Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[pasnownut]

Looking back over the nooners (so far), GFS is a southern outlier because its a strung out mess.  CMC/ICON much more consolidated with nice qpf distributio and while slower in progression are much cleaner in evolution.  Does that mean they are right....dunno, but that's my take.  

[paweather]

Long duration on the 12z EURO. Looks good.

[canderson]

30 minutes ago, paweather said:

Late Saturday overnight or Sunday morning

Thank you 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

GFS says what MA storm....

healthy case of suppression depression.

 

While we dont like, cant dismiss as many have suggested the cold press may do this.  

 

I'd be lying if I said the depth of the cold didn't have me a bit on edge.  Still like where we sit but things are FAR from locked.  One of many big Euro runs incoming. 

[WmsptWx]

Looks like Euro is getting .75 QPF into the area. 

[pasnownut]

3 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I'd be lying if I said the depth of the cold didn't have me a bit on edge.  Still like where we sit but things are FAR from locked.  One of many big Euro runs incoming. 

Fortunately the lowest scoring GFS is the only one saying this.  

CMC/ICON and Euro say otherwise, so there's that.

Looking at 500's on GFS vs its twin big brothers, GEFS/GEPS both look better w/ trough axis, so would probably argue against what their little brother is spittin out.  Me thinks anyway.  

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, WmsptWx said:

Looks like Euro is getting .75 QPF into the area. 

at 15:1 you got 10" to turn that frown upside down.  Hope it holds for you. 

[paweather]

12z EURO

[WmsptWx]

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

at 15:1 you got 10" to turn that frown upside down.  Hope it holds for you. 

I would take it. Also, we need the water here desperately, so the more moisture we can get out of this the better. 

[GrandmasterB]

Just based on QPF, I like the 12Z run a little better than the 0Z run. Solid hold for sure and nowhere near the GFS.

[paweather]

2 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Just based on QPF, I like the 12Z run a little better than the 0Z run. Solid hold for sure and nowhere near the GFS.

Agreed good 12z runs 

[MAG5035]

Here’s Euros total QPF, trying to separate the storm QPF from the event Thursday thats going to deliver several more inches of snow in NW PA. 

 

 

Also, surface temps for this are insane. Here’s the 135 hr frame, which was basically the best 6hr precip frame for our area.

Temps are like that the entire event. Normally you see temps like that and would think one would be smoking cirrus.  I know ‘96 started with temps that cold, but I don’t think temps stayed there the entire event. Even if we don’t see the best QPF the whole column is essentially in the ideal snow growth temp range. 

[AccuChris]

Here’s Euros total QPF, trying to separate the storm QPF from the event Thursday thats going to deliver several more inches of snow in NW PA. 

 
 
Also, surface temps for this are insane. Here’s the 135 hr frame, which was basically the best 6hr precip frame for our area.

Temps are like that the entire event. Normally you see temps like that and would think one would be smoking cirrus.  I know ‘96 started with temps that cold, but I don’t think temps stayed there the entire event. Even if we don’t see the best QPF the whole column is essentially in the ideal snow growth temp range. 

Thats how you get 20:1 ratios and get a foot of snow with half the QPF


.

[GrandmasterB]

Adding to what MAG and AccuChris stated on ratios here’s Millville from MA forum, “If you are north of the M/D, your average ratios will likely be >13:1”

[paweather]

I’ll take a 8-12” storm

[sauss06]

39 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

I would take it. Also, we need the water here desperately, so the more moisture we can get out of this the better. 

i didn't realize you guys were still behind

[WmsptWx]

Just now, sauss06 said:

i didn't realize you guys were still behind

I am about 15 mins from Fulton county now. Only county in the state in a drought warning.

[canderson]

1 hour ago, paweather said:

I’ll take a 8-12” storm

The perfect storm amount imo. Not too much to absolutely destroy a week, but enough to kill a a day or two. 

Fluffy snow makes it even better since it’s easier to clear! 

 

FWIW Broadway show runners are already messaging about potential snow impacts. 

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

Here’s Euros total QPF, trying to separate the storm QPF from the event Thursday thats going to deliver several more inches of snow in NW PA. 

 

 

Also, surface temps for this are insane. Here’s the 135 hr frame, which was basically the best 6hr precip frame for our area.

Temps are like that the entire event. Normally you see temps like that and would think one would be smoking cirrus.  I know ‘96 started with temps that cold, but I don’t think temps stayed there the entire event. Even if we don’t see the best QPF the whole column is essentially in the ideal snow growth temp range. 

1996 I started with a temp of 10. I got to 20 at the height of the storm.

[mahantango#1]

DT: 

✳️  CRITICAL UPDATE ON JAN 24-25  EVENT--  and  the  Tuesday 12z   OP- GFS  MODEL RUN... ✳️

 ......  For the love of God will somebody please fix this appallingly bad model?...

 The Tuesday 12z GFS / GFS AI model again for some reason sinks the whole system southward -- to the point where gotten to the point of almost no snow in DC  to NYC .   

I have said this before many times--the GFS model is trash for East Coast winter storms  beyond 78 hrs .

 It  always over does  the cold air, shows suppressed  system and always has storms move off the coast.  

Then once are within 72 hrs  we see the pathetic
.., " IT IS TRENDING  NORTH  !!!... 

 I can pull up the  GFS Models  runs from  days before January 2016 ... February 2014 ... December 2009 ... February 2010 ... 9 December 2018 ....  and time after time after time the GFS model ALWAYS  does this.  

▶️PROOF?  the  12Z  Tuesday OP GFS  & GFs AI  models dont match its own ensembles.  ◀️

Look  I know there are folks out there that think I take the giant dump on the GFS model for with East Coast winter storms for no reason or because I simply don't like the solution.  

Well I don't live in Washington DC or Baltimore Philly so it  this has nothing to do with what I want.  

It is a bad model Beyond 78 hours  when it comes to East Coast winter storms. Always has been and then probably always will be. 

 ⚠️  Finally the crappy GFS model actually INCREASE  uncertainty  especially for meteorologists that don't  look at ensembles or people who are just weather presenters.    ⚠️

You have one solution of 12 inches and then another model which gives a solution of under 2 inches.  This sort of ridiculous variance is useless in forecasting. 

I mean what's the weather forecast going to be?   

....Partly cloudy chance of   snow  with accumulations between 0 to 12 inches?...

 #Winter2026 #SnowLovers  #MidSouthWeather  #SoutheastWeather #MidwestWeather #EastCoastWeather #Snowfall #IceStorm #Snowstorm  #wxtwitter  #vawx #mdwx #wvwx #dcwx #pawx #phlwx #rvawx  #ncwx #rduwx #njwx #mass #ctwx   #nywx #nycwx  #ohwx   #indwx  #kywx #tnwx

[paweather]

21 minutes ago, canderson said:

The perfect storm amount imo. Not too much to absolutely destroy a week, but enough to kill a a day or two. 

Fluffy snow makes it even better since it’s easier to clear! 

 

FAIW Broadway show runners are already messaging about potential snow impacts. 

Yep agreed and it does look like NYC is on target to get a moderate/heavy snowstorm

[mahantango#1]

From SS STORM CHASE AND FORECAST

WE ARE GETTING VERY CONCERNED!!!! 

 

DANGEROUS TEMPS / HEAVY SNOW 

STRONG WINDS / BIG SNOW DRIFTS

 

***READ THE POST!!!!!!!

 

PLEASE LISTEN TO THIS UPDATE….

 

 FIRST, IT’S STILL 4-5 DAYS OUT AND IT MAY NOT HAPPEN, HOWEVER….. 4-5 DAYS IS NOT THAT LONG TO PREPARE FOR A LARGE STORM. 

 

   ———-Update 2PM 1/20———-

 

FIRST, A FEW KEY POINTS…..

 

1. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS & WIDESPREAD STORM ON MODELS. 

 

2. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A MAJOR SNOW STORM BIGGER THAN ANYTHING IN THE PAST 8-10 YEARS OR SO (FOR HERE) FOR THE AREA. 

 

3. TEMPS WILL BE DANGEROUSLY COLD. HIGHS 12-15° With LOWS 1-3° AND WINDCHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO. 

 

4. WINDS WILL BE VERY STRONG, 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THIS MAKES POWER OUTAGES LIKELY. LUCKILY, THIS WILL BE A POWDERY LIGHT SNOW BUT THEN WE DEAL WITH LARGE SNOW DRIFTS. 

 

6. LONG DURATION EVENT OF 24-48 HOURS IS EXPECTED. 

 

7. WIDESPREAD EVENT FROM THE MIDWEST TO TN, NC, KY, OH, WVA, VA, MD, PA, DE, NJ, NY, NYC, RI, MA, VT, and Vicinity.

 

8. AMOUNTS ON MOST MODELS ARE BETWEEN 10-20” with a few models showing Highest totals up to 28” for the Mid Atlantic! 

 

**VERY CONCERNED**

 

 This is not to cause fear or to hype the event, however, we must make everyone aware that this is an extremely dangerous storm system if it does indeed happen as currently model. 

 

It is absolutely possible that it does NOT happen. However, most models show that a major snowstorm is likely to occur starting SUNDAY morning and LASTING into Monday afternoon or evening. (Tuesday for the NE)

 

We will be monitoring this extremely closely, however, in addition to 1 to 2 FEET of snow we must keep in mind that WINDS will be 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 in addition to DANGEROUSLY COLD temperatures WHICH we have not seen in MANY MANY YEARS. 

 

**WARNING** 

**PLAN NOW**  

 

**BUT KNOW WEATHER CHANGES**

 

Those that have animals outside such as horses or livestock or those that work outside with people such as housing the homeless and making arrangements for people that are outside NEED to take necessary action now to protect life and property. 

 

**BE SMART ABOUT PLANNING AND REMEMBER THIS IS STILL 4-5 days OUT AND MIGHT NOT HAPPEN!!! 

 

Again, We want to be very clear that this may not happen, however, much of CURRENT guidance IS IN agreement that a dangerous storm MAY occur and affect MUCH of the Midwest and Eastern United States from North Carolina North to Massachusetts and everyone in between. 

 

We STRONGLY ADVISE everyone to stay weather alert, and monitor MULTIPLE outlets so you can monitor any changes that may occur with this storm system. 

 

***PLAN DON’T PANIC***

 

THE INFORMATION ABOVE IS BASED OFF OF VERY CURRENT FRESH MODEL DATA (12Z) 1/20/26 AS WELL AS PAST MODEL DATA AGREEMENT. 

 

EVEN IF THE STORMS ADJUST SOME IN TRACK, IT IS SUCH A LARGE STORM SYSTEM THAT THE MID ATLANTIC AREA WILL STILL GET A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW WITH STRONG, GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES.

 

WHILE IT’S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WEATHER CAN CHANGE AND THE STORM COULD MISS US. IT IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY RIGHT NOW THAT THAT HAPPENS AND WE RECOMMEND MAKING PLANS NOW IN CASE THIS SCENARIO DOES OCCUR. 

 

THIS WOULD BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT AND RAIN SNOW LINE WILL NOT BE A FACTOR FOR OUR AREA. 

 

 Always REFRESH and check the page for new updates and get the NEWEST and latest information on track and strength changes. This is current as of 2PM Tuesday 1/20/26. 

 

**BELOW is the VERY ACCURATE EURO MODEL*** (12Z)

[paweather]

12 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

From SS STORM CHASE AND FORECAST

WE ARE GETTING VERY CONCERNED!!!! 

 

DANGEROUS TEMPS / HEAVY SNOW 

STRONG WINDS / BIG SNOW DRIFTS

 

***READ THE POST!!!!!!!

 

PLEASE LISTEN TO THIS UPDATE….

 

 FIRST, IT’S STILL 4-5 DAYS OUT AND IT MAY NOT HAPPEN, HOWEVER….. 4-5 DAYS IS NOT THAT LONG TO PREPARE FOR A LARGE STORM. 

 

   ———-Update 2PM 1/20———-

 

FIRST, A FEW KEY POINTS…..

 

1. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS & WIDESPREAD STORM ON MODELS. 

 

2. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A MAJOR SNOW STORM BIGGER THAN ANYTHING IN THE PAST 8-10 YEARS OR SO (FOR HERE) FOR THE AREA. 

 

3. TEMPS WILL BE DANGEROUSLY COLD. HIGHS 12-15° With LOWS 1-3° AND WINDCHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO. 

 

4. WINDS WILL BE VERY STRONG, 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THIS MAKES POWER OUTAGES LIKELY. LUCKILY, THIS WILL BE A POWDERY LIGHT SNOW BUT THEN WE DEAL WITH LARGE SNOW DRIFTS. 

 

6. LONG DURATION EVENT OF 24-48 HOURS IS EXPECTED. 

 

7. WIDESPREAD EVENT FROM THE MIDWEST TO TN, NC, KY, OH, WVA, VA, MD, PA, DE, NJ, NY, NYC, RI, MA, VT, and Vicinity.

 

8. AMOUNTS ON MOST MODELS ARE BETWEEN 10-20” with a few models showing Highest totals up to 28” for the Mid Atlantic! 

 

**VERY CONCERNED**

 

 This is not to cause fear or to hype the event, however, we must make everyone aware that this is an extremely dangerous storm system if it does indeed happen as currently model. 

 

It is absolutely possible that it does NOT happen. However, most models show that a major snowstorm is likely to occur starting SUNDAY morning and LASTING into Monday afternoon or evening. (Tuesday for the NE)

 

We will be monitoring this extremely closely, however, in addition to 1 to 2 FEET of snow we must keep in mind that WINDS will be 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 in addition to DANGEROUSLY COLD temperatures WHICH we have not seen in MANY MANY YEARS. 

 

**WARNING** 

**PLAN NOW**  

 

**BUT KNOW WEATHER CHANGES**

 

Those that have animals outside such as horses or livestock or those that work outside with people such as housing the homeless and making arrangements for people that are outside NEED to take necessary action now to protect life and property. 

 

**BE SMART ABOUT PLANNING AND REMEMBER THIS IS STILL 4-5 days OUT AND MIGHT NOT HAPPEN!!! 

 

Again, We want to be very clear that this may not happen, however, much of CURRENT guidance IS IN agreement that a dangerous storm MAY occur and affect MUCH of the Midwest and Eastern United States from North Carolina North to Massachusetts and everyone in between. 

 

We STRONGLY ADVISE everyone to stay weather alert, and monitor MULTIPLE outlets so you can monitor any changes that may occur with this storm system. 

 

***PLAN DON’T PANIC***

 

THE INFORMATION ABOVE IS BASED OFF OF VERY CURRENT FRESH MODEL DATA (12Z) 1/20/26 AS WELL AS PAST MODEL DATA AGREEMENT. 

 

EVEN IF THE STORMS ADJUST SOME IN TRACK, IT IS SUCH A LARGE STORM SYSTEM THAT THE MID ATLANTIC AREA WILL STILL GET A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW WITH STRONG, GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES.

 

WHILE IT’S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WEATHER CAN CHANGE AND THE STORM COULD MISS US. IT IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY RIGHT NOW THAT THAT HAPPENS AND WE RECOMMEND MAKING PLANS NOW IN CASE THIS SCENARIO DOES OCCUR. 

 

THIS WOULD BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT AND RAIN SNOW LINE WILL NOT BE A FACTOR FOR OUR AREA. 

 

 Always REFRESH and check the page for new updates and get the NEWEST and latest information on track and strength changes. This is current as of 2PM Tuesday 1/20/26. 

 

**BELOW is the VERY ACCURATE EURO MODEL*** (12Z)

Did these guys graduate from High School yet?

[WmsptWx]

SO MUCH CONCERN!!!!

[WmsptWx]

Just now, paweather said:

Did these guys graduate from High School yet?

The one I think just got out of jail.

[paweather]

6 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

The one I think just got out of jail.

Poor forecasting??

[canderson]

6 minutes ago, paweather said:

Poor forecasting??

[WmsptWx]

21 minutes ago, paweather said:

Poor forecasting??

I believe the old man is better at forecasting than he is at providing services he was contracted to perform.

[Ruin]

25 minutes ago, paweather said:

Poor forecasting??

Hah go to jail for a wrong forecast 

[canderson]

CTP being rightful caution in their afternoon update 

 

KEY MESSAGE 2: Medium-range guidance remains consistent in
depicting a large-scale winter storm this weekend, tracking from
the mid-South across the Mid-Atlantic states.

The devil, however, will be in the details, with a tight
northern edge snowfall gradient expected to be at play. Where
exactly this gradient zone sets up is highly uncertain, with the
potential for it lie somewhere across PA.

In all probability, the highest winter storm impacts will be
south of the Mason-Dixon line, but again with a tight snowfall
gradient and the anticipation of heavy snowfall where jet
dynamics are maximized, this situation bears watching. Please
stay tuned for the latest forecast updates.