Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Blizzard of 93]

The 6z Euro gets a Warning level event to a good chunk of the LSV thanks to the Norlun trough setting up over our region.

[Blizzard of 93]

A compromise between the Euro & GFS would deliver a significant event to many of us.

[Blizzard of 93]

6z GEFS, EPS & AI EPS agree on at least a solid Advisory level snow for us this Sunday into Monday.

[ChescoWx]

Our snow cover is finally melting with just a few inches left here in NW Chester County. Today will be our 34^th straight day with at least an inch of snow on the ground. This now ties this streak for the 10^th longest on record and 13^th overall with records back to 1894. Our rain chances to ramp up this evening and especially tomorrow. We could certainly use the rain as many spots are around half of normal precipitation so far this year and have run at a significant deficit for much of the last 7 months. Temperatures may struggle to escape the 30’s today for the higher elevation spots. We turn milder and drier on Saturday with highs a few degrees above normal. We turn colder Sunday with a chance of snow arriving and if we get some it may continue into Monday morning.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 33 and foggy but with no rain yet.  The overnight runs were a mixed bag but more bad than good.  My fear, and most likely outcome at this point, is that we are too far west to cash in on the best of the coastal and too far east for the best of the upper level trough action.  Stuck somewhere in the middle with a showery couple, to perhaps a few, inches.  Next 36 hours critical for any hope with the coastal.  12z looms.

[mahantango#1]

[anotherman]

Never a good thing when the GFS is by itself. The model should be destroyed.

[pasnownut]

19 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Never a good thing when the GFS is by itself. The model should be destroyed.

have you looded at cmc/euro/ens?  Not sure I'm feeling the same as you. 

GFS might be BEST, case scenario, but plenty of other guidance showing a decent event.  We've all done this long enough to not focus on best case, as odds are extremely low of it verifying, but consensus suggests were getting a modest event sunday.  

[Voyager]

What a warm up...

I know the forecast temps dropped toward late week, but damn, it's 35 and damp as hell this morning. It almost feels worse than the previous frigid cold temps the past few weeks.

[pasnownut]

12 minutes ago, Voyager said:

What a warm up...

I know the forecast temps dropped toward late week, but damn, it's 35 and damp as hell this morning. It almost feels worse than the previous frigid cold temps the past few weeks.

My oldish bones said the same thing the last 2 days.  They prefer 20 crisp n clear vs 35-37 damp dreary.  guess i do still like the cold more than I thought.