January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The last time we were able to pull off that feat was back in 2009.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jan Lowest Maximum Temperature
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1875	37	0
-	1857	37	1
2	1867	39	0
3	1881	40	0
-	1856	40	0
4	1873	42	0
5	1884	43	0
-	1877	43	0
-	1868	43	0
-	1861	43	0
6	1948	44	0
-	1865	44	1
7	1977	45	0
-	1883	45	0
-	1866	45	0
8	1971	46	0
9	1956	47	0
-	1896	47	0
-	1879	47	0
10	2009	48	0
-	1970	48	0
-	1969	48	0
-	1941	48	0
-	1882	48	0
-	1878	48	0
-	1872	48	0
11	1922	49	1
-	1871	49	0

Any data for that criteria, no days 50+ in January, in Orange County airport in Montgomery NY?

[sussexcountyobs]

Currently partly cloudy. Windy . 17.6F

Snow wise, not a bad start so far. 18.5"

But, I am absolutely done with the winds this year. Enough is enough. 

 

[RU848789]

7 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Main story by me is that everything - the street, sidewalks, etc - are a slick sheet of ice.  It's a crusty 1/4-1/2" of frozen combo.

I was woken up by some gusts of wind while it was still dark out but fell back asleep.  Now I know what it was.

Caps off a start to meteorological winter that I would have gladly signed up for if you asked me in October.

Happy New Year!  All the best for a happy and a healthy 2026.

Ice?  Was able to broom this light powdery snow off very easily.  

[WestBabylonWeather]

Here in west babylon we got slightly more than a coating with the squalls but it disappeared within a couple of hours 

[sussexcountyobs]

My son just used the leaf blower to clear driveway,  steps, and walk at my parents down in Hackensack. 

[donsutherland1]

A snow squall associated with an Arctic cold front brought Central Park its first measurable New Year's Day snowfall since 1987. In the wake of the frontal passage, a series of cold days lies ahead.

The first week of January could have a mean temperature below 30° in New York City. If that happends, it would be the coldest opening week of January since 2018. The only years since 2000 with a sub-30° mean temperature for the opening week of January were 2001, 2010, 2014 and 2018.

Milder weather could develop on or around January 7th. The milder period appears likely to last for about a week, but there is some uncertainty about its duration. Afterward, conditions could become more favorable for both cold and snowfall, especially if the PNA goes positive.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around December 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +2.39 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.973 today. 

 

[donsutherland1]

Final Snowfall Totals from the Snow Squall:

Bridgeport: Trace
Islip: 0.4"
New York City-Central Park: 0.5"
New York City-JFK Airport: 0.4"
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: Trace
Newark: 0.7"

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Final Snowfall Totals from the Snow Squall:

Bridgeport: Trace
Islip: 0.4"
New York City-Central Park: 0.5"
New York City-JFK Airport: 0.4"
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: Trace
Newark: 0.7"

LGA is usually pretty reliable with measurements. They must not have bothered to measure. It seems unlikely they didn't get something measurable. 

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

LGA is usually pretty reliable with measurements. They must not have bothered to measure. It seems unlikely they didn't get something measurable. 

I was surprised, too. We’ll see whether anything measurable is added in the climate entry.

[sussexcountyobs]

Clear. Windy. 15.9F

[Krs4Lfe]

The latest temperature anomaly map from the CPC is not looking good. Has us at above average temperatures up until January 14 or so. And it doesn’t look like there will be much precipitation either. Seems like warmer and dry, but if we can get some storms reversing across the US then maybe we can sneak something our way despite the overall above average temperatures. It’s usually somewhat workable when you have an active southern jet and some storms even when the temperatures are a bit above average, especially in January when we are in Peak Climo. But it looks like most of the US will be shut out of any winter weather and cold through the mid month aside from some parts of the Rockies.

[Prue11]

44 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

The latest temperature anomaly map from the CPC is not looking good. Has us at above average temperatures up until January 14 or so. And it doesn’t look like there will be much precipitation either. Seems like warmer and dry, but if we can get some storms reversing across the US then maybe we can sneak something our way despite the overall above average temperatures. It’s usually somewhat workable when you have an active southern jet and some storms even when the temperatures are a bit above average, especially in January when we are in Peak Climo. But it looks like most of the US will be shut out of any winter weather and cold through the mid month aside from some parts of the Rockies.

If this is true I’d gladly take the warmer and dry versus the colder and dry like we had last winter. We’ll have our opportunities in January 

[sussexcountyobs]

Down to 14.0F already. Forecast low is 13. Still breezy. If wind dies with full snow cover and clear skies, it's gunna get colder than 13.

[donsutherland1]

For reference, here's how New York City fared in terms of mean temperatures following the warmest January 7-15 periods (1980-2025):

Both the 1/1/2026 12z EPS and GEFS are quite a bit cooler than the lowest value on the above table. Below is a scatter diagram showing all cases, including the shaded region for the current EPS and GEFS forecasts.

In short, even if the January 7-15 period winds up warmer than normal, as is now the consensus on the guidance, its warmth does not provide basis to write off all of January, even as a colder January 7-15 period has typically preceded snowier than normal second halves of January. Now, if the warmth reaches a magnitude much higher than the present guidance e.g., above 40.0°, then snowfall prospects for the second half of January would become markedly lower.

[psv88]

3 hours ago, Dark Star said:

Sounds like you are ready to retire to Florida?

Never. I got sick because I partied a lot the last 2 weeks. I absolutely hate Florida and could never live there 

[donsutherland1]

5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Never. I got sick because I partied a lot the last 2 weeks. I absolutely hate Florida and could never live there 

I hope you feel better.

[psv88]

16 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I hope you feel better.

Thanks Don. Appreciate it. Getting sick is the price we pay for socializing during the holidays. It’s close to inevitable 

[sussexcountyobs]

Wind finally dying down. Currently 12.0F

[MANDA]

9 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Wind finally dying down. Currently 12.0F

Currently 10.7 here.

[IrishRob17]

46 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Down to 14.0F already. Forecast low is 13. Still breezy. If wind dies with full snow cover and clear skies, it's gunna get colder than 13.

Forecasted low is 16 here and I'm at 10 and continue dropping. 

[Stormlover74]

The thaw next week will feel nice. 

[sussexcountyobs]

Down to 11.5 and dropping. 

[IrishRob17]

6 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Forecasted low is 16 here and I'm at 10 and continue dropping. 

9

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

The thaw next week will feel nice. 

Meh

[Stormlover74]

23 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Meh

If its not going to snow no sense in freezing. I'll gladly take upper 40s. My pseg bill was over $500 this month

[psv88]

9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

If its not going to snow no sense in freezing. I'll gladly take upper 40s. My pseg bill was over $500 this month

I’ll even take upper 30s with no wind. The wind is what makes this month terrible 

[wthrmn654]

7 hours ago, psv88 said:

Miserable day. I came down with that cold that’s going around to start the year off the right way. 
 

A thaw would be nice. A few days near 55 with no wind please 

I just getting over one of the colds, I don't think I had the super flu but it's gnarly on the lungs. 

[wthrmn654]

4 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

family dealing with both covid and flu, and daughter getting over unidentified throat infection she had on and off for a month; it took 3 rounds of antibiotics and steroids; she lost her voice too. yet the throat scope with a camera showed hardly anything; all tests were negative and they went after them all, viruses, strep, you name it. i won't mind a few days of warmer conditions so my hands will stop bleeding and i can sleep at night without itching all over from dryness.....then i'll be ready for some more snow, and i don't care what the teleconnections say, so far this winter has snowy written all over it. we'll see.

Did she have a lot of sticky gunk coughing up? 

[WestBabylonWeather]

A little January thaw never hurt anyone