Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[GrandmasterB]

17 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Something tells me the upcoming NAM suite will be epic.


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I’m waiting for that one classic NAM run right before the event. Could be happy hour.

[AccuChris]

when does it run agin?

Starts just before 3PM and ends around 345PM


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[MickeyTim6533]

Just now, Superstorm said:

2:35 pm
thank you

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[Blizzard of 93]

18 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Great to see that EPS trend!

[MickeyTim6533]

Just now, AccuChris said:

Starts just before 3PM and ends around 345PM


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Winter Storm Warning

 

Severity: Severe

Significant threat to life or property

Weather Event Onset

7:00 AM (EST), February 22

Description

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 8 and 16 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Berks, Lehigh, Northampton, Carbon, and Monroe Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 AM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Some blowing snow is likely which could lead to reduced visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.

Action Recommended

Make preparations per the Description.

Urgency

Take action within next hour.

Affected Area

Berks

Issued By

National Weather Service

[Blizzard of 93]

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
143 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

...IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM TO BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL TO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...

PAZ057>059-064>066-221130-
/O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0004.260222T1000Z-260223T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0002.260222T1000Z-260223T1800Z/
Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Adams-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Hershey, York, Pottsville, Lancaster,
Lebanon, Gettysburg, and Harrisburg
143 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow likely. Total snow accumulations between 6 and
  12 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph Sunday
  night and Monday.

* WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 5 AM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...The strong winds and weight of snow on tree limbs may
  down power lines and could cause sporadic power outages. Travel
  could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the Monday morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Uncertainty remains for where the heaviest
  snow bands will occur. Snow totals could be higher depending on
  these localized bands. Snowfall at times could exceed 1 inch per
  hour rates.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons are urged to stay indoors until conditions improve. If you
must go outside, dress in layers. Several layers of clothes will
keep you warmer than a single heavy coat. Cover exposed skin to
reduce your risk of frostbite or hypothermia. Gloves, a scarf, and a
hat will keep you from losing your body heat.

Persons should consider delaying all travel. Motorists should use
extreme caution if travel is absolutely necessary

[Blizzard of 93]

This is what I’ve been talking about that CTP mentioned in our Warning

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Uncertainty remains for where the heaviest
  snow bands will occur. Snow totals could be higher depending on
  these localized bands. Snowfall at times could exceed 1 inch per
  hour rates.

 

[MAG5035]

15 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Watches expanded westward, ho.

I was wondering what they were going to do about the non-watch counties between the Sus Valley and the Laurels, since there’s more than modest support that a low end warning can be achieved. Somewhere between here and Harrisburg is also where that NORLUN feature is most likely to set up as well. 

Looks like Perry and Cumberland went right to the warning. 

[Blizzard of 93]

Good post from @Heisy

Here was eps, the black dot I made is where the OP was 

[Blizzard of 93]

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Good post from @Heisy

Here was eps, the black dot I made is where the OP was 

I like the large amount of member clusters near & west of the Op.

If the 8 far east members are eliminated, the mean would be even more tucked.

[anotherman]

Sent from my Mom just now….

[AccuChris]

So far, 18z HRRR looks great


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[Voyager]

Gotta love the range from low end to expected to high end for Tamaqua...

 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

HRRR could make a grown man cry, snows through lunchtime on Monday.

[AccuChris]

18z NAM appears even more tucked and juiced


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[Superstorm]

The NAM is going to town!


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[canderson]

This snow will be very, very heavy. Heads up for the shovelers. 

[Superstorm]

Almost can’t dream of a better NAM run.


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[Blizzard of 93]

5 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

The NAM is going to town!


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Over 10 inches in Harrisburg by 7 am Monday & near 18 in Lanco & it’s still not done!

[Superstorm]

Good seeing the Mesos expand the heavier precip west….as it should


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[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, Superstorm said:

Good seeing the Mesos expand the heavier precip west….as it should


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Just about done at 10 am Monday 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Welp, I guess we can finally say it, "We got NAM'd!"

[philliesmd]

@ChescoWxnot chasing to Sea Usle for this one?

[philliesmd]

Sea Isle

[Voyager]

NAM doing some NAMing @ 18z....unbelievable. 

 

 

[Blizzard of 93]

Kuchera NAM

[Blizzard of 93]

Rookie move!  it was not done!

[AccuChris]

Kuchera NAM

Not sure I have ever seen a model predict 2’+ amounts statewide for NJ wow


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[Blizzard of 93]

3k NAM good too!

[Mount Joy Snowman]

2 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

Not sure I have ever seen a model predict 2’+ amounts statewide for NJ wow


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Haha I know, that's a hilarious map.  God bless the NAM.