North and West Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago Euro colderCan’t believe I’m saying this, but does a storm like this give 1994 vibes to the old timers here? Just the unusualness of it, if it occurs.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 8 minutes ago, North and West said: Can’t believe I’m saying this, but does a storm like this give 1994 vibes to the old timers here? Just the unusualness of it, if it occurs. . Not sure, maybe, but I'm leaving open the possibility that we have one of those rare years where everything over performs like 2005. If nothing happens tomorrow or Friday, then probably not. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 7 minutes ago, North and West said: Can’t believe I’m saying this, but does a storm like this give 1994 vibes to the old timers here? Just the unusualness of it, if it occurs. . Nothing ever took that funky track but these were back to back overrunning events, first one was all snow, 2nd one was mixed. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1994/us0126.php https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1994/us0127.php 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago Not sure, maybe, but I'm leaving open the possibility that we have one of those rare years where everything over performs like 2005. If nothing happens tomorrow or Friday, then probably not.I got you. I’m thinking more about the individual event; that year will never be replicated.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 24 minutes ago, North and West said: Can’t believe I’m saying this, but does a storm like this give 1994 vibes to the old timers here? Just the unusualness of it, if it occurs. . Lots of overrunning snow to sleet to freezing rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago Icon gonna be south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Icon gonna be south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago Way south from past runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Way south from past runs Verbatim Thats a pretty quick mover . In and out in about 8 hours. Seems like the further south it goes, it becomes a bit more sheared out and a bit quicker moving as well 2 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said: Verbatim Thats a pretty quick mover . In and out in about 8 hours. Seems like the further south it goes, it becomes a bit more sheared out and a bit quicker moving as well Are you ever happy ? 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago AI gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted 11 hours ago Author Share Posted 11 hours ago 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: AI gfs MECS? Anthony? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: MECS? Anthony? Gfs is a beauty 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago Both GFS and GFS-AI ticked slightly further north vs. 18z. Still snowy (some ice SW) for most areas. Kind of the sweet spot right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago Heavy precip from Philly to NYC 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago Wintry 5 days on the GFS! Might even squeeze in some flakes or ZR on Xmas day in the weak wave in between the Tue and Fri night events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago Not much margin for error since the cold side precipitation is unlikely to be extremely widespread. But run to run changes are decreasing in magnitude and most mid-range guidance appears to be converging on at least some wintry precip. locally. Obviously a fringing or ZR to rain are still possible but the envelope appears to be shrinking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago Gfs is what you want to see 5 days out. We want this thing to have wiggle room to come north. This is a weird storm though. Like some kind of atomic clipper. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted 11 hours ago Author Share Posted 11 hours ago that's a nice run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 6 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: Gfs is what you want to see 5 days out. We want this thing to have wiggle room to come north. This is a weird storm though. Like some kind of atomic clipper. We used to get these all the time in the 90s and early 2000s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago Cmc 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago Still 4 days out but the most likely scenario seems to be a period of snow... Perhaps a thump of a few inches followed by sleet and ending as drizzle. Esp sw of the city. Cold air could hold on longer east and north of the city 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago The Euro and AIFS both look great! Most of the snow falls from 7 pm Friday to 7 am Sat. Just about every model is on board, but we're still 4 days away and much can still change...but I like where we are right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago AI gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Gfs is a tick south and colder 6 plus for many 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 58 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs is a tick south and colder 6 plus for many Your Icon came way back N. Looks terrible verbatim for NYC which is why im assuming you didn't post it but a big hit for CT. Either way id rather have it trend in that direction than S again. Not that it means much coming from the Icon. This seems like a highly volatile situation and anomalous storm track. I don't recall any storms in the past that tracked like this giving a region wide warning event. I tried to look at CIPS but it seems they stopped running models on 12/18 for some reason. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Euro and Euro AI unchanged 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Euro and Euro AI unchanged Very unusual setup for us. It's kind of a mix between a SWFE and Overrunning. Blocking looks really strong, you can see the shortwave get shredded as it comes east. But there's enough cold air and moisture in place before that happens for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Very unusual setup for us. It's kind of a mix between a SWFE and Overrunning. Blocking looks really strong, you can see the shortwave get shredded as it comes east. But there's enough cold air and moisture in place before that happens for us Euro and eps shreds this. Thats why totals are lower but still a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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