January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[BxEngine]

2.8 nyack

[MJO812]

24 minutes ago, SI Mailman said:

10 years ago this week, we were tracking what would end up being a monster.  

Next weekend has big overrunning potential .

[sussexcountyobs]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Next weekend has big overrunning potential .

Yes it does.

[uofmiami]

38 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

if anyone has any totals from today for NJ/NY area lmk and i will include in a totals map

1” in Syosset 

[sussexcountyobs]

39 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

if anyone has any totals from today for NJ/NY area lmk and i will include in a totals map

4.7" at Canistear Reservoir in Vernon, NJ. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

2 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

if anyone has any totals from today for NJ/NY area lmk and i will include in a totals map

4.8 inches

Highland Mills, Orange County NY 

Thanks

[wdrag]

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Following today's snowfall, somewhat cooler air will move in tonight, setting the stage for another winter event tomorrow.

A coastal storm will develop off the Southeast coast and then track toward but perhaps just south and east of the 40N-70W benchmark. In a change from recent days, the latest guidance brings the storm closer to the coast than had previously been shown. As a result, New York City and nearby areas will likely see 1"-3" of snow tomorrow into tomorrow night with some locally higher amounts around 4". There is a risk of mixed precipitation or rain for at least part of the event on Long Island, the Jersey shore, and perhaps into New York City and nearb areas. There remains a degree of uncertainty concerning the storm's track and rate of development.

Highs will be mainly in the lower and middle 30s in New York City on tomorrow and Monday. The temperature will fall toward or near freezing during tomorrow's snowfall. Arctic air will move into the region on Monday night. Tuesday could be the coldest day so far this season with highs struggling to reach the lower 20s and lows in the teens in New York City. Suburban areas could see single-digit lows, especially on Wednesday morning. Wednesday will be another unseasonably cold day. Temperatures will remain below normal through at least most of next week. 

After January 20th, conditions could become more favorable for snowfall, as a generally cold pattern continues. The probability of a PNA+ regime has continued to increase. PNA-related developments would have large implications for snowfall. A persistently positive PNA would have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. A mainly negative PNA would favor mainly small snowfalls. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +27.70 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.554 today. The PNA was +1.067, which is the highest since November 2, 2025 when the PNA was +1.071.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 72% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.6° (-1.1° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be at the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

I like your odds for a colder than normal January increasing, especially now that snow depth is creeping down to NYC, perhaps permitting a little more than modeled south and southeastward recurring cold shots the rest of the month. Enjoy to the max.  

I will probably have to admit both AI heavier (GFS, EC) qpf verifies more accurately than the seaward EPS qpf leading up to this event prior to today.   

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I like your odds for a colder than normal January increasing, especially now that snow depth is creeping down to NYC, perhaps permitting a little more than modeled south and southeastward recurring cold shots the rest of the month. Enjoy to the max.  

I will probably have to admit both AI heavier (GFS, EC) qpf verifies more accurately than the seaward EPS qpf leading up to this event prior to today.   

I'm certainly enjoying the snow and looking forward to the cold. It seems that the AI versions have a lot of merit even as they are still "learning." I've been impressed how far they've come in the past year. 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Its 28f,forecasted low of 30f..safe to say snow cover is our friend. Temps keep dropping here. Awaiting the next round. 

[MJO812]

Next weekend on icon.  Overrunning potential  

[Stormlover74]

Just now, wthrmn654 said:

My forecast low is 32 and I'm adjust l already at 30. It's there a sneaky cold pool or some sorta high that's feeding in a little cold?

Just the snowcover and lack of clouds at the moment

[wthrmn654]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Just the snowcover and lack of clouds at the moment

But I have no snow cover lol I'm on eastern Long Island lol

[Stormlover74]

Just now, wthrmn654 said:

But I have no snow cover lol I'm on eastern Long Island lol

Oh lol

[MANDA]

Total today was 3.4" with a melted total of .28 so a 12:1 ratio.  That is higher than I was expecting.

The melted total was pretty much in line with the best model consensus.

[Krs4Lfe]

25 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Next weekend on icon.  Overrunning potential  

GFS ai wants to cut during that period. Remains adamant on trough crashing into west coast which pumps heights in the east up. Pattern doesn’t support that at all thouhh. 

[Stormlover74]

Euro has a big storm next Monday and ridiculously cold next weekend 

[MJO812]

3 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said:

GFS ai wants to cut during that period. Remains adamant on trough crashing into west coast which pumps heights in the east up. Pattern doesn’t support that at all thouhh. 

How about the other models?

[WeatherGeek2025]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Next weekend on icon.  Overrunning potential  

i don't trust that model 

[MJO812]

18 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i don't trust that model 

Euro also shows it