Snow Potential Dec 26-27

[mob1]

Gross 

[WeatherGeek2025]

nam is getting discontinued for a reason it hasn't hit a home run since January 26th 2016

[MJO812]

3k Nam way further south

[North and West]

Snow will be gone 2 days later so people need to chill 

.

[eduggs]

In my experience, if the NAM shows sleet inside 48 hours, even if it's an outlier compared to other guidance, it absolutely can happen and often does. There is a good chance this run is north of the final outcome. But I really don't think the trend should be dismissed.

The silver lining is a 2-5" snowstorm is possible for the metro even in the NAM scenario.

[MJO812]

18z Rrfs

6-10 inches for the NYC area

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

18z Rrfs

6-10 inches for the NYC area

wasn't this a full whiff yesterday?

[psv88]

4 minutes ago, eduggs said:

In my experience, if the NAM shows sleet inside 48 hours, even if it's an outlier compared to other guidance, it absolutely can happen and often does. There is a good chance this run is north of the final outcome. But I really don't think the trend should be dismissed.

The silver lining is a 2-5" snowstorm is possible for the metro even in the NAM scenario.

Stop. You do this with every storm. Have a drink 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

wasn't this a full whiff yesterday?

Yes. HREF also in line with a moderate snowstorm. 

[RU848789]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Winter storm Devin 

TWC backed off some, obviously...

[BoulderWX]

3 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

TWC backed off some, obviously...

Looks fair 

[RU848789]

My NWS point/click for Metuchen is a general 4-8" (plus maybe another inch at the end), while my hourly weather graphic gives me 7.1", but the new advisory says 3-5" of snow/sleet and a glaze of ice and the snowmaps haven't actually been updated (people keep posting the same map from 4 am with new time stamps on them). I have no idea what to think.

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

My point/click for Metuchen is a general 4-8" (plus maybe another inch at the end), while my hourly weather graphic gives me 7.1", but the new advisory says 3-5" of snow/sleet and a glaze of ice and the snowmaps haven't actually been updated (people keep posting the same map from 4 am with new time stamps on them). I have no idea what to think.

where is the point and click coming from ?

 

[BoulderWX]

I’d also much rather a few less inches and getting a daytime snow than it all falling overnight. I like where we are 

[eduggs]

2 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

I’d also much rather a few less inches and getting a daytime snow than it all falling overnight. I like where we are 

The heaviest precipitation will probably fall after sunset... but it would be nice to get an hour or two of accumulating snow during daylight... we'll see.

[North and West]

I’d also much rather a few less inches and getting a daytime snow than it all falling overnight. I like where we are 

I loved seeing the snow fall on Tuesday morning because of that. We had a few inches of snow in MMU Tuesday morning, it coated the trees, it fell heavily for a few hours, and it calmed me and made me happy right before Christmas. What else could you ask for as someone who likes snowstorms?


.

[the_other_guy]

2 hours ago, Snowlover11 said:

Will be a dicey situation. Snow should come in between 4-6pm. They should be able to get it. Then again it’s HPN. Small runway, etc.

I fly in there all the time. Its not a matter of getting in anymore in 2025 with the airlines.

It is social media publicity and liability.

Big storm headed to NY area with a double digit snowfall possible? The airline is going to shutdown ops hours early and stay closed til the next day.

 

100% sure that cancels. 

[eduggs]

It's cool to see solidly subfreezing temperatures in place for an event for a change. It looks downright cold in the lower Hudson valley tomorrow. It should transform the landscape no matter what wintry precip. falls.

[cleetussnow]

I am in a warning now 4 - 8. I feel good about 6 here and if some ratios work out maybe an extra puff to get closer to 8. I’ll sign for 6 though. 

[eduggs]

Probably gonna be some big parachute flakes as the sleet line approaches with flakes sticking together in the near freezing 700mb layer.. especially if winds aren't too strong.

[MJO812]

DT

[BoulderWX]

14 minutes ago, North and West said:

I loved seeing the snow fall on Tuesday morning because of that. We had a few inches of snow in MMU Tuesday morning, it coated the trees, it fell heavily for a few hours, and it calmed me and made me happy right before Christmas. What else could you ask for as someone who likes snowstorms?


.

Im right by you in Morristown; also that map from DT isn’t one of his worst. lol

[Krs4Lfe]

40 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The problem is all other guidance has been shifting north, focusing the snow northeast of the NY-NJ border. And we're squarely in the short range now. That makes it more difficult to dismiss.

Absolutely. Short range models like the NAM have a knack for noticing this stuff. And it wouldn’t really be a shock for a SWFE to be mainly sleet for our area, would it? That’s how it usually goes 

[EastonSN+]

24 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Looks fair 

 

28 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

TWC backed off some, obviously...

I love how they accounted for the inevitable under measurement for CPB with the blue stripe. 

[mob1]

ICON looks good 

 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Absolutely. Short range models like the NAM have a knack for noticing this stuff. And it wouldn’t really be a shock for a SWFE to be mainly sleet for our area, would it? That’s how it usually goes 

Dude stop

3k Nam doesnt even agreed with it

[MJO812]

Just now, mob1 said:

ICON looks good 

Still snowing and colder

[North and West]

Im right by you in Morristown; also that map from DT isn’t one of his worst. lol

I hope Santa brought him map making software made in the twenty-first century


.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Still snowing and colder

 

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, North and West said:

I hope Santa brought him map making software made in the twenty-first century


.

All these various models showing different amounts along with all the different forecasters showing different amounts in the same areas makes one wonder - does anyone have a handle on this storm ? Bust Watch just issued..........