January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[MJO812]

24 minutes ago, SI Mailman said:

10 years ago this week, we were tracking what would end up being a monster.  

Next weekend has big overrunning potential .

[sussexcountyobs]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Next weekend has big overrunning potential .

Yes it does.

[uofmiami]

38 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

if anyone has any totals from today for NJ/NY area lmk and i will include in a totals map

1” in Syosset 

[sussexcountyobs]

39 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

if anyone has any totals from today for NJ/NY area lmk and i will include in a totals map

4.7" at Canistear Reservoir in Vernon, NJ. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

2 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

if anyone has any totals from today for NJ/NY area lmk and i will include in a totals map

4.8 inches

Highland Mills, Orange County NY 

Thanks

[wdrag]

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Following today's snowfall, somewhat cooler air will move in tonight, setting the stage for another winter event tomorrow.

A coastal storm will develop off the Southeast coast and then track toward but perhaps just south and east of the 40N-70W benchmark. In a change from recent days, the latest guidance brings the storm closer to the coast than had previously been shown. As a result, New York City and nearby areas will likely see 1"-3" of snow tomorrow into tomorrow night with some locally higher amounts around 4". There is a risk of mixed precipitation or rain for at least part of the event on Long Island, the Jersey shore, and perhaps into New York City and nearb areas. There remains a degree of uncertainty concerning the storm's track and rate of development.

Highs will be mainly in the lower and middle 30s in New York City on tomorrow and Monday. The temperature will fall toward or near freezing during tomorrow's snowfall. Arctic air will move into the region on Monday night. Tuesday could be the coldest day so far this season with highs struggling to reach the lower 20s and lows in the teens in New York City. Suburban areas could see single-digit lows, especially on Wednesday morning. Wednesday will be another unseasonably cold day. Temperatures will remain below normal through at least most of next week. 

After January 20th, conditions could become more favorable for snowfall, as a generally cold pattern continues. The probability of a PNA+ regime has continued to increase. PNA-related developments would have large implications for snowfall. A persistently positive PNA would have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. A mainly negative PNA would favor mainly small snowfalls. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +27.70 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.554 today. The PNA was +1.067, which is the highest since November 2, 2025 when the PNA was +1.071.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 72% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.6° (-1.1° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be at the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

I like your odds for a colder than normal January increasing, especially now that snow depth is creeping down to NYC, perhaps permitting a little more than modeled south and southeastward recurring cold shots the rest of the month. Enjoy to the max.  

I will probably have to admit both AI heavier (GFS, EC) qpf verifies more accurately than the seaward EPS qpf leading up to this event prior to today.   

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I like your odds for a colder than normal January increasing, especially now that snow depth is creeping down to NYC, perhaps permitting a little more than modeled south and southeastward recurring cold shots the rest of the month. Enjoy to the max.  

I will probably have to admit both AI heavier (GFS, EC) qpf verifies more accurately than the seaward EPS qpf leading up to this event prior to today.   

I'm certainly enjoying the snow and looking forward to the cold. It seems that the AI versions have a lot of merit even as they are still "learning." I've been impressed how far they've come in the past year. 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Its 28f,forecasted low of 30f..safe to say snow cover is our friend. Temps keep dropping here. Awaiting the next round. 

[MJO812]

Next weekend on icon.  Overrunning potential  

[Stormlover74]

Just now, wthrmn654 said:

My forecast low is 32 and I'm adjust l already at 30. It's there a sneaky cold pool or some sorta high that's feeding in a little cold?

Just the snowcover and lack of clouds at the moment

[wthrmn654]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Just the snowcover and lack of clouds at the moment

But I have no snow cover lol I'm on eastern Long Island lol

[Stormlover74]

Just now, wthrmn654 said:

But I have no snow cover lol I'm on eastern Long Island lol

Oh lol

[MANDA]

Total today was 3.4" with a melted total of .28 so a 12:1 ratio.  That is higher than I was expecting.

The melted total was pretty much in line with the best model consensus.

[Krs4Lfe]

25 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Next weekend on icon.  Overrunning potential  

GFS ai wants to cut during that period. Remains adamant on trough crashing into west coast which pumps heights in the east up. Pattern doesn’t support that at all thouhh. 

[Stormlover74]

Euro has a big storm next Monday and ridiculously cold next weekend 

[MJO812]

3 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said:

GFS ai wants to cut during that period. Remains adamant on trough crashing into west coast which pumps heights in the east up. Pattern doesn’t support that at all thouhh. 

How about the other models?

[WeatherGeek2025]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Next weekend on icon.  Overrunning potential  

i don't trust that model 

[MJO812]

18 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i don't trust that model 

Euro also shows it

[SnoSki14]

3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro has a big storm next Monday and ridiculously cold next weekend 

Big cold dome in place with trough expanding west signals big overrunning potential imo. 

Models strongly hinting at this now. 

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, wdrag said:

I like your odds for a colder than normal January increasing, especially now that snow depth is creeping down to NYC, perhaps permitting a little more than modeled south and southeastward recurring cold shots the rest of the month. Enjoy to the max.  

I will probably have to admit both AI heavier (GFS, EC) qpf verifies more accurately than the seaward EPS qpf leading up to this event prior to today.   

At least according to Ryan’s stats the EC-AIFS is the new forecast leader through 120 hrs. 
 

 

[wdrag]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

At least according to Ryan’s stats the EC-AIFS is the new forecast leader through 120 hrs. 
 

 

Very helpful - I hadn't tracked   I like that this is out to 5 days.  Definitely have to factor in and not waste too much time on the GFS. Thank You!

[wdrag]

9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I'm certainly enjoying the snow and looking forward to the cold. It seems that the AI versions have a lot of merit even as they are still "learning." I've been impressed how far they've come in the past year. 

I'll be looking at your odds for coldest low in NYC since January 2019... am seeing EPS mins near zero, especially next Weeknd. Could be the modeling extremes but n questions whatsoever that the coldest air of the season is coming to the northeast USA somewhere 24-29th. NAEFS has been on it for two days. Good work there. 

[wdrag]

This may be a bigger snow and ice storm coming around 25th or thereabouts. EC EPS probs... has shifted. little south past two days but probs increasing for the posted criteria... worthy of monitoring.  No comment on AI's since beyond 5 days.  

[donsutherland1]

7 minutes ago, wdrag said:

This may be a bigger snow and ice storm coming around 25th or thereabouts. EC EPS probs... has shifted. little south past two days but probs increasing for the posted criteria... worthy of monitoring.  No comment on AI's since beyond 5 days.  

There seems to be a pretty good signal for the 25th. Even the NBE shows > 0.75" QPF at that range.

[donsutherland1]

Overnight, there was a modest uptick in QPF. The general figure for NYC ranges from about 0.35"-0.45". The 12z NBM shows 0.38" with 0.27" from the coastal storm. 

Warm air advection snows are currently occurring. In parts of the region, readings are just warm enough for some light rain or mixed precipitation. Should precipitation rates increase, the temperature could drop toward 33° in NYC based on current wet bulb and dew point readings and the light rain there could flip to light snow.
As the coastal storm approaches offshore, colder air will be pressing into the region. There will likely be several hours of moderate to occasionally heavy snow especially from New York City north and east.

New York City will likely wind up with 2"-4" of snow. The NBM currently shows 3.0" for New York City. The colder areas to the north across interior southeastern New York State into Connecticut will likely see an area of 3"-6" snows.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

I'll be looking at your odds for coldest low in NYC since January 2019... am seeing EPS mins near zero, especially next Weeknd. Could be the modeling extremes but n questions whatsoever that the coldest air of the season is coming to the northeast USA somewhere 24-29th. NAEFS has been on it for two days. Good work there. 

I think the cold is real and we'll see readings well in the single digits. The figure is around 35%, but the warmer GEFS + timeframe uncertainty likely drive the lower probability.

[SACRUS]

28 / 22 light snow about 1.5 from this latest batch about 1.8 yesterday.  More snow later as coastal throws back moisture.   Cold the story the next 7 - 10 days with intervals much below normal cold and potential WAA / overrunning snows in the 1/24 - 1/27 range.

1/18:   Snow today 1 - 4 overall
1/19 - 1/23 : Overall Cold below normal (Much below normal  1/20 highs 20s / lows singles digis inland)
1/24 - 1/31:   Continued cold - Arctic clipper / front - 1/24, WAA/overrunning potential 1/25-1/27.  Very cold period 1/25-1/28 could see single digits to the coast / metro
2/1 - beyond : Moderation 

 

[SACRUS]

14 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I think the cold is real and we'll see readings well in the single digits. The figure is around 35%, but the warmer GEFS + timeframe uncertainty likely drive the lower probability.

Seeing some -25c or colder 850 temps showing up between 1/25 - 1/28 consecutively on recent runs.

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 66 (1990)
NYC: 66 (1990)
LGA: 64 (1990)
JFK: 59 (1990)


Lows:

EWR: -7 (1982)
NYC: 0 (1982)
LGA: 0 (1982)
JFK: 0 (1982)

Historical:

 

1857 - A great cold storm swept across the Atlantic Seaboard. Snowfall totals of 12 inches were common, whole gales caused shipwrecks and damage property on islands, and temperatures near zero prevailed from Virginia northward. Great drifts of snow blocked transportation. Richmond VA was cut off from Washington DC for a week. (David Ludlum)
1857:  Both Washington and Baltimore received 24 inches of snow from this storm and by the 19th with drifts up to 10 feet. Norfolk, VA reported snowdrifts as high as 20 feet. At Williamsburg, VA the temperature was only 3°F at the height of the snowstorm. The cold air behind the storm penetrated into Florida where the site of present day Miami had a temperature of 30°F. Boston reported a barometer of 28.91 inches during this storm. (p.34-35 Washington Weather Book 2002 by Ambrose, Henry, Weiss)

1893: The minimum temperature for the date is -6°F. in Washington, DC. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

1930: Oklahoma's coldest night on record occurred as the town of Watts dropped to -27 °F. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)
 

 

1943: Idaho's coldest night on record occurred as the low temperature dropped to 60 degrees below zero at Island Park Dam.

 

1950: Oregon continued in the grips of one of its worst winter months ever. A significant winter storm brought a thick glaze of ice to Columbia River Gorge, stopping automobile traffic in its tracks. Hundreds of motorists were stranded and had to be rescued by train. Even that wasn't easy with the coating of ice. The storm caused widespread power outages.  

1957: The record low temperature for the state of Massachusetts was set at Birch Hill Dam when the mercury fell to -35°. This was broken on 1/22/1984 at Chester, MA with a minimum temperature of -40 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1959: Cold night in the Shenandoah Valley as Dale Enterprise had a low temperature of -4 °F and Naked Creek in Rockingham County, Virginia recorded a minimum of -14.5 °F. (Ref. Daily News Record Newspaper - Harrisonburg, Virginia)

1969: The maximum temperature for the date in Washington, DC is 69°F. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)
Heavy rains of tropical origin began on this day and ended on the 28th. As much as 50 inches of rain fell at 7,700 feet. 31 inches of rain fell on the south slopes of Mt. San Gorgonio, 15.5 inches at San Jacinto Peak, around 10 inches at Banning, less than one inch from Indio southeast. 87 people were reported dead from flooding and mudslides all over California. Scores died in traffic accidents. Hundreds of homes and buildings were destroyed in slides, including 14 destroyed and 11 damaged homes in Mt. Baldy Village. 50 homes near Forest Home (Forest Falls) were damaged by flooding. Highways and railroads washed out. Power outages occurred. Cucamonga Creek itself caused $10 million in damage. The Mojave River took out numerous bridges and flooded farmlands in the upper desert. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1971: A remarkable record at Los Angeles California. Today's high of 95°F set the city's all time record January high shattering the old record by 5°. This is only 3° less than the United States January record high of 98°F set in Fort McIntosh, Texas on January 18, 1914 and Laredo Texas on January 17, 1936. (Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2007 Accord Publishing, USA)

 

1971: A warm Santa Ana condition brought a 95 degree reading to Los Angeles, the highest January temperature on record. It was 95 degrees in Palm Springs, the highest temperature on record for January as well.

1973 - A baby was carried 300 to 400 yards by the strong winds of a tornado at Corey LA, yet received only minor injuries. (The Weather Channel)

 

1978: In Connecticut, the Hartford Arena collapsed after experiencing the largest snowstorm of its 5-year life. Multiple issues caused the collapse.

1982: Extreme cold in the Northeast: Princeton, NJ recorded -9F and Bridgehampton, NY, on Long Island, dropped to -10F. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)
 

1987 - A storm in the south central U.S. blanketed Oklahoma City with eight inches of snow, their highest total since 1948. Snowfall totals in Oklahoma ranged up to 13 inches at Gage, with drifts five feet high. Roof collapses across the state resulted in seven million dollars damage. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A storm in the southwestern U.S. produced a 15 to 20 foot surf along the southern coast of California resulting in more than fifty million dollars damage. A small tornado in Orange County CA lifted a baseball dugout fifteen feet into the air and deposited it in the street, 150 yards away. The same storm also produced 26 inches of snow at Duck Creek UT. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - While fair and mild weather prevailed across the forty-eight states, bitter cold gripped Alaska. The high temperature for the day at Fairbanks was 30 degrees below zero. Thunderstorms along the western Gulf coast drenched parts of southwest Houston with more than four inches of rain. (National Weather Summary)

1990 - A winter storm produced heavy snow and high winds across the southwestern U.S. Snowfall totals ranged up to 18 inches at Lake Arrowhead CA and Ashford AZ. High winds in New Mexico gusted to 100 mph east of Albuquerque. Unseasonably warm weather continued from Texas to the Atlantic coast. Twenty cities reported record high temperatures for the date including Roanoke VA with a reading of 71 degrees. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)


1992: Up to seven inches of snow fell across North Alabama in an unusual snowstorm. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1993: A cold blast of air over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley: Chicago's high temperature only reached -11F degrees, tying the record for the coldest high temperature that the Windy City has ever recorded. Tower, MN fell to -44F. Thirty-six inches of snow fell in just nine hours at Adams, NY. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)
Salt Lake City broke its seasonal snowfall when the total reached severity-six inches.(Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1994: Great Arctic outbreak of 1994 begins on 17th and 18th. The massive overrunning snowstorm that had buried the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys the day before moved northeastward and clobbered interior sections of New England and the Mid Atlantic. The Washington, DC area received up to 2 inches of ice. 10 to 20 inches of snow fell from West Virginia to parts of New England. Two day snowfall totals included 24 inches at Grafton, NH, 23 inches at Long Pond, PA, 22 inches at Patten, ME & Hanover, NH, 20 inches at Eustis, ME, and 19 inches at Caribou, ME. 20 inches of new snow at Jay Peak, VT raised their snow cover to 91 inches. Wilkes-Barre Scranton, PA checked in with 16.6 inches, which brought their monthly snowfall to 36.9 inches, their snowiest January on record. Chicago 21°F below zero was near the all time record low which is -27 °F set on January 20, 1985 and Tower, MN dropped to -44 °F. (Ref. Wx.Doctor)
Behind the storm, the next blast of arctic air spread over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Chicago, IL’s high temperature only reached -11°, tying the record for the coldest high temperature that the Windy City has ever recorded (12/24/1983).(Ref. Wiki.Answers.Com)
Governor Arne Carlson ordered all Minnesota public schools closed due to the extreme cold and severe winter weather. Morning readings were in the 30-below-zero range. The biggest problem was from high winds that came with the cold and very low windchills. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1995: An area of low pressure developed over eastern Texas and intensified as it moved northeast to southern Illinois. This storm produced a band of heavy snow from portions of northeast Oklahoma to northwest Illinois bringing transportation to a halt for two days. Columbia, MO reported their greatest 24-hour snowfall on record with 19.7 inches. At Springfield, MO 14.4 inches fell through the next day, making it the heaviest 24 hour snowfall since 1980. Total damage was estimated at $2.5 million dollars. What made this storm unusual was the occurrence of thundersnow in many locations across southwest Missouri at height of the storm (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1996: Heavy rain and snowmelt from deep snow packs over New England resulted in massive flooding and caused the evacuation of 125,000 people. 80 people died and damage totaled $1 billion dollars. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1999: A microburst in a thunderstorm gave winds to 86 mph that imploded a greenhouse in Bridgehampton New York. Fortunately there were no injuries. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2012 Accord Pub. 2011, USA)

[SACRUS]

Just now, SACRUS said:

Records:

Highs:


1994: Great Arctic outbreak of 1994 begins on 17th and 18th. The massive overrunning snowstorm that had buried the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys the day before moved northeastward and clobbered interior sections of New England and the Mid Atlantic. The Washington, DC area received up to 2 inches of ice. 10 to 20 inches of snow fell from West Virginia to parts of New England. Two day snowfall totals included 24 inches at Grafton, NH, 23 inches at Long Pond, PA, 22 inches at Patten, ME & Hanover, NH, 20 inches at Eustis, ME, and 19 inches at Caribou, ME. 20 inches of new snow at Jay Peak, VT raised their snow cover to 91 inches. Wilkes-Barre Scranton, PA checked in with 16.6 inches, which brought their monthly snowfall to 36.9 inches, their snowiest January on record. Chicago 21°F below zero was near the all time record low which is -27 °F set on January 20, 1985 and Tower, MN dropped to -44 °F. (Ref. Wx.Doctor)
Behind the storm, the next blast of arctic air spread over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Chicago, IL’s high temperature only reached -11°, tying the record for the coldest high temperature that the Windy City has ever recorded (12/24/1983).(Ref. Wiki.Answers.Com)
Governor Arne Carlson ordered all Minnesota public schools closed due to the extreme cold and severe winter weather. Morning readings were in the 30-below-zero range. The biggest problem was from high winds that came with the cold and very low windchills. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

)

 

Could be some interesting parallels to 1994 ahead this and next (1/25) week.