SnowenOutThere Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I’d probably make a 1.5 hour drive home for a 2-3” event and free lodging & food if I wouldn’t need to turn around just a few hours later. But this isn’t a big dog. You’d be okay to stay put. If you’ve got no reason to be in Cville any longer for the semester, I’d rally back for sure. I got an English (online) 8am Tuesday and a chemistry final (in person) 7pm Tuesday but otherwise I'm free. I've decided Ill make a list of study topics for chemistry and if I finish them it'll be a 10pm-midnight car adventure for me! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 What’s the true timing of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 Just pulled the snow shovel out, and you know what that means, that means nothing because jinxes aren't real. Glad this has evolved into much wider event! It was agonizing tracking a narrow band. It's fun seeing mby be in or near the jackpot. In honesty, and this is not a meteorological opinion, usually the highest totals will wind up at least a bit NW of here, even when we are favored, will not be surprised at all. Let's roll!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 13, 2025 Author Share Posted December 13, 2025 41 and cloudy here but dew is 22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: 41 and cloudy here but dew is 22. mPING reports of all snow in southern Franklin County. Encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 2 minutes ago, Kay said: Just pulled the snow shovel out, and you know what that means, that means nothing because jinxes aren't real. Glad this has evolved into much wider event! It was agonizing tracking a narrow band. It's fun seeing mby be in or near the jackpot. In honesty, and this is not a meteorological opinion, usually the highest totals will wind up at least a bit NW of here, even when we are favored, will not be surprised at all. Let's roll!!! Let me tell you about the $1500 snow blower I bought in mid Feb 2010 and never used until 2014! Jinxes are real…and sometimes expensive! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: mPING reports of all snow in southern Franklin County. Encouraging. I’m gonna go out in a limb here and say the precipitation type is not gonna be an issue except maybe for the first half an hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 This is the coldest it’s been leading up to any snow event since maybe 10 years as far as I can remember 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 1 minute ago, GATECH said: Let me tell you about the $1500 snow blower I bought in mid Feb 2010 and never used until 2014! Jinxes are real…and sometimes expensive! I was going to say. Same thing happened to me. Bought a snowblower and used it two winters later! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 1 minute ago, MDScienceTeacher said: This is the coldest it’s been leading up to any snow event since maybe 10 years as far as I can remember Agreed. Unlike other events, we have cold ground at night, and there's a fresh press of legit continental polar air coming in. The Bittinger mesonet site is already down to 27°, and the Frostburg site is down to 28°. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 26 minutes ago, jayyy said: .5” QPF would be lit Or how about .6 just because 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 Latest HRRR looks legit 10 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Latest HRRR looks legit Keeps thundersnow dreams alive as well 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Keeps thundersnow dreams alive as well I think this is the best hrrr run for loudoun, and its been more conservative than other models with the SW tail end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 13, 2025 Author Share Posted December 13, 2025 5 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Latest HRRR looks legit I‘m going streaking! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 Funny the HRRR playing catch-up and CWG latest update really downplaying the event. Must be a warminista at the desk this afternoon 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: I think this is the best hrrr run for loudoun, and its been more conservative than other models with the SW tail end. It would even get snow to my current location in Charlottesville; though I think I won't be making that risk and I'll drive back tonight. Besides, I have been a good luck charm so far this winter and thought I'd help you guys out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 5 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Keeps thundersnow dreams alive as well Now what do you see there that would say thundersnow? (Real question not sarcasm, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: I think this is the best hrrr run for loudoun, and its been more conservative than other models with the SW tail end. The HRRR hated Loudoun but you could see it creeping with each run. Guess we are close to a general consensus now give or take 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 1 minute ago, aldie 22 said: Funny the HRRR playing catch-up and CWG latest update really downplaying the event. Must beca warminista at the desk this afternoon 20% chance at 50% chance of boom. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 17 minutes ago, Kay said: Just pulled the snow shovel out, and you know what that means, that means nothing because jinxes aren't real. Glad this has evolved into much wider event! It was agonizing tracking a narrow band. It's fun seeing mby be in or near the jackpot. In honesty, and this is not a meteorological opinion, usually the highest totals will wind up at least a bit NW of here, even when we are favored, will not be surprised at all. Let's roll!!! The HRRRRR says yeah, true 6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Latest HRRR looks legit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 The lightning threat needs to continue to tick south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 9 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Latest HRRR looks legit Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 things that make you go hmmm 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: The lightning threat needs to continue to tick south. I'd like that too, but beggars can't be choosers. Haven't heard much about that thread up norther either tbh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 13, 2025 Author Share Posted December 13, 2025 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Now what do you see there that would say thundersnow? (Real question not sarcasm, lol) The map shows lightning flashes. So if there’s some possible then there ya go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 1 minute ago, Kay said: The HRRRRR says yeah, true Man if we get 5.0” I would be ecstatic. That would be the most since Feb 2019. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 13, 2025 Author Share Posted December 13, 2025 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: things that make you go hmmm Beefin up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Now what do you see there that would say thundersnow? (Real question not sarcasm, lol) That the model shows lightning flash density. To be honest I have no idea what makes lightning happen (neither did my professor the best we have is a separation of negatively charged graupel and ice crystals in a convection cell). Though I'm sure the strong lift throughout the column and positive temp advection in the 700mb layer have something to do with it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: things that make you go hmmm Keep creeping back south and east with that heavier stuff...give us 2 more ticks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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