Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[mahantango#1]

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

I think Pa is largely safe, but south of M/D where IP is involved, yeah thats a scary concern because of temps that follow.

 

Especially if it's a random tree that decides to fall at the worst possible time in a remote rural area that repair crews will have trouble getting to 

[mahantango#1]

I know this week on tv somebody was worried about the strain on the power grid with these brutal temps this coming week. But hadn't heard anything since.

[Voyager]

You know. I think we all need to slow down on posting here (and in other forums as well) because every storm thread is listed as "HOT". No wonder there's going to be mixing issues. We're heating things up and messing with the thermal profiles...

[paweather5]

[Voyager]

That's some serious heavy snow right there.

[mahantango#1]

 

US National Weather Service State College PA

24 JAN 2026 @ 6:45 AM EST: Arctic air has returned to the region and will set the stage for frozen precipitation to fall with the approaching storm.

 

 

[mahantango#1]

From what I seen it looks like blowing and drifting will be a concern after 8am on Monday into Tuesday morning with 30 mph gusts.

[Voyager]

4 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

From what I seen it looks like blowing and drifting will be a concern after 8am on Monday into Tuesday morning with 30 mph gusts.

Some of the roads we use on our routes are going to be problematic if that occurs. PA895 west of New Ringgold has a deep cut and will probably blow shut if Pendot doesn't stay on top of things. The road to our one well (the "well in the woods" that I show in my videos) traverses an open field that is township maintained and will probably blow shut as well. It may not be until Wednesday that we won't have major problems to deal with.

[GrandmasterB]

Big test for the NAM here vs. the GFS and now the Euro with its slightly colder outcome.  I wonder if some of this will be rate dependent when the sleet line approaches, we should absolutely be ripping snow.  6Z Euro:

[mahantango#1]

7 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Some of the roads we use on our routes are going to be problematic if that occurs. PA895 west of New Ringgold has a deep cut and will probably blow shut if Pendot doesn't stay on top of things. The road to our one well (the "well in the woods" that I show in my videos) traverses an open field that is township maintained and will probably blow shut as well. It may not be until Wednesday that we won't have major problems to deal with.

It's been a while since we had a deep snowcover and 30mph winds to deal with. Rural areas like where I live will not be on a priority list of being kept clear. As crews will be focused on main arteries.

[canderson]

Got down to 4 overnight 

[canderson]

1 minute ago, mahantango#1 said:

It's been a while since we had a deep snowcover and 30mph winds to deal with.

Might not break 20 degrees for the next 8 days 

[mahantango#1]

Just now, canderson said:

Might not break 20 degrees for the next 8 days 

This is gonna be brutal. After years of relative so called mild winters, this is gonna sting.

[Blizzard of 93]

6z Euro continues to hammer all of us with heavy snow. The LSV ends up with 14 to 17 of snow this run. Mixing for the LSV does not arrive until late afternoon or early evening closer to Harrisburg, but the snow has already buried us.

Where can we sign up?

[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

6z Euro continues to hammer all of us with heavy snow. The LSV ends up with 14 to 17 of snow this run. Mixing for the LSV does not arrive until late afternoon or early evening closer to Harrisburg, but the snow has already buried us.

Where can we sign up?

6z Euro snow

[BlueDXer75]

3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

6z Euro snow

As a neighbor to your east in western Berks County, I’d sign up for that as well

[WmsptWx]

I may go full tilt is it's seven degrees outside and fuckin raining :LOL:

[Blizzard of 93]

6z RGEM is looking good

[Blizzard of 93]

High res Canadian short range “Herpaderp” looking good too, lol!

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 5.  It's wild with these temps that (1) we have a major snowstorm even happening at all and (2) some of us have to worry about mixing.  Hi-res models seem to be all over the place with the extent of the sleet.  Today's 12z runs crucial, starting with the HRRR which is firing as we speak.  Let's do this.

[CASH_COOP]

6 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Low of 5.  It's wild with these temps that (1) we have a major snowstorm even happening at all and (2) some of us have to worry about mixing.  Hi-res models seem to be all over the place with the extent of the sleet.  Today's 12z runs crucial, starting with the HRRR which is firing as we speak.  Let's do this.

I think a good strategy today would be to find areas upstream that have a similar forecast as ours and see which way they trend snow vs sleet

[Mount Joy Snowman]

1 minute ago, CASH_COOP said:

I think a good strategy today would be to find areas upstream that have a similar forecast as ours and see which way they trend snow vs sleet

So true, always a great tactic.  Takes some grunt work but worth the effort.  HRRR through 24 looks the same to me, outside of maybe being sped up an hour or two.  

[canderson]

7 minutes ago, CASH_COOP said:

I think a good strategy today would be to find areas upstream that have a similar forecast as ours and see which way they trend snow vs sleet

First anecdote evidence is it’s snowing in Dallas where sleet/zr was forecast by  the nam and other short term models last night. My parents east of Dallas have heat sleet currently. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Sleet line definitely encroaching much more at the height of the storm than at 6z, up to Lanc/Dauphin border by ~3pm.

Edit:  Although much like 6z, it starts to get beat back right after that, a true battle zone. 

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, mahantango#1 said:

I know this week on tv somebody was worried about the strain on the power grid with these brutal temps this coming week. But hadn't heard anything since.

shut AI computer data centers off during situs like this. 

that was an easy fix....

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Voyager said:

That's some serious heavy snow right there.

sure is.  Notable trend from morning runs has been to load up front end accums.

 

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, canderson said:

Got down to 4 overnight 

you win.  i saw 6

 

[mahantango#1]

2.5 was my low.

[paweather]

Isn’t great to see these meterooogists CTP now lower amounts they don’t know either. The output overnight was great. Why lower no need until you had to today if models were showing lower amounts. Back to fun let’s bring this home! 

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, GrandmasterB said:

Big test for the NAM here vs. the GFS and now the Euro with its slightly colder outcome.  I wonder if some of this will be rate dependent when the sleet line approaches, we should absolutely be ripping snow.  6Z Euro:

55 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

6z Euro continues to hammer all of us with heavy snow. The LSV ends up with 14 to 17 of snow this run. Mixing for the LSV does not arrive until late afternoon or early evening closer to Harrisburg, but the snow has already buried us.

Where can we sign up?

 

when i saw it earlier, I had an uncontrollable twitch in crotch region.  W/ CAD getting firmly established, every hour we can eek out untainted, is going to be what I'm looking at.