January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Way better

big hit!

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

big hit!

Yep

[WeatherGeek2025]

craWling

[MJO812]

Blizzard

[Stormlover74]

So basically its rain to light snow to an all out blizzard over 24 hours

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said:

NYC average is near 30” of snow. It would take several moderate snow events to make it to that level. We have not seen many moderate events in one season since 2015. 2013, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2021 made it above average with storms that had a double digit snowstorm. 2014 and 2015 made it above average with several moderate events (and some bigger ones too, but those were well above average seasons.) would take several moderate events to give NYC another 22” in order to reach average. So unless we buck the trend and get back to having several moderate events like in the great winters of 2014 and 2015, we will need a KU to reach average 

Prior to 2000 NYC's average snowfall was approx. 27.5 inches. Reason I am stating this is to show that it constantly fluctuates and we are in a low snowfall period. Again, 5 above average snowfall winter 1970 to 1999. We are on the same pace 2018 till now. None of what's happening should be a shock.

[WeatherGeek2025]

this is a long lasting 36 hour blizzard we all wanted is this possible?

[Krs4Lfe]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

this is a long lasting 36 hour blizzard we all wanted is this possible?

Very delicate situation because GFS is amped but relying on a CCB to bring down the cold air. Otherwise, there would be some temperature issues like the Euro shows. Good to see it not backing down, but we need support from the other models as well. 

[Krs4Lfe]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Prior to 2000 NYC's average snowfall was approx. 27.5 inches. Reason I am stating this is to show that it constantly fluctuates and we are in a low snowfall period. Again, 5 above average snowfall winter 1970 to 1999. We are on the same pace 2018 till now. None of what's happening should be a shock.

Yes but some of those years were just a product of it being too dry, as opposed to the warm boundary layer that we constantly deal with this decade. Also, three ratters in a row shows that the 2020s is more of a feast/famine sort of thing. 70s through 90s were overall below average but were consistently in the 15" range. Past 3 years in NYC are historically unsnowy, and back to back as well. I understand what you're saying, but it feels like there is something bigger at play here

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Yes but some of those years were just a product of it being too dry, as opposed to the warm boundary layer that we constantly deal with this decade. Also, three ratters in a row shows that the 2020s is more of a feast/famine sort of thing. 70s through 90s were overall below average but were consistently in the 15" range. Past 3 years in NYC are historically unsnowy, and back to back as well. I understand what you're saying, but it feels like there is something bigger at play here

There were plenty of extremely warm winters and below 10 inch seasons. I literally lived them. I am seeing the exact same thing but a couple degrees warmer.

[SI Mailman]

Very delicate situation because GFS is amped but relying on a CCB to bring down the cold air. Otherwise, there would be some temperature issues like the Euro shows. Good to see it not backing down, but we need support from the other models as well. 

Agreed, GFS consistently had me getting 6 to 8 inches of snow a few weeks ago. I ended up getting 2 inches of sleet

[BoulderWX]

Just another solution. This obviously represents the best possible outcome and I’m sure we’ll have many models showing nothing.  That’s our envelope right now and will continue to narrow over the next couple of days.

[EastonSN+]

Was hoping the CMC would follow. However it may show a better 2nd wave.

[NEG NAO]

all I can say is that the GFS keeps returning to the major snowstorm solution and its doing it at around day 5 -6 so it has to be considered but only taken seriously if any other models start leaning that way - Canadian is not at 12Z - Icon looks like it is considering it Also the GFS totals are way overdone IMO

[David-LI]

12z GFS

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Was hoping the CMC would follow. However it may show a better 2nd wave.

It fizzles

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It fizzles

Moisture starved.

[EastonSN+]

Close to a moderate event. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

21 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

There were plenty of extremely warm winters and below 10 inch seasons. I literally lived them. I am seeing the exact same thing but a couple degrees warmer.

Until the last five years single digit snowfall totals even in NYC were very rare. I don't have the stats in front of me but I'm pretty certain through 2018 it was less than 8 in 150 years. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

does anybody know the verifications for these models? Is euro still in first place?

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

I think the models have mostly been showing a sharp cutoff north of 80. 

Over the last 2-3 days yes.  But 5-7 days ago I was in 1-1.5” from most guidance and WPC.  

[MJO812]

Gefs is way better

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs is way better

Dude GfS clobbers the area again next weekend with a 5-8 inches area wide

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Dude GfS clobbers the area again next weekend with a 5-8 inches area wide

Snowy run

[brooklynwx99]

I would have to think that the GFS is cracked out, but it was able to actually revert back to a 00z-like solution. combine that with the trends on the AIFS and the GEFS becoming way more amped and I'm a bit intrigued. I would like to see any other guidance entertain it... AIFS/ICON are close and UKMET made a big amped move. certainly possible, but temper enthusiasm for now

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I would have to think that the GFS is cracked out, but it was able to actually revert back to a 00z-like solution. combine that with the trends on the AIFS and the GEFS becoming way more amped and I'm a bit intrigued. I would like to see any other guidance entertain it... AIFS/ICON are close and UKMET made a big amped move. certainly possible, but temper enthusiasm for now

Having the big ridge out west definetly helps.

[WeatherGeek2025]

Can I make a thread @BxEngine?

[Stormlover74]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Can I make a thread @BxEngine?

Please no

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Can I make a thread @BxEngine?

No

[WeatherGeek2025]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Please no

 

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

No

ok