January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[beavis1729]

30 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

It’s going to suck with those temps & nothing to show for them if it happens.  Dry & extreme cold, hard pass. I like cold but not brutally cold wo snow on the ground. 

I agree...but if it's any consolation, there's currently no snow cover at all in the Midwest south of 44.5N. I was just up in northern WI for my nephew's hockey tournament, and the snow cover wasn't really consistent until you hit Wausau (which is approx. 45N). And it's even worse further west in the Plains...I believe there's bare ground in most of ND, SD, and MT. Grand Forks ND typically has deep snow cover this time of year, but they only have 5" on the ground. Their max depth all season has only been 6".

Very hard to believe for mid-January.

Hopefully things change soon, even as I prefer that wintry weather occur at the beginning of the season due to the holidays and shorter day length. 

[Bigbald]

Pretty good consensus sunday-monday out of the 0z CMC-GFS-icon.  Wide spread 2-4  inch (higher mountains) cold high ratio stuff.

[John1122]

Of course the Euro has another near gulf coast snow event. 

[Coach B]

3 hours ago, John1122 said:

Of course the Euro has another near gulf coast snow event. 

Outside of the mountains this would be a painful look for our cold snap if it verifies:

[fountainguy97]

I'm not going to lie. This winter has been so frustrating and continues to be. We can't seem to manage a single decent synoptic driven snow.
 

I've been checked out since the little event the first week of November and that hasn't changed and doesn't look to. I guess the plus side is I've had more sleep over the winter than ever before.  Just incredible how bad the short term trends have been for this mid-week event. Yet another token NW event on deck. 

[Carvers Gap]

The 6z Euro has removed the 0z run Gulf event - weird run...plausible, but out of nowhere it came and back to nowhere it went..  It probably serves as a reminder that large scale, last minute changes are still possible as we get better NA data of those vortices(when they approach and make NA landfall).  

Looks like two minor events this week w/ "potentially" the coldest air of the season arriving the 19th-20th.  Then we (maybe?) roll a ridge through, and the potential is there for another deepening of the eastern trough beginning sometime around or shortly after the 25th.  I think we see a big dog before this winter is over....provided the cold air incursions continue.  The tough thing w/ an EPO ridge patterns is that sometimes the ridge gets too tall like it did in 17-18(think that is the right year), gets very cold, but precip has trouble getting into the pattern.

Ultimately, I think the main snow culprit is ongoing drought which is a thorn with La Nina patterns at times - and this is currently  a textbook, QBO La Nina pattern.  However, I think this winter is far from over at this point.  The EPO ridge looks like it may well have some staying power.  As we hit February, shortening wavelengths and a weakening La Nina should break the drought.  Of note, Cosgrove notes the La Nina is moderate...and that is no bueno for eastern winters.  SST anomalies depict La Nina for sure.  The positive is that the Nina should rapidly weaken according to him and Webber.

Good and bad -> One thing to watch w/ clippers and cold fronts.  They can often strengthen a bit on modeling as we approach the event, and they will often lift north at the last second - buyer beware.  

 

[Carvers Gap]

I would suspect the event for the 17th-18th may well have some high ratios as BigBald noted.  I actually like the 0z GEM-para look for that event IF that cold air is legit.

[Carvers Gap]

7 hours ago, Bigbald said:

Pretty good consensus sunday-monday out of the 0z CMC-GFS-icon.  Wide spread 2-4  inch (higher mountains) cold high ratio stuff.

That makes a lot of sense.  I would suspect we may not know how strong that is until maybe even "go time."  Tricky forecast w/ some upside as you note.  We just don't want that to jog north at the last minute.  Otherwise, that looks spot on.

[GBOVolz]

This forum area has always had wild weather swings.   The blizzard of 93 was preceded by one of the worst severe weather events of my lifetime.  The 85 cold outbreak was preceded by strong December warmth…dig back through for the analog I posted a while back for that.  
Why the extremes?  Our weather is influenced by five bodies of water…Pacific, Atlantic, Gulf, Arctic, and the the GLs.  I mean really the IO does as well so make it six bodies of water.  
But our proximity to the Gulf allows wild swings between continental derived cold and warmth from a large, shallow body of ocean water.  It is why severe weather here is some of the worst on the planet in regards to tornadoes.  It is why we have TVA to control what used to be catastrophic flooding which was often preceded by drought.  
I think we have a fun second half of winter coming up.  Take what we get and enjoy it. 
 
 

Two weeks before the 93’ blizzard, an F3 tracked through Oak Ridge, Powell, to Halls. Strongest tornado on record for Knox Co.


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