Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[canderson]

3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

you win.  i saw 6

 

My temp isn’t super super accurate probably- I have a tiny bit of snow left and the gauge is above that. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

HRRR cuts snow totals a bit for southern tier counties due to sleet encroachment but still ~10".  Sets up a Route 30 battle zone through much of the late afternoon.  Rates likely to determine precip type, but one thing that is becoming clear, those of us down this way will indeed see some sleet during the height of the storm, perhaps significantly so.  I just never trust the globals to properly capture the warm noses and it seems it may have happened again.  Positive spin, as others have alluded, some sleet on top of a nice thump just adds to pack retention.  High impact event no matter how you slice it.

[paweather]

OH and CTP still over a foot lol

[pasnownut]

44 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

I may go full tilt is it's seven degrees outside and fuckin raining :LOL:

If you get rain, I'll walk to your house,

shovel your driveway....

then walk home.

[WmsptWx]

2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

 High impact event no matter how you slice it.

 

[pasnownut]

9 minutes ago, canderson said:

My temp isn’t super super accurate probably- I have a tiny bit of snow left and the gauge is above that. 

Mine is....

its NWS generated....

I cheated

[str8liner]

WC has 3-5 tonight, and 12 plus for me tomorrow now, and the NWS has 13......But they do keep the ice well east of my area.

Hope the lowered NWS totals are wrong, but in my experiences for my area they are usually right.

We got to zero last night for temps too. 

[pasnownut]

CTP hasnt budged for me

1-3/6-10/1-3

Tells me they know were in the battlezone, and 2-3 hrs of snow/taint, will make/break there forecast.

I'm givin them props for this one.  Really like how theyve handled it so far.  

[canderson]

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

CTP hasnt budged for me

1-3/6-10/1-3

Tells me they know were in the battlezone, and 2-3 hrs of snow/taint, will make/break there forecast.

I'm givin them props for this one.  Really like how theyve handled it so far.  

1-3

6-10

2-4

for me they say 

[paweather]

Not very organized down south yet hope things look better this afternoon/evening 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

NAM through 24 is nearly identical to 6z.

[pasnownut]

7 minutes ago, canderson said:

1-3

6-10

2-4

for me they say 

the mean for you

13.9"   #imwinninthesnowfallcontest

[Blizzard of 93]

14 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Sleet line definitely encroaching much more at the height of the storm than at 6z, up to Lanc/Dauphin border by ~3pm.

Edit:  Although much like 6z, it starts to get beat back right after that, a true battle zone. 

Yes, it will be a battle in the southern tier counties tomorrow afternoon. This HRRR run shows heavy snow for everyone through at least noon. Then southern York & Lanco mix & it inches back & forth in the LSV. Harrisburg, Carlisle & Lebanon stay all snow this run until early evening. Then all of the LSV is mixing through the evening as rates back down according to this run.

[pasnownut]

7 minutes ago, paweather said:

Not very organized down south yet hope things look better this afternoon/wvening 

good

I'm down with that.

[canderson]

Ok so let’s say we know meet is coming. 
 

Should we shovel the 10” or whatever if slow late afternoon or let it all fall and deal with it Monday as a frozen icebox? 

[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, it will be a battle in the southern tier counties tomorrow afternoon. This HRRR run shows heavy snow for everyone through at least noon. Then southern York & Lanco mix & it inches back & forth in the LSV. Harrisburg, Carlisle & Lebanon stay all snow this run until early evening. Then all of the LSV is mixing through the evening as rates back down according to this run.

12z HRRR snow gets near 1 foot to the LSV

[Porsche]

I do think we taint in the southern areas, but to me it may be more about how heavy a thump we get before we taint, if the heavy precip comes barreling in I think we do well, if it waits till later when we taint then not as good.

[paweather]

Still staying with 16” in my area 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

NAM going hog wild with the sleet through the late morning and early afternoon hours, more so than even previous runs.  Not backing down.  Sheesh. 

[pasnownut]

6 minutes ago, Porsche said:

I do think we taint in the southern areas, but to me it may be more about how heavy a thump we get before we taint, if the heavy precip comes barreling in I think we do well, if it waits till later when we taint then not as good.

you said it perfectly.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

I mean, this is only 1pm.......outlier?  We sure hope

[Voyager]

10 minutes ago, canderson said:

1-3

6-10

2-4

for me they say 

1

7-11

2-4

In Coalcrackerville.

[WmsptWx]

9 minutes ago, canderson said:

Ok so let’s say we know meet is coming. 
 

Should we shovel the 10” or whatever if slow late afternoon or let it all fall and deal with it Monday as a frozen icebox? 

If the NAM is right, you'll probably need to shovel sleet twice to avoid throwing your back out lol.

[pasnownut]

700's look to be showing coastal influence at 27 (column collapsing)?

Watch that in future runs.  COULD be a path to victory for southers.  This is the warmest model and I'm gonna keep an eye on that.

Might be noise.  Dunno

[GrandmasterB]

Still about 9 hours of snow for my locale on the NAM. I think that should be 10” verbatim. Then if the sleet is real, that would make one heck of a pack. Honestly, I don’t dislike it. Of course I want 16” of powder, but that’s looking unlikely at this point. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

The problem with the NAM is the sleet bombing happens during the best rates and we lose a ton of qpf.  As others have stated, we need the thump to come in hot and heavy and the switch over to be after best rates have passed.  NAM has a general 6-8" for the southern tier counties.  It doesn't change the fact that it's a highly impactful event but it would change snow maps quite a bit.  Do we take this seriously?  I think we have to at this point, even if it may be a shade overdone.

[pasnownut]

6 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

The problem with the NAM is the sleet bombing happens during the best rates and we lose a ton of qpf.  As others have stated, we need the thump to come in hot and heavy and the switch over to be after best rates have passed.  NAM has a general 6-8" for the southern tier counties.  It doesn't change the fact that it's a highly impactful event but it would change snow maps quite a bit.  Do we take this seriously?  I think we have to at this point, even if it may be a shade overdone.

dynamic cooling w/ best forcing

wouldnt be the first time we were supposed to be "wet" while seein big fatties fallin.

[GrandmasterB]

4 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

The problem with the NAM is the sleet bombing happens during the best rates and we lose a ton of qpf.  As others have stated, we need the thump to come in hot and heavy and the switch over to be after best rates have passed.  NAM has a general 6-8" for the southern tier counties.  It doesn't change the fact that it's a highly impactful event but it would change snow maps quite a bit.  Do we take this seriously?  I think we have to at this point, even if it may be a shade overdone.

I’m really interested to see how this plays out. With the intense rates, does that keep the snow going longer? Also, right before a flip to sleet it should be absolutely pounding snow. 90 minutes could make the difference between 7” and 10”. /ninja’d by nut

[Superstorm]

NAM gets sleet line to southern Massachusetts now.


.

[pasnownut]

3k showin its warmth at 700's.