Yardstickgozinya Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 9 minutes ago, AccuChris said: 12z Euro AI 10:1 snowmap through the entire run/period is absurd lol . That's a sight for sore Ai's 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago From our great friend DT: THIS IS IMPORTANT --like REALLY fooking important. The amount of snow that the models are producing for this weekend JAN 24-25 in MD VA DEL WV and KY...and the historic severe ice storm that threatens the Carolinas Is mind-boggling. As I have said many times before over the past 30 years - really since the arrival of the European model- every major East Coast snowstorm was detected days in advance as a serious threat. Even more stunning is the amount of severe cold that comes in behind the storm. With the fresh cold deep snowpack across the southern Mid-Atlantic and KY the Monday AM ( 0z) European model is actually showing MIN temperatures in the period January 26-28 well below zero --even in Richmond and Washington DC and into NW North Carolina. Just mind boggling. The event begins Saturday which is now only essentially 5 days away because after all we have to get the forecast out by Thursday and Thursday night. !!! There is still of course some variation here. it could shift for the North and which case we would see heavy snow going over to a major ice storm in the southern Mid-Atlantic and the major snowfall would get into Philly New York and Southern New England.. But due to the nature of the upper air pattern that seems unlikely. I will be doing be video updates every days ...maybe 2x a day ...starting this evening and of course there is the NEXT 3 WEEKS Newsletter. As the new models come out and new data comes out I will be updating frequently over on my BLUESKY. I may make some posts over on Twitter but Twitter as you probably know is overrun with Bots and fake accounts and it's become just a monster shit show. DT: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 12z Euro, south of the PA turnpike gets 6". Cold powder. 8" south of Mason-Dixon. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 24 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 12z Euro, south of the PA turnpike gets 6". Cold powder. 8" south of Mason-Dixon. sounds north of 6z and in line w/ nooner trends...agreed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago I like where we are sitting still 5 days out: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago sounds north of 6z and in line w/ nooner trends...agreed? This winter like most winters I would prefer to be on the northern fringe until 36-48 hours beforehand. This winter it's gone down to 12-24 hours. Most of our huge storms have followed the same pattern. Tonight and tomorrow I'll see what I can dig into regarding forcast days in advance and north trends just to confirm it isn't confirmation basis. The other interesting feature I glanced at was that the swing from bad luck to good luck seemed more often than not to be a pretty big storm. I want to put some quantitative numbers to that though. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 6 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: I like where we are sitting still 5 days out: Yeah based on 500mb flow, safe or too safe is more likely for this one. I 80 souther special in the makings with northers still getting warning level. Only about 19 more model runs to go....lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Great video presentation on the coming storm https://x.com/AccuRayno/status/2013290491517743459?s=20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, mahantango#1 said: Great video presentation on the coming storm https://x.com/AccuRayno/status/2013290491517743459?s=20 cliff notes/summary please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 11 minutes ago, pasnownut said: cliff notes/summary please? Euro AI buries us. GFS, CMC laughably South Operational Euro jackpots Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago WGAL is sounding the alarm on social media. I guess the march is on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 8 minutes ago, WmsptWx said: Euro AI buries us. GFS, CMC laughably South Operational Euro jackpots Richmond. GFS....yeah you can laugh at that one CMC qpf distribution sounds close to euro AI??? Huhh Regardless...plenty of time for changes that will happen, for better or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted 47 minutes ago Share Posted 47 minutes ago At day 5 compared to day about 60-70% of the low mean pressure has come north with a mean distance of 100 milesSent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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