12/14: Sunday funday? Will the south win again?

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’d probably make a 1.5 hour drive home for a 2-3” event and free lodging & food if I wouldn’t need to turn around just a few hours later. But this isn’t a big dog. You’d be okay to stay put.
 

If you’ve got no reason to be in Cville any longer for the semester, I’d rally back for sure. 

I got an English (online) 8am Tuesday and a chemistry final (in person) 7pm Tuesday but otherwise I'm free. I've decided Ill make a list of study topics for chemistry and if I finish them it'll be a 10pm-midnight car adventure for me!

[LeesburgWx]

What’s the true timing of this?

[Kay]

Just pulled the snow shovel out, and you know what that means, that means nothing because jinxes aren't real.

Glad this has evolved into much wider event! It was agonizing tracking a narrow band. It's fun seeing mby be in or near the jackpot. In honesty, and this is not a meteorological opinion, usually the highest totals will wind up at least a bit NW of here, even when we are favored, will not be surprised at all. Let's roll!!!

[TSSN+]

41 and cloudy here but dew is 22. 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

41 and cloudy here but dew is 22. 

mPING reports of all snow in southern Franklin County. Encouraging. 

[GATECH]

2 minutes ago, Kay said:

Just pulled the snow shovel out, and you know what that means, that means nothing because jinxes aren't real.

Glad this has evolved into much wider event! It was agonizing tracking a narrow band. It's fun seeing mby be in or near the jackpot. In honesty, and this is not a meteorological opinion, usually the highest totals will wind up at least a bit NW of here, even when we are favored, will not be surprised at all. Let's roll!!!

Let me tell you about the $1500 snow blower I bought in mid Feb 2010 and never used until 2014!  Jinxes are real…and sometimes expensive!

[MDScienceTeacher]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

mPING reports of all snow in southern Franklin County. Encouraging. 

I’m gonna go out in a limb here and say the precipitation type is not gonna be an issue except maybe for the first half an hour

[MDScienceTeacher]

This is the coldest it’s been leading up to any snow event since maybe 10 years as far as I can remember

[adelphi_sky]

1 minute ago, GATECH said:

Let me tell you about the $1500 snow blower I bought in mid Feb 2010 and never used until 2014!  Jinxes are real…and sometimes expensive!

I was going to say. Same thing happened to me. Bought a snowblower and used it two winters later!

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

This is the coldest it’s been leading up to any snow event since maybe 10 years as far as I can remember

Agreed. Unlike other events, we have cold ground at night, and there's a fresh press of legit continental polar air coming in. The Bittinger mesonet site is already down to 27°, and the Frostburg site is down to 28°.

[Maestrobjwa]

26 minutes ago, jayyy said:

.5” QPF would be lit

Or how about .6 just because 

[SnowenOutThere]

Latest HRRR looks legit

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Latest HRRR looks legit

Keeps thundersnow dreams alive as well

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Keeps thundersnow dreams alive as well

I think this is the best hrrr run for loudoun, and its been more conservative than other models with the SW tail end.  

[TSSN+]

5 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Latest HRRR looks legit

I‘m going streaking! 
 

[aldie 22]

Funny the HRRR playing catch-up and CWG latest update really downplaying the event. Must be a warminista at the desk this afternoon 

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

I think this is the best hrrr run for loudoun, and its been more conservative than other models with the SW tail end.  

It would even get snow to my current location in Charlottesville; though I think I won't be making that risk and I'll drive back tonight. Besides, I have been a good luck charm so far this winter and thought I'd help you guys out. 

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Keeps thundersnow dreams alive as well

Now what do you see there that would say thundersnow? (Real question not sarcasm, lol)

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

I think this is the best hrrr run for loudoun, and its been more conservative than other models with the SW tail end.  

The HRRR hated Loudoun but you could see it creeping with each run. Guess we are close to a general consensus now give or take

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

Funny the HRRR playing catch-up and CWG latest update really downplaying the event. Must beca warminista at the desk this afternoon 

20% chance at 50% chance of boom.  

[Kay]

17 minutes ago, Kay said:

Just pulled the snow shovel out, and you know what that means, that means nothing because jinxes aren't real.

Glad this has evolved into much wider event! It was agonizing tracking a narrow band. It's fun seeing mby be in or near the jackpot. In honesty, and this is not a meteorological opinion, usually the highest totals will wind up at least a bit NW of here, even when we are favored, will not be surprised at all. Let's roll!!!

The HRRRRR says yeah, true

6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Latest HRRR looks legit

 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

The lightning threat needs to continue to tick south. 

[Eskimo Joe]

9 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Latest HRRR looks legit

Wow 

[NorthArlington101]

things that make you go hmmm

[stormtracker]

Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

The lightning threat needs to continue to tick south. 

I'd like that too, but beggars can't be choosers.  Haven't heard much about that thread up norther either tbh

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now what do you see there that would say thundersnow? (Real question not sarcasm, lol)

The map shows lightning flashes. So if there’s some possible then there ya go. 

[T. August]

1 minute ago, Kay said:

The HRRRRR says yeah, true

 

Man if we get 5.0” I would be ecstatic. That would be the most since Feb 2019.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

things that make you go hmmm

Beefin up 

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now what do you see there that would say thundersnow? (Real question not sarcasm, lol)

That the model shows lightning flash density. To be honest I have no idea what makes lightning happen (neither did my professor the best we have is a separation of negatively charged graupel and ice crystals in a convection cell). Though I'm sure the strong lift throughout the column and positive temp advection in the 700mb layer have something to do with it.  

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

things that make you go hmmm

Keep creeping back south and east with that heavier stuff...give us 2 more ticks