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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

MAG5035

By MAG5035,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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Jns2183
Jns2183

My brother got my daughter and I , a nephew of his dog. Pure Husky. I had to put my dog down a year ago. He was alive before my daughter was born. He knew I was looking for one because I thought it wa

MAG5035
MAG5035

We have a couple potential events this week. A potent shortwave traversing the Great Lakes Wednesday and another potential wave(s) over the weekend. The low on Wednesday passes north of PA, which will

MAG5035
MAG5035

Nice to see the snow hole the central counties shrink some with the more robust than expected snow shield developing back further last night. Unfortunately I was only the recipient of a light coating,

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mahantango#1

mahantango#1

Posted
Posted

From our great friend DT:

THIS IS IMPORTANT  --like    REALLY  fooking  important.  The amount of snow that the models are producing for this weekend JAN 24-25 in MD VA DEL  WV and KY...and the historic severe ice storm that threatens the Carolinas Is mind-boggling.  As I have said many times before  over the past 30  years  -  really since the arrival of the European model-   every major East Coast snowstorm was detected days in advance as a serious threat.  Even more stunning is the amount of severe cold that comes in behind the storm. With the fresh cold deep snowpack across the southern Mid-Atlantic and KY  the Monday AM ( 0z) European model is actually showing MIN  temperatures in the period January 26-28  well below zero --even in Richmond and Washington DC and into NW  North Carolina. Just mind boggling. 

The event begins Saturday which is now only essentially 5 days away because after all we have to get the forecast out by Thursday  and Thursday night. !!!  

There is still of course some variation here. it could shift for the North and which case we would see heavy snow going over to a major ice storm in the southern Mid-Atlantic and the major snowfall  would get into  Philly New York and Southern New England.. But  due to the nature of the upper air pattern that seems unlikely.   I will be  doing  be video updates  every days ...maybe 2x a  day ...starting this evening and of course there is the NEXT 3  WEEKS Newsletter. 

As the new models come out and new data comes out I will be updating frequently over on my  BLUESKY. I may make some posts over on Twitter but Twitter as you probably know is overrun with Bots and fake accounts and it's become just a monster shit show.

DT: 

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Jns2183

Jns2183

Posted
Posted
sounds north of 6z and in line w/ nooner trends...agreed?
 
This winter like most winters I would prefer to be on the northern fringe until 36-48 hours beforehand. This winter it's gone down to 12-24 hours. Most of our huge storms have followed the same pattern. Tonight and tomorrow I'll see what I can dig into regarding forcast days in advance and north trends just to confirm it isn't confirmation basis. The other interesting feature I glanced at was that the swing from bad luck to good luck seemed more often than not to be a pretty big storm. I want to put some quantitative numbers to that though.

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

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pasnownut

pasnownut

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6 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

I like where we are sitting still 5 days out:

image.png.67166770bb2efc99f5dfbc401a5540b1.png

Yeah based on 500mb flow, safe or too safe is more likely for this one.  I 80 souther special in the makings with northers still getting warning level.  Only about 19 more model runs to go....lol

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
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8 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Euro AI buries us. 

GFS, CMC laughably South

Operational Euro jackpots Richmond.

GFS....yeah you can laugh at that one 

CMC qpf distribution sounds close to euro AI???  Huhh

 

Regardless...plenty of time for changes that will happen, for better or worse.

 

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ChescoWx

ChescoWx

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Below is the number of winter events or individual measurable snow/sleet events by season here in East Nantmeal Twp. with records back to 2003. I have also included seasonal snowfall totals. We have already had 10 winter events this season. The most was back in 2014-15 with 21 events with the least in 2019-20 with just 5 winter events.

image.png.84d21954d73453c7e1856dea0c57bd80.png

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Jns2183

Jns2183

Posted
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Below is the number of winter events or individual measurable snow/sleet events by season here in East Nantmeal Twp. with records back to 2003. I have also included seasonal snowfall totals. We have already had 10 winter events this season. The most was back in 2014-15 with 21 events with the least in 2019-20 with just 5 winter events.
image.png.84d21954d73453c7e1856dea0c57bd80.png
Are those by days of snow individually or do you compress multiple days to one storm. If you want I can send you how I did Harrisburg as well as raw data going back to 1890

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AccuChris

AccuChris

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HH GFS joins the maybe it snows in CTP party.  Sorta wonky evolution, but it gets snow here. 
 

It appears the GFS is doing what it does best and is stringing out the energy and handing too much off to the east too fast. Though, it does have the main low farther west over the weekend and puts more QPF/snow farther north and west. Plenty of time to watch. Key is how fast does the SW energy eject out and can phase with the northern branch so it can attack the cold high


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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
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54 minutes ago, AccuChris said:


It appears the GFS is doing what it does best and is stringing out the energy and handing too much off to the east too fast. Though, it does have the main low farther west over the weekend and puts more QPF/snow farther north and west. Plenty of time to watch. Key is how fast does the SW energy eject out and can phase with the northern branch so it can attack the cold high


.

yep it looked strung out, and it left some energy behind at 12z, so hopefully just GFS doing its thing.  As you suggested and I alluded to at lunchtime, I'm looking for trends and consistency, and north/west has been the trend of the day.  Hoping we can continue that at 0z's

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