mob1 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 Gross 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted December 25, 2025 Author Share Posted December 25, 2025 nam is getting discontinued for a reason it hasn't hit a home run since January 26th 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 3k Nam way further south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 Snow will be gone 2 days later so people need to chill . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 In my experience, if the NAM shows sleet inside 48 hours, even if it's an outlier compared to other guidance, it absolutely can happen and often does. There is a good chance this run is north of the final outcome. But I really don't think the trend should be dismissed. The silver lining is a 2-5" snowstorm is possible for the metro even in the NAM scenario. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 18z Rrfs 6-10 inches for the NYC area 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted December 25, 2025 Author Share Posted December 25, 2025 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 18z Rrfs 6-10 inches for the NYC area wasn't this a full whiff yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 4 minutes ago, eduggs said: In my experience, if the NAM shows sleet inside 48 hours, even if it's an outlier compared to other guidance, it absolutely can happen and often does. There is a good chance this run is north of the final outcome. But I really don't think the trend should be dismissed. The silver lining is a 2-5" snowstorm is possible for the metro even in the NAM scenario. Stop. You do this with every storm. Have a drink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: wasn't this a full whiff yesterday? Yes. HREF also in line with a moderate snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Winter storm Devin TWC backed off some, obviously... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 3 minutes ago, RU848789 said: TWC backed off some, obviously... Looks fair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 My NWS point/click for Metuchen is a general 4-8" (plus maybe another inch at the end), while my hourly weather graphic gives me 7.1", but the new advisory says 3-5" of snow/sleet and a glaze of ice and the snowmaps haven't actually been updated (people keep posting the same map from 4 am with new time stamps on them). I have no idea what to think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 1 minute ago, RU848789 said: My point/click for Metuchen is a general 4-8" (plus maybe another inch at the end), while my hourly weather graphic gives me 7.1", but the new advisory says 3-5" of snow/sleet and a glaze of ice and the snowmaps haven't actually been updated (people keep posting the same map from 4 am with new time stamps on them). I have no idea what to think. where is the point and click coming from ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 I’d also much rather a few less inches and getting a daytime snow than it all falling overnight. I like where we are 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 2 minutes ago, BoulderWX said: I’d also much rather a few less inches and getting a daytime snow than it all falling overnight. I like where we are The heaviest precipitation will probably fall after sunset... but it would be nice to get an hour or two of accumulating snow during daylight... we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 I’d also much rather a few less inches and getting a daytime snow than it all falling overnight. I like where we are I loved seeing the snow fall on Tuesday morning because of that. We had a few inches of snow in MMU Tuesday morning, it coated the trees, it fell heavily for a few hours, and it calmed me and made me happy right before Christmas. What else could you ask for as someone who likes snowstorms?. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 2 hours ago, Snowlover11 said: Will be a dicey situation. Snow should come in between 4-6pm. They should be able to get it. Then again it’s HPN. Small runway, etc. I fly in there all the time. Its not a matter of getting in anymore in 2025 with the airlines. It is social media publicity and liability. Big storm headed to NY area with a double digit snowfall possible? The airline is going to shutdown ops hours early and stay closed til the next day. 100% sure that cancels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 It's cool to see solidly subfreezing temperatures in place for an event for a change. It looks downright cold in the lower Hudson valley tomorrow. It should transform the landscape no matter what wintry precip. falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 I am in a warning now 4 - 8. I feel good about 6 here and if some ratios work out maybe an extra puff to get closer to 8. I’ll sign for 6 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 Probably gonna be some big parachute flakes as the sleet line approaches with flakes sticking together in the near freezing 700mb layer.. especially if winds aren't too strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 DT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 14 minutes ago, North and West said: I loved seeing the snow fall on Tuesday morning because of that. We had a few inches of snow in MMU Tuesday morning, it coated the trees, it fell heavily for a few hours, and it calmed me and made me happy right before Christmas. What else could you ask for as someone who likes snowstorms? . Im right by you in Morristown; also that map from DT isn’t one of his worst. lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 40 minutes ago, eduggs said: The problem is all other guidance has been shifting north, focusing the snow northeast of the NY-NJ border. And we're squarely in the short range now. That makes it more difficult to dismiss. Absolutely. Short range models like the NAM have a knack for noticing this stuff. And it wouldn’t really be a shock for a SWFE to be mainly sleet for our area, would it? That’s how it usually goes 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 24 minutes ago, BoulderWX said: Looks fair 28 minutes ago, RU848789 said: TWC backed off some, obviously... I love how they accounted for the inevitable under measurement for CPB with the blue stripe. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 ICON looks good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 3 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said: Absolutely. Short range models like the NAM have a knack for noticing this stuff. And it wouldn’t really be a shock for a SWFE to be mainly sleet for our area, would it? That’s how it usually goes Dude stop 3k Nam doesnt even agreed with it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 Just now, mob1 said: ICON looks good Still snowing and colder 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 Im right by you in Morristown; also that map from DT isn’t one of his worst. lolI hope Santa brought him map making software made in the twenty-first century . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Still snowing and colder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 2 minutes ago, North and West said: I hope Santa brought him map making software made in the twenty-first century . All these various models showing different amounts along with all the different forecasters showing different amounts in the same areas makes one wonder - does anyone have a handle on this storm ? Bust Watch just issued.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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