the upcoming pattern is all about phasing potential, we're likely going to see some wild swings within OP solutions. What we want to continue seeing is either northern stream energy continuing to amplify or timing of northern/southern stream to be enough to yield potential for a phase as we get closer. Usually in these patterns or setups I don't focus too much on SLP output because whether a storm is shown is dependent on the phase. It's definitely an intriguing look but as Scott said it isn't perfect so its best to go through with caution. 

Hey, I would take a Kyle Schwarber pattern in a second after this Pokey Reese stretch we've been in. I'd rather roll the dice with some higher end storms vs cold/dry - C-2", cutter, rinse wash repeat. 

[Typhoon Tip]

29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You almost have to hope for a mild pattern and roll the dice with a random bowling ball...I mean, at least in a mild pattern, you have dice to roll. We just can't get any phasing or moisture in these colder regimes. I'm just completely and utterly desperate for a break at this point.

This sort of hearkens back to the comments I made a month or so ago.  There's a pretty clear leitmotif over recent decade(s) that basically boils down to this statement:

The atmosphere can't seem to sustain cold without shearing disruption and/or negative interference. 

When ever it relaxes ... the bounce backs tend to be too warm. 

There's no attempt at subversion of CC into this idea ... it is what it is whether that's a part, or not. 

Anyway, even if that's just 40 ... 30% increased in circumstances, that's a pretty big chunk of standard frequency storm numbers lost to discord, which then means over the longer haul our probabilities are weighting down.  

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Hey, I would take a Kyle Schwarber pattern in a second after this Pokey Reese stretch we've been in. I'd rather roll the dice with some higher end storms vs cold/dry - C-2", cutter, rinse wash repeat. 

yup...sometimes you just need to swing to the fences 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This sort of hearkens back to the comments I made a month or so ago.  There's leitmotif over recent decade(s) that basically boils down to this statement:

The atmosphere can't seem to sustain cold without shearing disruption and/or negative interference. 

When ever it relaxes ... the bounce backs tend to be too warm.   

If that's even 40 ... 30% true, that's a pretty big chunk of standard frequency numbers lost, which then means over the longer haul our probabilities are weighting down.  

I think it's a combination of that AND the predominate MC forcing directing what opportunities for phasing there are, west and east of this region. That MC forcing is a Deconstructive influence on NE US phasing, which overlayed onto the overall trend for less phasing is BAD news for us. I'm confident the MC forcing will shift eventually...it's the overall trend for somewhat less phasing that probably won't.

Least of all, there is some bad luck, too...but the majority is more than that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Everyone is whacking it to the cold, but at the end of the day, the MJO still hasn't spent much time in the phases conducive for east coast phasing/major cyclogensis..it's largely been either null and void, or in the MC, which is what I forecast in my outlook. That should improve somewhat later...

[CoastalWx]

Should be midnight high in the 50s later tomorrow night for many in SNE. Too bad it wasn’t day time because near 60 could have been attainable. AWT. 

[CoastalWx]

Pretty much a week of AN to well AN with a cool shot thrown in. Again all well forecasted by guidance.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Pretty much a week of AN to well AN with a cool shot thrown in. Again all well forecasted by guidance and Ray last fall.

[weatherwiz]

At least we aren't the west...mountain areas going to be getting nada after today/tomorrow for the next few weeks. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

At least we aren't the west...mountain areas going to be getting nada after today/tomorrow for the next few weeks. 

All of the good skiing is in AK.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

All of the good skiing is in AK.

Certainly no lack of winter there. Anchorage has been in the ice bowl this week...some pretty decent cold for them given their proximity to the water. 

[HimoorWx]

Heard some form of frozen precipitation early last evening but didn't invest until this morning. Never seen ice quite like this. Snapped a picture of a few before they are gone. Longest pieces are half inch plus. Thoughts? 

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Everyone is whacking it to the cold, but at the end of the day, the MJO still hasn't spent much time in the phases conducive for east coast phasing/major cyclogensis..it's largely been either null and void, or in the MC, which is what I forecast in my outlook. That should improve somewhat later...

The MJO isn't triggering?    - just pointing this out in general...

The MJO has a constructive vs destructive large scale interference requirement with respect to the super synoptics ongoing in the hemisphere.  As an example of this, the N. Pac thing last month ... That was overwhelmingly a negative interference conflict at large planetary scales.  The Pacific just suppressed the wave from propagating E.     

So to your point, if the wave happens to be in constructive interference then it certainly will add/help modulate the ongoing synoptic foot

[Krs4Lfe]

Usually when Alaska and Europe is having a fantastic winter, we aren’t. The lack of cold and wintry weather across US (aside from Midwest and northeast) has been astonishing. I know some accounts keep harping on “2014 is coming back” but this is the farthest thing from that winter. Just mild and dry as far as eye can see 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Certainly no lack of winter there. Anchorage has been in the ice bowl this week...some pretty decent cold for them given their proximity to the water. 

I would need to look at the phases with respect to seasonal intervals, but that may also have to do with why we couldn't buy a storm...usually stormy patterns for AK aren't so great here. The fact that it was early in the season may have allowed for colder conditions out here relative if it had occurred mid/late winter, too....wave lengths and MJO correlations change at different junctures of the season. Again, just a thought...won't look in depth at this until May for the postseason write up.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Usually when Alaska and Europe is having a fantastic winter, we aren’t. The lack of cold and wintry weather across US (aside from Midwest and northeast) has been astonishing. I know some accounts keep harping on “2014 is coming back” but this is the farthest thing from that winter. Just mild and dry as far as eye can see 

Ninja.

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would need to look at the phases with respect to seasonal intervals, but that may also have to do with why we couldn't buy a storm...usually stormy patterns for AK aren't so great here. The fact that it was early in the season may have allowed for colder conditions out here relative if it had occurred mid/late winter, too....wave lengths and MJO correlations change at different junctures of the season. Again, just a thought...won't look in depth at this until May for the postseason write up.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I still think we see the +TNH @Krs4Lfe, so I get the 2014 comparison...but devil is in the details.