January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[beavis1729]

30 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

It’s going to suck with those temps & nothing to show for them if it happens.  Dry & extreme cold, hard pass. I like cold but not brutally cold wo snow on the ground. 

I agree...but if it's any consolation, there's currently no snow cover at all in the Midwest south of 44.5N. I was just up in northern WI for my nephew's hockey tournament, and the snow cover wasn't really consistent until you hit Wausau (which is approx. 45N). And it's even worse further west in the Plains...I believe there's bare ground in most of ND, SD, and MT. Grand Forks ND typically has deep snow cover this time of year, but they only have 5" on the ground. Their max depth all season has only been 6".

Very hard to believe for mid-January.

Hopefully things change soon, even as I prefer that wintry weather occur at the beginning of the season due to the holidays and shorter day length. 

[Bigbald]

Pretty good consensus sunday-monday out of the 0z CMC-GFS-icon.  Wide spread 2-4  inch (higher mountains) cold high ratio stuff.

[John1122]

Of course the Euro has another near gulf coast snow event. 

[Coach B]

3 hours ago, John1122 said:

Of course the Euro has another near gulf coast snow event. 

Outside of the mountains this would be a painful look for our cold snap if it verifies:

[fountainguy97]

I'm not going to lie. This winter has been so frustrating and continues to be. We can't seem to manage a single decent synoptic driven snow.
 

I've been checked out since the little event the first week of November and that hasn't changed and doesn't look to. I guess the plus side is I've had more sleep over the winter than ever before.  Just incredible how bad the short term trends have been for this mid-week event. Yet another token NW event on deck. 

[Carvers Gap]

The 6z Euro has removed the 0z run Gulf event - weird run...plausible, but out of nowhere it came and back to nowhere it went..  It probably serves as a reminder that large scale, last minute changes are still possible as we get better NA data of those vortices(when they approach and make NA landfall).  

Looks like two minor events this week w/ "potentially" the coldest air of the season arriving the 19th-20th.  Then we (maybe?) roll a ridge through, and the potential is there for another deepening of the eastern trough beginning sometime around or shortly after the 25th.  I think we see a big dog before this winter is over....provided the cold air incursions continue.  The tough thing w/ an EPO ridge patterns is that sometimes the ridge gets too tall like it did in 17-18(think that is the right year), gets very cold, but precip has trouble getting into the pattern.

Ultimately, I think the main snow culprit is ongoing drought which is a thorn with La Nina patterns at times - and this is currently  a textbook, QBO La Nina pattern.  However, I think this winter is far from over at this point.  The EPO ridge looks like it may well have some staying power.  As we hit February, shortening wavelengths and a weakening La Nina should break the drought.  Of note, Cosgrove notes the La Nina is moderate...and that is no bueno for eastern winters.  SST anomalies depict La Nina for sure.  The positive is that the Nina should rapidly weaken according to him and Webber.

Good and bad -> One thing to watch w/ clippers and cold fronts.  They can often strengthen a bit on modeling as we approach the event, and they will often lift north at the last second - buyer beware.  

 

[Carvers Gap]

I would suspect the event for the 17th-18th may well have some high ratios as BigBald noted.  I actually like the 0z GEM-para look for that event IF that cold air is legit.

[Carvers Gap]

7 hours ago, Bigbald said:

Pretty good consensus sunday-monday out of the 0z CMC-GFS-icon.  Wide spread 2-4  inch (higher mountains) cold high ratio stuff.

That makes a lot of sense.  I would suspect we may not know how strong that is until maybe even "go time."  Tricky forecast w/ some upside as you note.  We just don't want that to jog north at the last minute.  Otherwise, that looks spot on.

[GBOVolz]

This forum area has always had wild weather swings.   The blizzard of 93 was preceded by one of the worst severe weather events of my lifetime.  The 85 cold outbreak was preceded by strong December warmth…dig back through for the analog I posted a while back for that.  
Why the extremes?  Our weather is influenced by five bodies of water…Pacific, Atlantic, Gulf, Arctic, and the the GLs.  I mean really the IO does as well so make it six bodies of water.  
But our proximity to the Gulf allows wild swings between continental derived cold and warmth from a large, shallow body of ocean water.  It is why severe weather here is some of the worst on the planet in regards to tornadoes.  It is why we have TVA to control what used to be catastrophic flooding which was often preceded by drought.  
I think we have a fun second half of winter coming up.  Take what we get and enjoy it. 
 
 

Two weeks before the 93’ blizzard, an F3 tracked through Oak Ridge, Powell, to Halls. Strongest tornado on record for Knox Co.


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[bearman]

3 hours ago, fountainguy97 said:

I'm not going to lie. This winter has been so frustrating and continues to be. We can't seem to manage a single decent synoptic driven snow.
 

I've been checked out since the little event the first week of November and that hasn't changed and doesn't look to. I guess the plus side is I've had more sleep over the winter than ever before.  Just incredible how bad the short term trends have been for this mid-week event. Yet another token NW event on deck. 

What has happened to the weather has been really ironic, since I moved to Knoxville from the Cleveland Area around 2006.  I was very excited because I love snow, so I assumed I would get much more snow than I did when I lived in Cleveland.  That has turned out to be very untrue. Since moving to Knoxville, Cleveland has managed to get about the same amount or even more snowfall, and it just so happens that the area that I moved to in Knoxville never scores any snow from northern terrain generated events.  It has become so frustrating that I have found myself just wanting warm weather so I can get out on the river and fish. For me, this is pretty significant because as a kid a snowfall always seemed like such a magical thing that it carried over into my adulthood. 

[GBOVolz]

And we are staying in Wears Valley this weekend


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[GBOVolz]

What has happened to the weather has been really ironic, since I moved to Knoxville from the Cleveland Area around 2006.  I was very excited because I love snow, so I assumed I would get much more snow than I did when I lived in Cleveland.  That has turned out to be very untrue. Since moving to Knoxville, Cleveland has managed to get about the same amount or even more snowfall, and it just so happens that the area that I moved to in Knoxville never scores any snow from northern terrain generated events.  It has become so frustrating that I have found myself just wanting warm weather so I can get out on the river and fish. For me, this is pretty significant because as a kid a snowfall always seemed like such a magical thing that it carried over into my adulthood. 

In Knox Co… I know this is Captain obvious but it’s a must to live at or north of a line from Powell to Halls to Gibbs to get snow that the majority of Knox Co won’t see. The temp difference between Ft City to Halls is very unique. In a couple of mile span, it is normal for Halls to be 5-8 degrees colder than Ft City. Hard to explain.


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[Wurbus]

I'm not too enthused with the upcoming wave on Wednesday night/Thursday morning for Knox county. We might see some flurries/light snow, but I doubt we will get anything more than a dusting. Hopefully NE TN gets a little more from it. The weekend system could be interesting because of the potential for high ratio snows with how cold the models are showing, but we still have a ways to go for that system.

[Carvers Gap]

16 minutes ago, Wurbus said:

I'm not too enthused with the upcoming wave on Wednesday night/Thursday morning for Knox county. We might see some flurries/light snow, but I doubt we will get anything more than a dusting. Hopefully NE TN gets a little more from it. The weekend system could be interesting because of the potential for high ratio snows with how cold the models are showing, but we still have a ways to go for that system.

That is how I am rolling as well.  Time of day does not help us with the first system.

[tnweathernut]

6 hours ago, fountainguy97 said:

I'm not going to lie. This winter has been so frustrating and continues to be. We can't seem to manage a single decent synoptic driven snow.
 

I've been checked out since the little event the first week of November and that hasn't changed and doesn't look to. I guess the plus side is I've had more sleep over the winter than ever before.  Just incredible how bad the short term trends have been for this mid-week event. Yet another token NW event on deck. 

I feel this also and haven't been invested until a few days ago.  Seems to be like pulling teeth to get anything synoptic anymore and even when we do there's always a downslope concern................but when I remember the Carolina peeps and their struggles, it makes me thankful for what we do get.

[tnweathernut]

Anytime we have cold modeled in our prime part of winter it provides opportunities to look for something.  It's still possible (although admittedly fading) the midweek system could surprise.  Same with the one for the weekend.  If we whiff on both of those, we will just have to see what kind of ridging rolls through and can we find another 1-2 week period in late Jan/early Feb where we start the hunt again?

 

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GEM sure makes the most sense given the cold which is incoming.  Lots of small waves.

[Wurbus]

I know the Canadian typically overdoes the cold, but that is some cold air early next week. Lows close to 0 and feels like in the -10s.....brrr.

[Matthew70]

Very cold & no snow just stinks worse than a skunk. 
 

GaWx gave an update on the possible MJO phase going into February.  Could be phase 1/2/3 which would back the Weeklies warmer February.  Luckily the LR forecasts have been horrible.  Can we go back to 5 day forecasts? Lol. 

[nrgjeff]

Also go back to smooth jazz and rough graphics local on the 8s. Trends today 06/12Z point to mainly Plateau and Mountains Wednesday night. Weekend could feature more flurries are even snow showers Valley floor in Eastern Tennessee. Maybe even the Nashville area?

Clearly the beefy GFS runs a couple days ago caved to the Euro type solutions. Still gives a chance of flurries in the air over the weekend. A good short-wave within cyclonic flow aloft could put down a dusting in the Valley. Otherwise more Plateau and Mountains. Mid-Atlantic and Southern Appalachian ski areas look for another good MLK Weekend.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I prefer 8->1/2/3 for the MJO, but's just me. I think tropical forcing has the best influence when it goes through 8 and makes a full tour through 1/2/3. I don't think we've seen it do that in a looonngg time. 

 

Looks to me like it is about to blow its load in the west Pac and crash again. 

 

[Bigbald]

6 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Very cold & no snow just stinks worse than a skunk. 
 

GaWx gave an update on the possible MJO phase going into February.  Could be phase 1/2/3 which would back the Weeklies warmer February.  Luckily the LR forecasts have been horrible.  Can we go back to 5 day forecasts? Lol. 

I mean Carver just posted the GEM 12z that dumps 5-10 inches of high ratio snow across a big chunk of the area.  We might not get any snow but its depicted on several models within 7 days.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Do we need to issue a road brine watch for the some of our areas? 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Over on southernwx they’re posting the Ukie. It would not be a bad look for the late weekend system  at this range. 

[Save the itchy algae!]

I mean Carver just posted the GEM 12z that dumps 5-10 inches of high ratio snow across a big chunk of the area.  We might not get any snow but its depicted on several models within 7 days.  

Even when the main globals were honking he was still being Debbie downer. That’s just his role here…


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[tnweathernut]

In the mid-south it’s so much easier to say it’s not going to snow or not going to snow as much.  You’d be right 90% of the time.  Most of us in here live for the elusive 10%.

[Matthew70]

35 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Do we need to issue a road brine watch for the some of our areas? 

Gotta use up some of that budget money so they can get more next year. 

[Scottie16]

I wouldn’t completely check out on either wave.


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just a random shower thought: 

 

This whole vort mess that's tangled up and been a pain for models.... is there a road where some of this mess turns into a 50/50 and suppresses a wave past.... let's say 200 hours or so? 

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Matthew70 said:

Very cold & no snow just stinks worse than a skunk. 
 

GaWx gave an update on the possible MJO phase going into February.  Could be phase 1/2/3 which would back the Weeklies warmer February.  Luckily the LR forecasts have been horrible.  Can we go back to 5 day forecasts? Lol. 

MJO phases 1-2-3 centered on JFM are cold.  The Weeklies yesterday were not warm.  I have looked at them, and I looked at them again to be sure.