January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[40/70 Benchmark]

29 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Negative WPO was in the cards starting appearing beginning of November as many here pointed out. All signs pointed to colder solutions.  After a thaw can we make it a Pete Repete .Tack on the deep negative EPO balls cold. As the STS ramps up too. The elusive East Coast Mauler this year? 

That was a record ridge, though....didn't see anyone forecast that magnitude.

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, tamarack said:

The 1998 ice storm left a nice-looking white birch bent nearly 90°.  The tree was 7-8" diameter and had been 45-50 feet tall.  When I noticed it was lifting a bit, I tossed a rope over it about 25 feet from the stump, attached the rope to my come-along and to another tree.  Every few days I'd cinch up the rope and by mid-April the tree was back to nearly vertical.  We then moved to New Sharon on May 15 so I've no idea how that birch is doing now.

About 2" here, with off-on light snow, temp low 20s.

These small birches were bent over in the March 18 paste storm and are still bent crooked in 25

[HoarfrostHubb]

Good flakes now. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Whatever happens with the temperatures tomorrow and Friday, Saturday looks suspect to me.  That looks like meso-low/'tuck' times.   We are at the eastern end of a warm boundary that is pinned along or S of L.I., with +D(PP) moving across QUE, with damming already nosing down to the Pike like that? 

good luck.  Might even end up being another ZR issue with that.

[Typhoon Tip]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That was a record ridge, though....didn't see anyone forecast that magnitude.

To me it was all more than that.

...the entire hemispheric layout was not anticipated.   That's what it means to be 'highly anomalous' but semantics aside. 

That was not a canonical WPO ... it was a freak scenario that weighted the WPO and EPO ( oscillatory) down just because the ridge meandered some over a 4 week period, but that whole circumstance was something else.   Proper -WPOs are situated closer to the Siberia/NW Pacific.  The EPO is closer to Alaska...  That thing was centered over the dateline, slightly S of WPO latitudes, but was just enormous enough to pull on the index domains

Numerology of the indexes, without qualitative analysis?    tsk tsk

As an afterthought ... might look at the W Pacific warm eddy ... the Pacific resonant pattern of the first 1/3 of winter was suspiciously well placed downstream of that feature, where physics would want an atmospheric response.  Just sayn'

[40/70 Benchmark]

OT....but I think the really smart money is on a good winter next season, regardless of whether or not we salvage this year....not sure there has every been 3 consecutive shitty el Nino events in these parts...although I understand the CC dynamic at play and the minimizing of ENSO, etc.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

To me it was all more than that.

...the entire hemispheric layout was not anticipated.   That's what it means to be 'highly anomalous' but semantics aside. 

That was not a canonical WPO ... it was a freak scenario that weighted the WPO and EPO ( oscillatory) down just because the ridge meandered some over a 4 week period, but that whole circumstance was something else.   Proper -WPOs are situated closer to the Siberia/NW Pacific.  The EPO is closer to Alaska...  That thing was centered over the dateline, slightly S of WPO latitudes, but was just enormous enough to pull on the index. 

Numerology of the indexes, without qualitative analysis?    tsk tsk

Well, I was aiming for brevity, which I know isn't your strong suite ...but the time and place for that kind of detail is in the post-season analysis...not this thread.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

To me it was all more than that.

...the entire hemispheric layout was not anticipated.   That's what it means to be 'highly anomalous' but semantics aside. 

That was not a canonical WPO ... it was a freak scenario that weighted the WPO and EPO ( oscillatory) down just because the ridge meandered some over a 4 week period, but that whole circumstance was something else.   Proper -WPOs are situated closer to the Siberia/NW Pacific.  The EPO is closer to Alaska...  That thing was centered over the dateline, slightly S of WPO latitudes, but was just enormous enough to pull on the index. 

Numerology of the indexes, without qualitative analysis?    tsk tsk

Dont know in history where the ridge resides but any month where the WPO is negative 3 or lower has always meant BN east . Tsk Tsk for not knowing historical correlation 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Dont know in history where the ridge resides but any month where the WPO is negative 3 or lower has always meant BN east . Tsk Tsk for not knowing historical correlation 

Yea, the pattern hardly ever fits 100% neatly into these little boxes that we construct to quantify the atmosphere, but it helps.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Dont know in history where the ridge resides but any month where the WPO is negative 3 or lower has always meant BN east . Tsk Tsk for not knowing historical correlation 

 

The point - poorly conveyed by me .. heh - is that the typically causality for -WPO and -EPO responses were not likely what drove that N. Pacific resonant pattern. 

Therefore, it is not likely that anyone really saw that coming.   The silly "tsking" is not meant to trigger you.  It's just that assessing what's going on without qualitative analysis is inherently risky in general.

[Damage In Tolland]

21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Whatever happens with the temperatures tomorrow and Friday, Saturday looks suspect to me.  That looks like meso-low/'tuck' times.   We are at the eastern end of a warm boundary that is pinned along or S of L.I., with +D(PP) moving across QUE, with damming already nosing down to the Pike like that? 

good luck.  Might even end up being another ZR issue with that.

Looks like a cold sector rain or icing 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

The point - poorly conveyed by me .. heh - is that the typically causality for -WPO and -EPO responses were not likely what drove that N. Pacific resonant pattern. 

Therefore, it is not likely that anyone really saw that coming.   The silly "tsking" is not meant to trigger you.  It's just that assessing what's going on without qualitative analysis is inherently risky in general.

So you are arguing that it was a hybrid response to ridging equally dispersed between the WPO and EPO domains? Is it a coincidence that that WPO registered so deeply negative? Honest question, not meant to be snarky...

I think the PV being pinned to our side of the hemisphere also helped...we don't get that consistent magnitude of cold otherwise, regardless of the nuances of the north Pacific.

[Damage In Tolland]

Flipped over to light snow here at the tail end. Socked in with fog and pine trees doing a solid boob sag with icing 

[moneypitmike]

Driving was tough until PWM.  Temps in 20’s until about York.  30 in portsmouth.

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

The point - poorly conveyed by me .. heh - is that the typically causality for -WPO and -EPO responses were not likely what drove that N. Pacific resonant pattern. 

Therefore, it is not likely that anyone really saw that coming.   The silly "tsking" is not meant to trigger you.  It's just that assessing what's going on without qualitative analysis is inherently risky in general.

Really though in early Nov all extended modeling showed a flip to a massive negative WPO development for Dec. Cold solutions were no surprise. Triggered?  Hardly. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Flipped over to light snow here at the tail end. Socked in with fog and pine trees doing a solid boob sag with icing 

Congrats all rain after minor ice last night. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Congrats all rain after minor ice last night. 

I was honestly hoping for all rain...needing to commute over an hour to work, and the wife needing to get the 4 little ones to school/day care will do that.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

So you are arguing that it was a hybrid response to ridging equally dispersed between the WPO and EPO domains? Is it a coincidence that that WPO registered so deeply negative? Honest question, not meant to be snarky...

I think the PV being pinned to our side of the hemisphere also helped...we don't get that consistent magnitude of cold otherwise, regardless of the nuances of the north Pacific.

I tact this onto to the end of that missive as "plausible" explanation.   

As an afterthought ... might look at the W Pacific warm eddy ... the Pacific resonant pattern of the first 1/3 of winter was suspiciously well placed downstream of that feature, where physics would want an atmospheric response.  Just sayn'

The Pac warm eddy is new to history.   This resonant thing was also ... "new ish" to history.  And geo-physically fits in a spatial distribution sense of it.  It's an idea

[Brian5671]

sun's out here and 40-first 40 since 12/29

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was honestly hoping for all rain...needing to commute over an hour to work, and the wife needing to get the 4 little ones to school/day care will do that.

So many years I was conflicted with wanting feet of snow or inches of ice only to remember it meant no school for a boatload of teenagers in the house and me usually getting called into work for snow removal or power issues. I never wavered though still wanted history.  Thankfully 2015 occurred after they all moved out.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

So many years I was conflicted with wanting feet of snow or inches of ice only to remember it meant no school for a boatload of teenagers in the house and me usually getting called into work for snow removal or power issues. I never wavered though still wanted history.  Thankfully 2015 occurred after they all moved out.

Well, a worthwhile event is different...sign me up...we wouldn't go anywhere. But it's these nuisance-level inconveniences that have consistently plagued day-to-day life this season that I'd prefer to avoid, unless they were occurring over top of some exotically deep pack, which clearly doesn't exist.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, a worthwhile event is different...sign me up...we wouldn't go anywhere. But it's these nuisance-level inconveniences that have consistently plagued day-to-day life this season that I'd prefer to avoid, unless they were occurring over top of some exotically deep pack, which clearly doesn't exist.

Jan 1994 drove me nuts. Think they missed a bunch and had like 4 delays. All for minor events and it was so cold no one left the house 

[adam038]

Nice snowy finish. Should make the roads even more fun.


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[Ginx snewx]

Just now, adam038 said:

Nice snowy finish. Should make the roads even more fun.


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Are you the Adam from IJD who was on the radio?

[wx2fish]

40 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Whatever happens with the temperatures tomorrow and Friday, Saturday looks suspect to me.  That looks like meso-low/'tuck' times.   We are at the eastern end of a warm boundary that is pinned along or S of L.I., with +D(PP) moving across QUE, with damming already nosing down to the Pike like that? 

good luck.  Might even end up being another ZR issue with that.

12z GFS is pretty icy this weekend for Dendrite land after some sleet/snow. Like you said, we get a meso low with a pretty good orientation to back winds more northerly across the interior. Limiting factor is the crappy airmass 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I tact this onto to the end of that missive as "plausible" explanation.   

As an afterthought ... might look at the W Pacific warm eddy ... the Pacific resonant pattern of the first 1/3 of winter was suspiciously well placed downstream of that feature, where physics would want an atmospheric response.  Just sayn'

The Pac warm eddy is new to history.   This resonant thing was also ... "new ish" to history.  And geo-physically fits in a spatial distribution sense of it.  It's an idea

IDK...looks textbook -WPO to me.... not saying you're wrong, but may just be lost on me.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

IDK...looks textbook -WPO to me.

Feed me 75% of those years and my 56 inches from now until April verifies 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

IDK...looks textbook -WPO to me.... not saying you're wrong, but may just be lost on me.

It is probably displaced a bit east...I see that.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It is probably displaced a bit east...I see that.

yeah...it's not hugely obvious I guess.  But, I also don't remember the daily charts looking that ideal, either.  I recall distinctly that it was S of that some of the time. 

Also, I'm kinda more interested in the "stuck resonance" behavior too.     It was really something.  Other notable was how the MJO was squashed out of existence that whole time too because the two negatively interfered and the N. Pac was daddy.    Tentative proof of that ... the resonance decays and summarily the RMM has/is released/ing the beast. 

[adam038]

Are you the Adam from IJD who was on the radio?

No. I’m a far less important Adam


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