26th-27th event, coming at us like a wounded duck.

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Tick tick tick.  

Rain rinse repeat

[UnitedWx]

10 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Definitely an improvement from yesterday, but I have to have pause. Modeling can’t get a grip on the blocking so buyer beware 

Exactly, and is getting multiplied for every day in the future. Those that live and die by the OP runs past a day or two are just going to drive themselves insane with this pattern

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Exactly, and is getting multiplied for every day in the future. Those that live and die by the OP runs past a day or two are just going to drive themselves insane with this pattern

Yes, for sure.  But This is close enough in now…being two days away or so. 

[CoastalWx]

We need big moves here which will not happen. WoR does not. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

We need big moves here which will not happen. WoR does not. 

You’re probably correct, however if moves are steady over the next couple days, that too would work. It’s certainly not even remotely impossible.  Modeling blows…this could easily come back into play for the region. You’ll be watching/we’ll be watching. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

You’re probably correct, however if moves are steady over the next couple days, that too would work. It’s certainly not even remotely impossible.  Modeling blows…this could easily come back into play for the region. You’ll be watching/we’ll be watching. 

That confidence isn’t budging much. This is different when models tick north because there is nothing really to stop it. Of course it moves out for the next Rainer.

[Baroclinic Zone]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That confidence isn’t budging much. This is different when models tick north because there is nothing really to stop it. Of course it moves out for the next Rainer.

We know your confidence ain’t budging much and neither is the confluence(scooter shit streak)

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That confidence isn’t budging much. This is different when models tick north because there is nothing really to stop it. Of course it moves out for the next Rainer.

Yeah, I mentioned yesterday. This will ruin this event, but the confluence will retreat at lightning speed for our next Rainer, which is exactly how it’s going to play out 

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That confidence isn’t budging much. This is different when models tick north because there is nothing really to stop it. Of course it moves out for the next Rainer.

I Understand.  But here’s my take…modeling has been abysmal, so it bears watching.

And to follow up Bobs shit streak post…that’s more like a shit dam up there. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah, I mentioned yesterday. This will ruin this event, but the confluence will retreat at lightning speed for our next Rainer, which is exactly how it’s going to play out 

Welcome to my teenage years…they’re back. This happened constantly back then. It Sucked. 

[weatherwiz]

I thought maybe it was a cod thing and still some errors with sounding generation but even down into NJ/E PA...those soundings are horrific looking. Thats some serious dry air punching in aloft. I was really shocked seeing the DGZ so high too but makes since because there is a deep warming layer from 850-750. But looking deeper I see why the Winter Storm Watches are where they are. The swath of heaviest snow is going to be tied right into the axis of strongest WAA which is going to be quite a bit away to our southwest. We still should get some light snow into SW CT I think...I was thinking there could be potential for several inches of snow there but may have to rethink to maybe only a couple inches possible. 

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I Understand.  But here’s my take…modeling has been abysmal, so it bears watching.

And to follow up Bobs shit streak post…that’s more like a shit dam up there. 

He's in a far worse spot than CT is, even though he's not that far away in the whole scheme of things. Small changes can work for CT. They need something bigger. And the trends aren't linear as you know. We can trend wonderfully today and lose all the gains tomorrow. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I thought maybe it was a cod thing and still some errors with sounding generation but even down into NJ/E PA...those soundings are horrific looking. Thats some serious dry air punching in aloft. I was really shocked seeing the DGZ so high too but makes since because there is a deep warming layer from 850-750. But looking deeper I see why the Winter Storm Watches are where they are. The swath of heaviest snow is going to be tied right into the axis of strongest WAA which is going to be quite a bit away to our southwest. We still should get some light snow into SW CT I think...I was thinking there could be potential for several inches of snow there but may have to rethink to maybe only a couple inches possible. 

Did you get to look at Euro soundings, I wont be able to get on my PC til later 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Did you get to look at Euro soundings, I wont be able to get on my PC til later 

I wanted too but I guess they're only available on pivotal-plus now and I don't know where else they are available but I would really be curious to see what they look like. 

When I started looking at soundings I had to double check the time stamps were correct and whether maybe they loaded in error...that's how bad they look lol

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Did you get to look at Euro soundings, I wont be able to get on my PC til later 

He might be overthinking this too lol..kind of like what happened last week.  

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Confluence a bit weaker this run on the NAM. Probably going to bump north a bit, but again, really small changes

[Sey-Mour Snow]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I wanted too but I guess they're only available on pivotal-plus now and I don't know where else they are available but I would really be curious to see what they look like. 

When I started looking at soundings I had to double check the time stamps were correct and whether maybe they loaded in error...that's how bad they look lol

I just checked on WB for EURO , looks fine for SWCT, we'd pound , NE of here obviously much drier on euro,  gfs def much drier here at onset in mid levels.. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I just checked on WB for EURO , looks fine for SWCT, we'd pound , gfs def much drier at onset in mid levels.. 

That's good. 

I'm not sure what to think of that...I am thinking that the dry air would probably be on the backside of the precip which could could help with some heavier rates. Would see a scenario of where it rips like 1-2" for a few hours then shuts off. Lots of details to iron out today 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That's good. 

I'm not sure what to think of that...I am thinking that the dry air would probably be on the backside of the precip which could could help with some heavier rates. Would see a scenario of where it rips like 1-2" for a few hours then shuts off. Lots of details to iron out today 

No doubt, definitely losing forcing as it approaches, euro pukes 1-2" rates for a few hours then just light snow after.. 

[Spanks45]

26 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Welcome to my teenage years…they’re back. This happened constantly back then. It Sucked. 

I'm from the Mid Atlantic region, plus spent 7 years in Delaware, the past 4 years on average around here is what I would average from where I grew up....So I guess I am sort of used to it, but spending the last 10 years up here, it has been rough from that standpoint. I mean, anything above 5" would be the 2nd biggest storm here since the 21/22 season...So maybe we can top that with this one

[WxWatcher007]

10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That's good. 

I'm not sure what to think of that...I am thinking that the dry air would probably be on the backside of the precip which could could help with some heavier rates. Would see a scenario of where it rips like 1-2" for a few hours then shuts off. Lots of details to iron out today 

That's where being a relatively fast mover probably helps. It's probably zipping fast enough to get the western 1/3 of CT into good rates for a bit. Unclear further east. 

[WxWatcher007]

First call map. Fairfield County and especially extreme SW CT are in the best place right now. Most of the state probably is good for 2-4" as it stands. Eastern CT at risk for more of a nuisance event. Wouldn't take many changes to alter where these zones line up tomorrow. 

[CoastalWx]

Clean whiff on the Nam for even CT. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Clean whiff on the Nam for even CT. 

I doubt this will verify. One single big band ?

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Clean whiff on the Nam for even CT. 

Cancel winter if that happens  

[Spanks45]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Clean whiff on the Nam for even CT. 

glad it was the nam, but that was a rough way to start 12z

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

NAM whiffs all of New England. Much worse than 6z

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

No doubt, definitely losing forcing as it approaches, euro pukes 1-2" rates for a few hours then just light snow after.. 

 

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That's where being a relatively fast mover probably helps. It's probably zipping fast enough to get the western 1/3 of CT into good rates for a bit. Unclear further east. 

Yup...I am still hedging southwest CT will get accumulating snow, how much, don't want to jump that gun yet but northwest of Fairfield County into the state...I think its going to be very difficult. I am not putting a lot of emphasis on the NAM into this event right now (until it becomes time to really narrow down where the nest banding will be) but guidance is in good agreement of where the strongest WAA will occur and this is where the heaviest snow and totals will occur. 

 

 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I doubt this will verify. One single big band ?

Actually that probably would be the case and that is exactly what Ryan indicated yesterday. 

[Spanks45]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I doubt this will verify. One single big band ?

I have to travel to PA on Saturday morning, regardless of what happens it looks like we will have to delay our trip until Sunday