Snow Potential Dec 26-27

[Stormlover74]

Craig Allen

Update #3 

A little tweaking to accommodate the models trying to figure out a)where heavier bands may set up b)where warmer air may nose in aloft and result in sleet or freezing rain c)if the 32 degree surface temp makes it up the coast to the South Shore of LI

 

Finer details need to be ironed but I would stick with a general 4-8" for about 75-80% of the area. Heaviest will fall after dark, Friday and tapering off Saturday morning

 

See you at 6 and 11 on CBS New York /2

[winterwarlock]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I think it was a mistake that Mt. Holly lowered its Winter Storm Watch to an Advisory in North Central NJ - for one it sends the wrong message to the public.......many will think the storm is no big deal and start traveling when they should have stayed home....

Because it doesnt mean criteria

 

It a 3-6 inch event for that area..

 

The storm brunt is 9-4am..most wont be traveling

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Because it doesnt mean criteria

 

It a 3-6 inch event for that area..

public know that ? and how do you know its going to be only 3 -6 in Somerset County NJ ? Staten Island WSW and Somerset only an advisory ? Read what Roger just posted

[BoulderWX]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

public know that ? and how do you know its going to be only 3 -6 in Somerset County NJ ? Staten Island WSW and Somerset only an advisory ?

I mean it’s semantics at the end of the day and they have to cut off somewhere. The main thing is the public is informed either way whether you call it an advisory or warning. An inch or two difference in projection is all that’s different. Never understood why people cared so much about that - if you’re in the borderline of warning vs advisory you clearly know it could go either way. 

[NEG NAO]

[winterwarlock]

7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

public know that ? and how do you know its going to be only 3 -6 in Somerset County NJ ? Staten Island WSW and Somerset only an advisory ? Read what Roger just posted

Its not going to be 8 inches in Somerset

[NEG NAO]

Just now, BoulderWX said:

I mean it’s semantics at the end of the day and they have to cut off somewhere. The main thing is the public is informed either way whether you call it an advisory or warning. An inch or two difference in projection is all that’s different. Never understood why people cared so much about that - if you’re in the borderline of warning vs advisory you clearly know it could go either way. 

You have to realize not everyone is in tune with the meanings of weather terms BUT Winter Storm Warning comes across more seriously than just an Advisory to most folks.

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Its not going to be 8 inches in Somerset

Why ?

[EasternLI]

Which one of you is going to the park to take some measurements with photos? Somebody, c'mon now.

[Patrick-02540]

54 minutes ago, mob1 said:

RAP

Shove actual accumulation 30 to 50 miles north.  Reality.  

[NEG NAO]

Just now, EasternLI said:

Which one of you is going to the park to take some measurements with photos? Somebody, c'mon now.

whoever lives closest

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, Patrick-02540 said:

Shove actual accumulation 30 to 50 miles north.  Reality.  

what makes you think that ?

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

what makes you think that ?

she's wishcasting because she lives in Northeastern Connecticut lol

[NEG NAO]

I am posting all of these because there is such disagreement on amounts and locations of..

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Why ?

Because the nws forecast is 3 to 5. An advisory level event 

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Because the nws forecast is 3 to 5. An advisory level event 

Fair enough just trying to get reasoning not looking for confrontation

 

[golfer67]

9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

You have to realize not everyone is in tune with the meanings of weather terms BUT Winter Storm Warning comes across more seriously than just an Advisory to most folks.

Over/under 300 more people are going to die now because of this warning vs. advisory blunder?

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, golfer67 said:

Over/under 300 more people are going to die now because of this warning vs. advisory blunder?

Stupid post

[MJO812]

NYC and LI gets more snow on euro than 12z.

[North and West]

2/7/94 was insanely mild down in the TN Valley/SE.  ATL I believe hit 80 that day...might be closest match but February is a different story than Dec.  Its way easier for those places to get that warm in early February than late Dec

One of my all time favorite storms


.

[psv88]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

NYC and LI gets more snow on euro than 12z.

Yes please 

[EastonSN+]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

NYC and LI gets more snow on euro than 12z.

12z for reference 

[BoulderWX]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

NYC and LI gets more snow on euro than 12z.

This is the worst case portrayed and I’d still get 4 - not bad 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, BoulderWX said:

This is the worst case portrayed and I’d still get 4 - not bad 

It did move NE a bit. 

[mob1]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

It did move NE a bit. 

Yeah, looks a bit worse overall (unless you want to cherry pick a few areas that do better). 

[MJO812]

Qpf is patchy on the Euro

Courtesy of SNE thread

[MJO812]

Just now, mob1 said:

Yeah, looks a bit worse overall (unless you want to cherry pick a few areas that do better). 

Its better for us 

[mob1]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Its better for us 

It is indeed

[EastonSN+]

Just now, mob1 said:

Yeah, looks a bit worse overall (unless you want to cherry pick a few areas that do better). 

South of NYC got worse. More moisture for NYC, LI and points north. Can't move anymore for NYC.

[MJO812]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

South of NYC got worse. More moisture for NYC, LI and points north. Can't move anymore for NYC.

Thats the theme on all the models . We are fine.