26th-27th event, coming at us like a wounded duck.

[40/70 Benchmark]

50 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Wondering if we can really rip on an ORH-PVD line now fora couple hours. That ML fronto has been holding together stronger on each run. 

Folks laughed at my map, but let's see how this play out. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Hopefully just 5.4”

Let’s get a bitter cold shot for the chickens.

[CoastalWx]

Nasty dryslot into BGM

[dendrite]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Let’s get a bitter cold shot for the chickens.

14/1 today and they were not happy.

[40/70 Benchmark]

37 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Some other thoughts on this event.

It's not a typical clipper as it moves SE the entire time. It also can't rapidly develop offshore, at least initially b/c it is too "crowded." The strong cold front and disturbance aloft the gave the SN to northern New England yesterday? That system rapidly developed last night S of Nova Scotia and is now intense (see 12z sfc map attached). So when it is crowded like this, another trough/disturbance so close behind it often has no "room" to develop much, and will get forced more SE rather than E.

As I mentioned yesterday, this is a *darn* good snowfall for such a weak low pressure. The sfc low does not get below 1006 mb as it passes. Usually, a snowfall of this magnitude has low pressure below 1000 and more often closer to 990.  And aloft at 500, it is nothing special either. Just a little "dent" in strong WNW flow. The strong Arctic high pressure to our NE supplying a wedge of low-level cold air damning to the SW over the region makes all the difference here.

Who would have thought having the mean trough position too far *east* for an East Coast weenie blockbuster could do this?  CoastalWx recently told me, "this pattern BLOWS!"  Ok, does it now? 

And it is not a case of the ambient pressure field in place prior keeping the low from not getting that "deep."  The sfc high to the NE is "only" 1033 mb and center well NE near Labrador, and, as I said above, nothing much at all at 500, and even at 850, it barely cuts off one contour, so not a low-least beast like a Gulf wave often is.

The 18z HRRR is forecasting up to 18" in central NY (Cooperstown area). There is no lake effect snow involved here and elevation in that area is not a factor (no little bulls-eyes on the higher areas, it's a broad 12-18" area), so 12-18" is a lot for such a weak storm like this.  That much synoptic snow from a clipper?

And another factor I think? It's been very mild W of New England across a large part of the country, and very wet storms have been impacting the West, so more moisture in the mean is available overall and associated w/ the clipper. So you can "blame" the more snow here from mild winter temps partially! Imagine that.

Oh haha you are Boris from weather enthusiasts on Facebook lol

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Oh haha you are Boris from weather enthusiasts on Facebook lol

Becker?

[vortex95]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nasty dryslot into BGM

Worried about a dry slot when the sfc low passes more than 300 mi S of you?

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Becker?

Lol Konin

[dendrite]

Max DGZ was up around H5-6. Euro had that punching through toward 00z. But I don’t think BGM was expecting much after 00z anyway?

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Worried about a dry slot when the sfc low passes more than 300 mi S of you?

No lol. I want BGm to slot and pinch that lift NE

[DavisStraight]

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

14/1 today and they were not happy.

No eggs for you.

[dendrite]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Becker?

He developed the GRAF.

[vortex95]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Lol Konin

"The Spider"

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, DavisStraight said:

No eggs for you.

1 today!

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

He developed the GRAF.

Russian?

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Russian?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Euro?

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Euro?

Bump NE

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

"The Spider"

Great stuff...appreciate your posts...just made the connection lol. I'm Ray from that group.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Great stuff...appreciate your posts...just made the connection lol. I'm Ray from that group.

I taught him a lot 

[CoastalWx]

We euro.

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Great stuff...appreciate your posts...just made the connection lol. I'm Ray from that group.

And Ray, I didn’t laugh at your post.  I just didn’t see the ingredients coming together like that.   You know more than me and I will tip my cap if I get 6”

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Bump NE

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Bump NE

Nice, let’s score 4-5”

[weatherwiz]

There are some signals another max (albeit probably weaker than the main one) developing here...exactly what Ray was indicating

[bristolri_wx]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I love you 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I taught him a lot 

Something tells me it's vice versa

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

And Ray, I didn’t laugh at your post.  I just didn’t see the ingredients coming together like that.   You know more than me and I will tip my cap if I get 6”

No, not you...some of the emojis.....

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Something tells me it's vice versa

 he’s a good met. He realized he had his hands full when I came aboard. 

[CoastalWx]

Hrrr still makes me nervous