Snow Potential Dec 26-27

[SnowGoose69]

I believe in the end the metro changes over to sleet for a decent period with this.  Still feel something like the RGEM or slightly NE happens but might get 3 plus before any changeover happens.  The model bias game right now based on their positions would argue a line from like WRN LI NW up through NE NJ/SW NY is the bullseye but I think this may shift 30-50 miles NE in the end.  If you asked me where I'd go now if I had to pick a spot to get slammed and I cannot move or change my mind once I pick it I'd go with Waterbury CT

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I believe in the end the metro changes over to sleet for a decent period with this.  Still feel something like the RGEM or slightly NE happens but might get 3 plus before any changeover happens.  The model bias game right now based on their positions would argue a line from like WRN LI NW up through NE NJ/SW NY is the bullseye but I think this may shift 30-50 miles NE in the end.  If you asked me where I'd go now if I had to pick a spot to get slammed and I cannot move or change my mind once I pick it I'd go with Waterbury CT

what's your reasoning? most models including gfs have all the lows scoot way south of us and it's going to be way colder

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

what's your reasoning? most models including gfs have all the lows scoot way south of us and it's going to be way colder

I think the shortwave will ultimately gain enough latitude over the Upper MW its going to be insanely hard to force it so far south we can clear everything at 700/850.  

[cleetussnow]

22 minutes ago, snywx said:

Sign me up

All day long. Lets do it the GFS way this time.

[MJO812]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

I think the shortwave will ultimately gain enough latitude over the Upper MW its going to be insanely hard to force it so far south we can clear everything at 700/850.  

Blocking is strong . I can see the coast changing over to sleet at the very end but this looks like a moderate snowstorm. 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

what's your reasoning? most models including gfs have all the lows scoot way south of us and it's going to be way colder

Yep temps in the 20s

[eduggs]

7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I believe in the end the metro changes over to sleet for a decent period with this.  Still feel something like the RGEM or slightly NE happens but might get 3 plus before any changeover happens.  The model bias game right now based on their positions would argue a line from like WRN LI NW up through NE NJ/SW NY is the bullseye but I think this may shift 30-50 miles NE in the end.  If you asked me where I'd go now if I had to pick a spot to get slammed and I cannot move or change my mind once I pick it I'd go with Waterbury CT

I'm not saying you're wrong... And I appreciate that you are willing to stick your neck out and anticipate future model shifts. But I think it's worth noting that all ensemble guidance prior to 0z kept the heaviest precipitation well southwest of CT. Both the ECM-AI and GFS-AI also have done so for several cycles. I mention this because the ensembles and AIs have done well in the mid-range recently with precipitation distribution. We have not necessarily been seeing a northward shift in the short range. I can offer no particular reason to think this event will shift one way or the other... so I'm watching the ensembles means and spreads.

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Yep temps in the 20s

Yeah I do not think anyone as of NOW would go to rain.  The GFS obviously at 78 hours shows a SE flow but that won't happen.  The higher RES RGEM shows the CAD signature clearly in that same time period.  We would need the surface low to go over like N NJ probably to see non frozen.  The low is simply not deep enough and the high in too good a location any wind from like LI back into NNJ will be like 010-050. 

[cleetussnow]

Gfs has that north trend on full display I was talking about  that effs over Philly.  For NYC, this is a good run but it needs to hold. Remember for the most snow, you need to sniff taint so roll the dice, city folks.  Rooting for that to break the 4 inch shit streak down there for y’all.  

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, cleetussnow said:

Gfs has that north trend on full display I was talking about  that effs over Philly.  For NYC, this is a good run but it needs to hold. Remember for the most snow, you need to sniff taint so roll the dice, city folks.  Rooting for that to break the 4 inch shit streak down there for y’all.  

we need the GFS run to verify that's literally as good as it's going to get for this storm

[NorthShoreWx]

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think the shortwave will ultimately gain enough latitude over the Upper MW its going to be insanely hard to force it so far south we can clear everything at 700/850.  

When the irresistible force meets the immovable object, someone could wind up under a death band even if the shortwave is a little sheared.  Fun to track.

[cleetussnow]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

we need the GFS run to verify that's literally as good as it's going to get for this storm

A bit soon for a lock which is worrying.  We got 8 more cycles to go for that.  Might wobble some and expect it, so we will need to come back to ourselves and not get overly concerned.  We don’t want big moves, thats for sure.  

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Blocking is strong . I can see the coast changing over to sleet at the very end but this looks like a moderate snowstorm. 

Reminds me of the Dec 2020 system somewhat. It won't be that intensity but it'll come down to it comes in like a wall or shredded. Feb's SWFE came in more like a wall and we had 4-6" for almost all. Dec 2020 came in shredded and it was still a very nice event here, but it was 8" vs 12+ because the shredded up precip shield allowed the warm mid level air to take over. We need this blocking to happen. 

[H2Otown_WX]

23 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I believe in the end the metro changes over to sleet for a decent period with this.  Still feel something like the RGEM or slightly NE happens but might get 3 plus before any changeover happens.  The model bias game right now based on their positions would argue a line from like WRN LI NW up through NE NJ/SW NY is the bullseye but I think this may shift 30-50 miles NE in the end.  If you asked me where I'd go now if I had to pick a spot to get slammed and I cannot move or change my mind once I pick it I'd go with Waterbury CT

I'm listening (though I'm 10 miles north now)

[Snowlover11]

Bring that gfs a little southeast. No jackpot=bust JK good run 5-10”+

[MJO812]

0z euro

Weird spotty precip on this run

[snowman19]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

0z euro

Weird spotty precip on this run

Why are you posting the Kuchera ratio map? There’s a reason why the National Weather Service never uses it

[MJO812]

[The 4 Seasons]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Why are you posting the Kuchera ratio map? There’s a reason why the National Weather Service never uses it

Because it shows the most snow...

The kuchera maps are ridiculous for the storm like nearly 1.5X or double 10:1 because its so frigid, esp N and W. When it's cold Kuchera will show a lot of snow. Doesn't take into account lift in the DGZ, frontogenesis or anything...strictly based on temps. I agree with the NWS and a lot of mets on here. I don't use it, it's useless imo. 

[MJO812]

20 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Because it shows the most snow...

The kuchera maps are ridiculous for the storm like nearly 1.5X or double 10:1 because its so frigid, esp N and W. When it's cold Kuchera will show a lot of snow. Doesn't take into account lift in the DGZ, frontogenesis or anything...strictly based on temps. I agree with the NWS and a lot of mets on here. I don't use it, it's useless imo. 

Everyone has their opinion on the kuchera. Mixed reactions because this will be a high ratio snow. I was told to use it with high ratios. I never did at all though.

[The 4 Seasons]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Everyone has their opinion on the kuchera. Mixed reactions because this will be a high ratio snow. I was told to use it with high ratios.

I think you'll find nearly every met in the SNE forums will tell you don't use it. 

There's a lot more to snow growth and high ratios then just temperatures. You can easily get 8-10:1 arctic sand with needles and plates with temps in the 10s and conversely you can get 15-30:1 fluff with sfc temps near freezing. 

Kuchera is always gonna be inflated really high like this when the column is very cold. 

You can use it if you want, im just saying there's a lot more to look at than pretty kuchera snowfall maps. 

[MJO812]

Gefs bumped north with the qpf

[The 4 Seasons]

This system reminds me of Jan 14-15, 2004. Low track diving SE and snowfall gradient are similar. That's the only storm that comes to mind with this event that i can think of. 

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/jan-14-15-2004

[IrishRob17]

51 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I think you'll find nearly every met in the SNE forums will tell you don't use it. 

There's a lot more to snow growth and high ratios then just temperatures. You can easily get 8-10:1 arctic sand with needles and plates with temps in the 10s and conversely you can get 15-30:1 fluff with sfc temps near freezing. 

Kuchera is always gonna be inflated really high like this when the column is very cold. 

You can use it if you want, im just saying there's a lot more to look at than pretty kuchera snowfall maps. 

You nailed that map in your posts, it's the weeniest map of them all. 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Everyone has their opinion on the kuchera. Mixed reactions because this will be a high ratio snow. I was told to use it with high ratios. I never did at all though.

Can you explain why exactly this is going to be a very high ratio snow other than “it’s going to be very cold”? 

[The 4 Seasons]

9 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

You nailed that map in your posts, it's the weeniest map of them all. 

What map? The forecast for the dec 23rd event?

[IrishRob17]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

What map? The forecast for this event?

The Kuchera map

[MJO812]

  Blocking is easing up to make this storm go slightly further north. Now the interior areas of NY look like the jackpot.

 

Nothing wrong with a few inches though. 

[snowman19]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

  Blocking is easing up to make this storm go slightly further north. Now the interior areas of NY look like the jackpot.

 

Nothing wrong with a few inches though. 

This is likely a 3-5 event for NYC metro area. Consider it a big win given then extreme -PNA (full latitude trough down to Baja) that’s going to be in place during this event

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

This is likely a 3-5 event for NYC metro area. Consider it a big win given then extreme -PNA (full latitude trough down to Baja) that’s going to be in place during this event

I like 3-6 right now for NYC.  Possible more if we can get into the banding.