Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[pasnownut]

Looking back over the nooners (so far), GFS is a southern outlier because its a strung out mess.  CMC/ICON much more consolidated with nice qpf distributio and while slower in progression are much cleaner in evolution.  Does that mean they are right....dunno, but that's my take.  

[paweather]

Long duration on the 12z EURO. Looks good.

[canderson]

30 minutes ago, paweather said:

Late Saturday overnight or Sunday morning

Thank you 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

GFS says what MA storm....

healthy case of suppression depression.

 

While we dont like, cant dismiss as many have suggested the cold press may do this.  

 

I'd be lying if I said the depth of the cold didn't have me a bit on edge.  Still like where we sit but things are FAR from locked.  One of many big Euro runs incoming. 

[WmsptWx]

Looks like Euro is getting .75 QPF into the area. 

[pasnownut]

3 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I'd be lying if I said the depth of the cold didn't have me a bit on edge.  Still like where we sit but things are FAR from locked.  One of many big Euro runs incoming. 

Fortunately the lowest scoring GFS is the only one saying this.  

CMC/ICON and Euro say otherwise, so there's that.

Looking at 500's on GFS vs its twin big brothers, GEFS/GEPS both look better w/ trough axis, so would probably argue against what their little brother is spittin out.  Me thinks anyway.  

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, WmsptWx said:

Looks like Euro is getting .75 QPF into the area. 

at 15:1 you got 10" to turn that frown upside down.  Hope it holds for you. 

[paweather]

12z EURO

[WmsptWx]

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

at 15:1 you got 10" to turn that frown upside down.  Hope it holds for you. 

I would take it. Also, we need the water here desperately, so the more moisture we can get out of this the better. 

[GrandmasterB]

Just based on QPF, I like the 12Z run a little better than the 0Z run. Solid hold for sure and nowhere near the GFS.

[paweather]

2 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Just based on QPF, I like the 12Z run a little better than the 0Z run. Solid hold for sure and nowhere near the GFS.

Agreed good 12z runs 

[MAG5035]

Here’s Euros total QPF, trying to separate the storm QPF from the event Thursday thats going to deliver several more inches of snow in NW PA. 

 

 

Also, surface temps for this are insane. Here’s the 135 hr frame, which was basically the best 6hr precip frame for our area.

Temps are like that the entire event. Normally you see temps like that and would think one would be smoking cirrus.  I know ‘96 started with temps that cold, but I don’t think temps stayed there the entire event. Even if we don’t see the best QPF the whole column is essentially in the ideal snow growth temp range. 

[AccuChris]

Here’s Euros total QPF, trying to separate the storm QPF from the event Thursday thats going to deliver several more inches of snow in NW PA. 

 
 
Also, surface temps for this are insane. Here’s the 135 hr frame, which was basically the best 6hr precip frame for our area.

Temps are like that the entire event. Normally you see temps like that and would think one would be smoking cirrus.  I know ‘96 started with temps that cold, but I don’t think temps stayed there the entire event. Even if we don’t see the best QPF the whole column is essentially in the ideal snow growth temp range. 

Thats how you get 20:1 ratios and get a foot of snow with half the QPF


.

[GrandmasterB]

Adding to what MAG and AccuChris stated on ratios here’s Millville from MA forum, “If you are north of the M/D, your average ratios will likely be >13:1”

[paweather]

I’ll take a 8-12” storm

[sauss06]

39 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

I would take it. Also, we need the water here desperately, so the more moisture we can get out of this the better. 

i didn't realize you guys were still behind

[WmsptWx]

Just now, sauss06 said:

i didn't realize you guys were still behind

I am about 15 mins from Fulton county now. Only county in the state in a drought warning.

[canderson]

36 minutes ago, paweather said:

I’ll take a 8-12” storm

The perfect storm amount imo. Not too much to absolutely destroy a week, but enough to kill a a day or two. 

Fluffy snow makes it even better since it’s easier to clear! 

 

FAIW Broadway show runners are already messaging about potential snow impacts. 

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

Here’s Euros total QPF, trying to separate the storm QPF from the event Thursday thats going to deliver several more inches of snow in NW PA. 

 

 

Also, surface temps for this are insane. Here’s the 135 hr frame, which was basically the best 6hr precip frame for our area.

Temps are like that the entire event. Normally you see temps like that and would think one would be smoking cirrus.  I know ‘96 started with temps that cold, but I don’t think temps stayed there the entire event. Even if we don’t see the best QPF the whole column is essentially in the ideal snow growth temp range. 

1996 I started with a temp of 10. I got to 20 at the height of the storm.

[mahantango#1]

DT: 

✳️  CRITICAL UPDATE ON JAN 24-25  EVENT--  and  the  Tuesday 12z   OP- GFS  MODEL RUN... ✳️

 ......  For the love of God will somebody please fix this appallingly bad model?...

 The Tuesday 12z GFS / GFS AI model again for some reason sinks the whole system southward -- to the point where gotten to the point of almost no snow in DC  to NYC .   

I have said this before many times--the GFS model is trash for East Coast winter storms  beyond 78 hrs .

 It  always over does  the cold air, shows suppressed  system and always has storms move off the coast.  

Then once are within 72 hrs  we see the pathetic
.., " IT IS TRENDING  NORTH  !!!... 

 I can pull up the  GFS Models  runs from  days before January 2016 ... February 2014 ... December 2009 ... February 2010 ... 9 December 2018 ....  and time after time after time the GFS model ALWAYS  does this.  

▶️PROOF?  the  12Z  Tuesday OP GFS  & GFs AI  models dont match its own ensembles.  ◀️

Look  I know there are folks out there that think I take the giant dump on the GFS model for with East Coast winter storms for no reason or because I simply don't like the solution.  

Well I don't live in Washington DC or Baltimore Philly so it  this has nothing to do with what I want.  

It is a bad model Beyond 78 hours  when it comes to East Coast winter storms. Always has been and then probably always will be. 

 ⚠️  Finally the crappy GFS model actually INCREASE  uncertainty  especially for meteorologists that don't  look at ensembles or people who are just weather presenters.    ⚠️

You have one solution of 12 inches and then another model which gives a solution of under 2 inches.  This sort of ridiculous variance is useless in forecasting. 

I mean what's the weather forecast going to be?   

....Partly cloudy chance of   snow  with accumulations between 0 to 12 inches?...

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