January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[BxEngine]

2.8 nyack

[MJO812]

24 minutes ago, SI Mailman said:

10 years ago this week, we were tracking what would end up being a monster.  

Next weekend has big overrunning potential .

[sussexcountyobs]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Next weekend has big overrunning potential .

Yes it does.

[uofmiami]

38 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

if anyone has any totals from today for NJ/NY area lmk and i will include in a totals map

1” in Syosset 

[sussexcountyobs]

39 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

if anyone has any totals from today for NJ/NY area lmk and i will include in a totals map

4.7" at Canistear Reservoir in Vernon, NJ. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

2 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

if anyone has any totals from today for NJ/NY area lmk and i will include in a totals map

4.8 inches

Highland Mills, Orange County NY 

Thanks

[wdrag]

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Following today's snowfall, somewhat cooler air will move in tonight, setting the stage for another winter event tomorrow.

A coastal storm will develop off the Southeast coast and then track toward but perhaps just south and east of the 40N-70W benchmark. In a change from recent days, the latest guidance brings the storm closer to the coast than had previously been shown. As a result, New York City and nearby areas will likely see 1"-3" of snow tomorrow into tomorrow night with some locally higher amounts around 4". There is a risk of mixed precipitation or rain for at least part of the event on Long Island, the Jersey shore, and perhaps into New York City and nearb areas. There remains a degree of uncertainty concerning the storm's track and rate of development.

Highs will be mainly in the lower and middle 30s in New York City on tomorrow and Monday. The temperature will fall toward or near freezing during tomorrow's snowfall. Arctic air will move into the region on Monday night. Tuesday could be the coldest day so far this season with highs struggling to reach the lower 20s and lows in the teens in New York City. Suburban areas could see single-digit lows, especially on Wednesday morning. Wednesday will be another unseasonably cold day. Temperatures will remain below normal through at least most of next week. 

After January 20th, conditions could become more favorable for snowfall, as a generally cold pattern continues. The probability of a PNA+ regime has continued to increase. PNA-related developments would have large implications for snowfall. A persistently positive PNA would have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. A mainly negative PNA would favor mainly small snowfalls. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +27.70 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.554 today. The PNA was +1.067, which is the highest since November 2, 2025 when the PNA was +1.071.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 72% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.6° (-1.1° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be at the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

I like your odds for a colder than normal January increasing, especially now that snow depth is creeping down to NYC, perhaps permitting a little more than modeled south and southeastward recurring cold shots the rest of the month. Enjoy to the max.  

I will probably have to admit both AI heavier (GFS, EC) qpf verifies more accurately than the seaward EPS qpf leading up to this event prior to today.   

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I like your odds for a colder than normal January increasing, especially now that snow depth is creeping down to NYC, perhaps permitting a little more than modeled south and southeastward recurring cold shots the rest of the month. Enjoy to the max.  

I will probably have to admit both AI heavier (GFS, EC) qpf verifies more accurately than the seaward EPS qpf leading up to this event prior to today.   

I'm certainly enjoying the snow and looking forward to the cold. It seems that the AI versions have a lot of merit even as they are still "learning." I've been impressed how far they've come in the past year. 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Its 28f,forecasted low of 30f..safe to say snow cover is our friend. Temps keep dropping here. Awaiting the next round. 

[MJO812]

Next weekend on icon.  Overrunning potential  

[Stormlover74]

Just now, wthrmn654 said:

My forecast low is 32 and I'm adjust l already at 30. It's there a sneaky cold pool or some sorta high that's feeding in a little cold?

Just the snowcover and lack of clouds at the moment

[wthrmn654]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Just the snowcover and lack of clouds at the moment

But I have no snow cover lol I'm on eastern Long Island lol

[Stormlover74]

Just now, wthrmn654 said:

But I have no snow cover lol I'm on eastern Long Island lol

Oh lol

[MANDA]

Total today was 3.4" with a melted total of .28 so a 12:1 ratio.  That is higher than I was expecting.

The melted total was pretty much in line with the best model consensus.

[Krs4Lfe]

25 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Next weekend on icon.  Overrunning potential  

GFS ai wants to cut during that period. Remains adamant on trough crashing into west coast which pumps heights in the east up. Pattern doesn’t support that at all thouhh. 

[Stormlover74]

Euro has a big storm next Monday and ridiculously cold next weekend 

[MJO812]

3 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said:

GFS ai wants to cut during that period. Remains adamant on trough crashing into west coast which pumps heights in the east up. Pattern doesn’t support that at all thouhh. 

How about the other models?

[WeatherGeek2025]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Next weekend on icon.  Overrunning potential  

i don't trust that model 

[MJO812]

18 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i don't trust that model 

Euro also shows it

[SnoSki14]

3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro has a big storm next Monday and ridiculously cold next weekend 

Big cold dome in place with trough expanding west signals big overrunning potential imo. 

Models strongly hinting at this now. 

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, wdrag said:

I like your odds for a colder than normal January increasing, especially now that snow depth is creeping down to NYC, perhaps permitting a little more than modeled south and southeastward recurring cold shots the rest of the month. Enjoy to the max.  

I will probably have to admit both AI heavier (GFS, EC) qpf verifies more accurately than the seaward EPS qpf leading up to this event prior to today.   

At least according to Ryan’s stats the EC-AIFS is the new forecast leader through 120 hrs. 
 

 

[wdrag]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

At least according to Ryan’s stats the EC-AIFS is the new forecast leader through 120 hrs. 
 

 

Very helpful - I hadn't tracked   I like that this is out to 5 days.  Definitely have to factor in and not waste too much time on the GFS. Thank You!

[wdrag]

9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I'm certainly enjoying the snow and looking forward to the cold. It seems that the AI versions have a lot of merit even as they are still "learning." I've been impressed how far they've come in the past year. 

I'll be looking at your odds for coldest low in NYC since January 2019... am seeing EPS mins near zero, especially next Weeknd. Could be the modeling extremes but n questions whatsoever that the coldest air of the season is coming to the northeast USA somewhere 24-29th. NAEFS has been on it for two days. Good work there. 

[bluewave]

On 1/16/2026 at 7:32 AM, MJO812 said:

Phase 8 should help

Yeah, phase 8 would help to activate the STJ. Notice the forcing shifting east of the Dateline later in January. The only question is whether we will be able to realize the potential. Need all the pieces to come together just right. 
 

 

 

[wdrag]

This may be a bigger snow and ice storm coming around 25th or thereabouts. EC EPS probs... has shifted. little south past two days but probs increasing for the posted criteria... worthy of monitoring.  No comment on AI's since beyond 5 days.  

[donsutherland1]

7 minutes ago, wdrag said:

This may be a bigger snow and ice storm coming around 25th or thereabouts. EC EPS probs... has shifted. little south past two days but probs increasing for the posted criteria... worthy of monitoring.  No comment on AI's since beyond 5 days.  

There seems to be a pretty good signal for the 25th. Even the NBE shows > 0.75" QPF at that range.

[donsutherland1]

Overnight, there was a modest uptick in QPF. The general figure for NYC ranges from about 0.35"-0.45". The 12z NBM shows 0.38" with 0.27" from the coastal storm. 

Warm air advection snows are currently occurring. In parts of the region, readings are just warm enough for some light rain or mixed precipitation. Should precipitation rates increase, the temperature could drop toward 33° in NYC based on current wet bulb and dew point readings and the light rain there could flip to light snow.
As the coastal storm approaches offshore, colder air will be pressing into the region. There will likely be several hours of moderate to occasionally heavy snow especially from New York City north and east.

New York City will likely wind up with 2"-4" of snow. The NBM currently shows 3.0" for New York City. The colder areas to the north across interior southeastern New York State into Connecticut will likely see an area of 3"-6" snows.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

I'll be looking at your odds for coldest low in NYC since January 2019... am seeing EPS mins near zero, especially next Weeknd. Could be the modeling extremes but n questions whatsoever that the coldest air of the season is coming to the northeast USA somewhere 24-29th. NAEFS has been on it for two days. Good work there. 

I think the cold is real and we'll see readings well in the single digits. The figure is around 35%, but the warmer GEFS + timeframe uncertainty likely drive the lower probability.

[SACRUS]

28 / 22 light snow about 1.5 from this latest batch about 1.8 yesterday.  More snow later as coastal throws back moisture.   Cold the story the next 7 - 10 days with intervals much below normal cold and potential WAA / overrunning snows in the 1/24 - 1/27 range.

1/18:   Snow today 1 - 4 overall
1/19 - 1/23 : Overall Cold below normal (Much below normal  1/20 highs 20s / lows singles digis inland)
1/24 - 1/31:   Continued cold - Arctic clipper / front - 1/24, WAA/overrunning potential 1/25-1/27.  Very cold period 1/25-1/28 could see single digits to the coast / metro
2/1 - beyond : Moderation 

 

[SACRUS]

14 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I think the cold is real and we'll see readings well in the single digits. The figure is around 35%, but the warmer GEFS + timeframe uncertainty likely drive the lower probability.

Seeing some -25c or colder 850 temps showing up between 1/25 - 1/28 consecutively on recent runs.