January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[fountainguy97]

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Maybe we better start looking at the QPF trends?  I have to think a 1040+ hp sitting to the north of this is a big problem, especially since it is well west of the Apps into the Midwest or plains.  

Well I am changing my tune now. The HP isn't much different access models. But the main thing is how much Baja energy is injected. UK and CMC fully pull it east into the system. While the ICON and GFS don't. That amps the up the storm more than anything 

[fountainguy97]

1 minute ago, fountainguy97 said:

Well I am changing my tune now. The HP isn't much different access models. But the main thing is how much Baja energy is injected. UK and CMC fully pull it east into the system. While the ICON and GFS don't. That amps the up the storm more than anything 

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

Looks like Nashville is in the basement playing ping pong.  

"Nothing to see here...move right along."

[Carvers Gap]

3 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Well I am changing my tune now. The HP isn't much different access models. But the main thing is how much Baja energy is injected. UK and CMC fully pull it east into the system. While the ICON and GFS don't. That amps the up the storm more than anything 

What are you changing your tune to?  

[*Flash*]

5 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

Looks like Nashville is in the basement playing ping pong.  

They have a long history of being gun-shy for whatever reason. 

[Weatheriscool]

11 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

"Nothing to see here...move right along."

Appears that way on the GFS

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, Weatheriscool said:

Appears that way on the GFS

I hope they aren't riding w/ the lowest verification score, right?  I think the GFS is about to be badly wrong.

[Carvers Gap]

AIFS late?

[Weatheriscool]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

I hope they aren't riding w/ the lowest verification score, right?  I think the GFS is about to be badly wrong.

I think it's going to do something that is about as specific as you can get but yeah some people are gonna be surprised.

[Nash_LSU]

19 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

Looks like Nashville is in the basement playing ping pong.  

OHX is too busy trying to come up with some silly word-play social media post. 

[John1122]

That Canadian run was a super charged version of Jan 29th/30th, I believe 2010. 

[Weatheriscool]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

That Canadian run was a super charged version of Jan 29th/30th, I believe 2010. 

Lot of ice for East TN 

[1234snow]

Not to get lost in the sauce but the 12z CMC has another SE winter storm at hour 240.

[Weatheriscool]

Anxious to see what Eurpean spits out

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, 1234snow said:

Not to get lost in the sauce but the 12z CMC has another SE winter storm at hour 240.

Indeed.  The GFS and 6z AIFS have the same deal.  And very, very cold temps w/ that second one.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I guess the AIFS doesn't always start at 15 minutes after the hours 6 and 12. 

[WishingForWarmWeather]

6 hours ago, *Flash* said:

What the!?!

Where is this from bc you are near me and this is terrifying lmao

[Wurbus]

Has the Euro even started? Can't find it either.

[John1122]

2 minutes ago, Weatheriscool said:

Lot of ice for East TN 

It was a ton of ice along the 40 corridor, I remember Crossville was devastated. I got several inches of sleet and snow. (It may have been a different year but I think it was 2010)

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Neither one have started yet on pivotal:

 

 

[jaxjagman]

Guess Morristown is all in now like MEM

[Carvers Gap]

I feel like the shields are about to go up in KPT, @Holston_River_Rambler.

[Scottie16]

The lighter ICON is worse to me..lighter precipitation plus colder surface...easier for to accumulate on powerlines.

I already called the city over the three power poles in my subdivision that have been leaning since the last snow storm.


.

[John1122]

The Canadian had 6 inches of sleet from the Plateau to Memphis.

[Reb]

3 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Guess Morristown is all in now like MEM

No ice risk? Odd, they must think the Baja low hangs back a bit 

[Carvers Gap]

4 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Guess Morristown is all in now like MEM

Where did you find that?

[nrgjeff]

Yeah I don't see it on NWS Chat or by Email. Are they even public? If they are for EMs they must have a new VIP list that doesn't include me, ha!

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

Where did you find that?

In other news, end of the Canadian is a full latitude double/triple phase classic Miller A bomb!

[*Flash*]

8 minutes ago, WishingForWarmWeather said:

Where is this from bc you are near me and this is terrifying lmao

Just my first weather app glance of the today on my iPhone. Bad data ingestion, no doubt. 

[Carvers Gap]

Then AIFS might be just a bit different.....

[jaxjagman]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Where did you find that?

https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=mrx