Snow Potential Dec 26-27

[Winterweatherlover]

30 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

31 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Clear trend NBM trending north and east with heaviest snow band every 6 hours on the last 4 runs...

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Not surprising at all but fortunately not much time for it to move too much more, NYC still seems to be on the southwest edge of the heavy snow axis. I can see sleet mixing in SI, Brooklyn but still think generally 3-6 across the city is a good call with 6-10 immediately north of the city/north shore of LI.

[wthrmn654]

2 hours ago, kat5hurricane said:

Insane line at Stop & Shop. You'd think this was Boxing Day Blizzard Part 2 smh

Post holiday restocking of shelves and cupboards in people's houses or even new years prep likely lol

[MANDA]

3 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Not surprising at all but fortunately not much time for it to move too much more, NYC still seems to be on the southwest edge of the heavy snow axis. I can see sleet mixing in SI, Brooklyn but still think generally 3-6 across the city is a good call with 6-10 immediately north of the city/north shore of LI.

I agree except I don't see 10" amounts in this sub forum.

Holding firm to my forecast of 3-6" for my area.  See nothing to make me want to change it.

[Krs4Lfe]

20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

They should downgrade NYC to 3-5.

That would make the most sense. Most of the models have 6+ in NYC, but Euro has been consistent on around 5" or so. Mainly because the heaviest band will be farther to the north and may put us in a subsistence zone where we sleet or dry slot for a while. It really comes down to the initial thump of snow. If that sets up near NYC, would be hard to get under 6". But if we start sleeting, then it'll probably be under 5." 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Just now, MANDA said:

I agree except I don't see 10" amounts in this sub forum.

This forum includes places 50 miles and more north of NYC. People seem to forget that. 

[qg_omega]

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, MANDA said:

I agree except I don't see 10" amounts in this sub forum.

Holding firm to my forecast of 3-6" for my area.  See nothing to make me want to change it.

I'm pretty sure parts of the HV and Interior CT will see 6-10 inches from this unless the sleet line races way faster than expected (NAM style). 

[Krs4Lfe]

Just now, qg_omega said:

Yeah overall it has a much lesser-intensity snow band than the other models which is why it's been showing consistently lower snow totals than the other models. Verbatim, this would be a big bust for those south of NYC

[wthrmn654]

41 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

25 here

Just put salt down. Im ready .

You work for sanitation dept now? 

[Nibor]

2 minutes ago, MANDA said:

I agree except I don't see 10" amounts in this sub forum.

I think along and north of 84 could see some double digits. Wouldn’t be surprised if a few come in on Long Island. 

[wthrmn654]

26 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Wonder when Upton will update the snow map from 1 am.

[CentralNJSnowman]

Just now, wthrmn654 said:

The numbers showing on the maps have no correlation with the numbers on the map key.  For example, Syosset and Stony Brook say 3-8" on the maps, but their color says 8-12" on the key.  Similar discrepancies throughout the map.

[Picard]

It looks and feels like snow is coming.
Currently 22F, after a low of 15.

[Winterweatherlover]

3 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Given the potential for up to 7 inches and the fact its snow to sleet rather than snow to rain I think decent chance upton keeps the warning for everyone. Even if it does flip to sleet with temps in the 20s thats still very much winter weather. As is the case in the majority of storms in the immediate metro it's nowcasting.

[RU848789]

12Z Euro and later HRRR runs (13-16Z) are similar through 1 am with much less precip SW of about NYC to the Sussex/Warren border (~0.3") and both have temps above 32F for NYC and points SW and S of there by 1 am. Can't say I like the idea of getting light rain and maybe some freezing rain after that time.  On the other hadn, I was quite happy to see the NAM largely cave and the RGEM, UK and AIFS look snowier SW of NYC, so it's still a bit of a crapshoot on what's going to happen, especially on the SW side of the storm where lots of sleet is possible to likely.  

[wthrmn654]

1 minute ago, CentralNJSnowman said:

The numbers showing on the maps have no correlation with the numbers on the map key.  For example, Syosset and Stony Brook say 3-8" on the maps, but their color says 8-12" on the key.  Similar discrepancies throughout the map.

There not really off the colors. For example 8-12 is that mustard color while the ugly yellow is 6-8

[winterwarlock]

sad

 

[winterwarlock]

2 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

12Z Euro and later HRRR runs (13-16Z) are similar through 1 am with much less precip SW of about NYC to the Sussex/Warren border (~0.3") and both have temps above 32F for NYC and points SW and S of there by 1 am. Can't say I like the idea of getting light rain and maybe some freezing rain after that time.  On the other hadn, I was quite happy to see the NAM largely cave and the RGEM, UK and AIFS look snowier SW of NYC, so it's still a bit of a crapshoot on what's going to happen, especially on the SW side of the storm where lots of sleet is possible to likely.  

actually its the gfs starting to cave to the others

[Nibor]

Just now, wthrmn654 said:

There not really off the colors. For example 8-12 is that mustard color while the ugly yellow is 6-8

Did the yellow hurt you? 

[CentralNJSnowman]

1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said:

There not really off the colors. For example 8-12 is that mustard color while the ugly yellow is 6-8

Ah I see.  The ranges were right for the 'Expected' amounts, which seem to be equal to the top of the 'experimental, probabilistic amount ranges'.  Confusing way to present things, but at least kind of makes sense.

[allgame830]

8 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Yeah overall it has a much lesser-intensity snow band than the other models which is why it's been showing consistently lower snow totals than the other models. Verbatim, this would be a big bust for those south of NYC

enough with these 10:1 maps..... this is a MUCH colder storm and DGZ looks prime for ratios higher than the norm. 

[wthrmn654]

2 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Did the yellow hurt you? 

That's like the early 1900s whole outside of a house painted in yucky yellow kinda color so yes! 

[SnowGoose69]

The Euro has been low on QPF in most significant storms so far to impact the Midwest/Lakes/NE this last 2 months so I am not surprised to see it doing the same again.

[MANDA]

12 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

This forum includes places 50 miles and more north of NYC. People seem to forget that. 

I realize that but I still don't see 10" for this sub forum.  We'll know for sure in about 18 hours.

[allgame830]

3 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

actually its the gfs starting to cave to the others

I guess maybe if your south of the city..... like another poster said.  The subforum is NOT just the city and south. People do live north of the city as WELL!!!!!!!

[MANDA]

12 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I'm pretty sure parts of the HV and Interior CT will see 6-10 inches from this unless the sleet line races way faster than expected (NAM style). 

I could be wrong but I disagree.  Don't see that much QPF to generate 10".

[EastonSN+]

12 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

2 to 7 is a large range for CPK.

[allgame830]

1 minute ago, MANDA said:

I realize that but I still don't see 10" for this sub forum.  We'll know for sure in about 18 hours.

OK we'll.... id bet you $100 someone or multiple places get 10" within 50 miles of the city. That shouldnt be to hard with 2-4 hours of heavy snow!

[MANDA]

12 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Pretty broad ranges but I think most places will fall into those ranges.

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

actually its the gfs starting to cave to the others

The nam is