Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[GrandmasterB]

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Upon further review, Lancaster and Lebanon are squarely in the screw zone with more just west and east. GFS brings the inverted trough west of the river to save them.

Could certainly end up that way, just have to let the chips fall at this point. 

[MAG5035]

32/28ºF with the initial precip on the doorstep here.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Upon further review, Lancaster and Lebanon are squarely in the screw zone with more just west and east. GFS brings the inverted trough west of the river to save them.

Yeah that was painful to view.  I'm just completely lost at this point, can't imagine how professional Mets are feeling haha.  I just got off a long call with a buddy who is a big weather guy and we have no idea how things are going to play out.  Hope we aren't stuck in the middle of the two features.  

[MAG5035]

 

Alright here’s my one and only map for this storm. Tried my best for a blend of things. My concerns from my post earlier are still valid and noted here as well.

5 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

I’m gonna throw out a map at some point I think, though I better do it soon since it looks like the first snow moves into the central counties by 12-2am. Might wait to see some early 0z stuff. 

I still consider the bust potential at least moderate in the corridor between I-81 (including Harrisburg metro) and the Laurels. Rates will be crucial with the first half or so of this event occurring during the daytime in that area with the temps near freezing. High res models kind of hint at this with their more elevational look to snow totals in the ridge and valley. On top of all that is that this is the region of central PA most likely to see that inverted trough related band set up somewhere. That feature’s about the only thing the Euro has been modelling consistently with this system. I think where that sits the longest will put down a narrow stripe of 8-12” within what I currently think will be a general 4-7” for this corridor. 

Still definitely some bust potential for York/Lancaster counties as well in terms of the top end potential. Obviously short term/high res guidance like the HRRR and NAM throttle this part of the Sus Valley, while the globals do not. GFS has tightened a bit, only clipping the far end of Lancaster with double digits. I’m weighing a bit more toward high res stuff at this point but this is where how far inside that coastal low can get becomes very important. 

 

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Do yourselves a favor and put an hourly model, say the 3k NAM, in motion and just watch it to completion.  It's poetry in motion.  The very reason many of us spend time on this crazy hobby.  I love this board and all of you, now let's reel this mother-fu$%er in for the forum.  And yes, I've had a couple whiskeys, so be it.  We wait all year for nights like these.  Cheers fiends! 

This is why many of us are here, but yeah, we hang out w/ some good folks as well.

Enjoy all.  This is the good stuff (even if a little east for my liking).

 

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said:

Thanks! I take pride in my discussions, especially for high impact events. This was a fun one today. I wrote yesterday too, but that conveyed more uncertainty. Today, I let it rip. 

We are lucky to have you.  You make us proud.  Well done friend.

Not often do we get to see writeups like that for this area

[MAG5035]

CTP’s sending it, remaining watch area to warnings and a few extra north central counties in it as well. 4-9”


.

[Jns2183]

Alright here’s my one and only map for this storm. Tried my best for a blend of things. My concerns from my post earlier are still valid and noted here.

Can't see picture

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

[Yardstickgozinya]

I'm already enjoying the whole situation regardless. Everything's covered with frost and crispy out here at my buddies in Lisburn. The rocket stoves fired up  and the soup's about to go on the barrel. I'm doing my couple mile walk home and possibly beyond tonight regardless of what might be coming from the sky. 

[MAG5035]

7 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Can't see picture

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk
 

Let me know if you see it.

[AMDEW80]

10 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Let me know if you see it.

Nice map.  Not going to lie, I thought the original post question mark was… the forecast 

[MAG5035]

6 minutes ago, AMDEW80 said:

Nice map.  Not going to lie, I thought the original post question mark was… the forecast 

Haha I’m glad someone said something, I fixed the original post so it should be visible there now too. 

Also, snow has started here.

[Blizzard of 93]

MDT down to 29 at midnight….

Every flake will count & roads will cave !

[Blizzard of 93]

So if models can’t get low temps right, what else are they missing?

[Blizzard of 93]

MJS… I too have had a couple of “beverages” & am ready to reel in this storm for all of us!

[Blizzard of 93]

@canderson WGAL updated their map to 4 to 8 for most us …

so a local outlet is start to get on board.

[Ruin]

temp down to 29 3 degrees lower then forecast but sure the temps will bounce up due to cloud cover later.

[Blizzard of 93]

@canderson lol, guess what.,, shockingly another local outlet ABC 27 upgraded their forecast to to 4 to 8 for most of us…

[CarlislePaWx]

Hey @Blizzard of 93, I just saw that CTP lumped us in with the rest of the LSV counties, which means expectations now are for 6-12".  As you know, our two counties were kept separate because initially we weren't in the original watch issued yesterday.  They were projecting only 5-9".  My point-n-click had been going with a storm total of 4-6" despite the county warning of 5-9.  Anyway, it's going to be exciting to see where the norlun eventually sets up.  Where in central PA?  This situation reminds me of fond memories from the Jan. 2016 storm which gave me 35".  That turned out to be because the deathband set itself up right over central Cumberland county.  For hours the CCB kept delivering inch after inch of additional snow.  I realize this isn't quite the same setup, but it has the potential to deliver the goods just as in 2016.  The fun continues. 

 

[MAG5035]

Pretty good start so far… moderate rate and 31ºF. About a half inch on non paved surfaces.