Light Snowfall (1" - 4") on Tuesday Dec 23 For NYC Region (Discussion & Observations)

[eduggs]

This could be either a great local NWS forecast or a terrible one. With multiple days of 0.1 - 0.3" liquid model forecasts with a snow-supporting model profile across the interior... forecasting <1" of snow accumulation is ballsy. I respect the conservative approach. And there are reasons to be cautions with an unfavorable angle of precip. approach, non-uniform precip. shield, and possibly above freezing surface temperatures. But if it turns into a messy morning commute, many will be unprepared. 

[psv88]

I’m expecting nothing out here. 

[Krs4Lfe]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

I’m expecting nothing out here. 

Maybe some light rain but other than that, nothing else. Probably a wet Dusting in NYC. QPF has been a bit bullish but I believe NWS is rightfully unimpressed  

[mikeysed]

Some towns already pre treating some road ways in north jersey. 

[Snowlover11]

3 minutes ago, mikeysed said:

Some towns already pre treating some road ways in north jersey. 

You would think a blizzard is coming. My job’s parking lot looks like a truck full of table salt tipped over.

[Northof78]

All models colder/south @ 12Z and NAM with very large shift to join the others, on track for most here to get a nice 1" - 3" event. 

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

All models colder/south @ 12Z and NAM with very large shift to join the others, on track for most here to get a nice 1" - 3" event. 

Problem is precip is delayed on the nam and would arrive after temps climb above freezing 

[WeatherGeek2025]

31 minutes ago, psv88 said:

I’m expecting nothing out here. 

you may squeeze an inch

[Northof78]

8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Problem is precip is delayed on the nam and would arrive after temps climb above freezing 

Even NAM verbatim is 1" down to TTN, with a fresh cold arimass in place, pattern always supported a nice light snowfall and all models now show that. 

[winterwx21]

I'm expecting about an inch here. It will be nice to see a couple days before Christmas. 

[snywx]

51 minutes ago, eduggs said:

This could be either a great local NWS forecast or a terrible one. With multiple days of 0.1 - 0.3" liquid model forecasts with a snow-supporting model profile across the interior... forecasting <1" of snow accumulation is ballsy. I respect the conservative approach. And there are reasons to be cautions with an unfavorable angle of precip. approach, non-uniform precip. shield, and possibly above freezing surface temperatures. But if it turns into a messy morning commute, many will be unprepared. 

All recent guidance is showing a general 3-4” for the 84 corridor. Not sure if I believe it yet. I’m still sticking with 1” or so 

[RU848789]

Further improvement on the AIFS...I think most would take this and run, especially along 95.  

[psv88]

39 minutes ago, snywx said:

All recent guidance is showing a general 3-4” for the 84 corridor. Not sure if I believe it yet. I’m still sticking with 1” or so 

i think your area will do well, as usual. 3-4" is a safe bet.