Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Blizzard of 93]

The 0z Euro had 3 light to moderate events from late next week through the end of the month.

[Blizzard of 93]

Super active 6z GFS run with multiple Winter storm threats 

It features a Next Friday snow chance. Then Next Sunday has a snow to mix back to snow chance. The the middle of the following week it has a coastal that just brushes us, but has high upside potential.

What a run!

[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Super active 6z GFS run with multiple Winter storm threats 

It features a Next Friday snow chance. Then Next Sunday has a snow to mix back to snow chance. The the middle of the following week it has a coastal that just brushes us, but has high upside potential.

What a run!

It’s Friday…so…. here is the combined 6z GFS snow map through the end of January just for fun & to show the potential if it all would come together… if only…!

[mahantango#1]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

It’s Friday…so…. here is the combined 6z GFS snow map through the end of January just for fun & to show the potential if it all would come together… if only…!

Yes... if only.

[pasnownut]

38 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 0z Euro had 3 light to moderate events from late next week through the end of the month.

Just looked over overnight and morning runs, and there's not a major global that doesn't have at least a couple chances a white gold, and some are similar in evolution, so it surely gives credence to the notion that snowgeese gonna b honkin.  Yes, of course there are always a myriad of ways to fail, but as we've been suggesting, pattern looks ripe for the pickins in next couple weeks.

6zGFS just went whole hog on us again.  Good thing is there are a few chances inside the midterm, so its not really fantasy stuff.  

[AccuChris]

12z HRRR kuchera snowmap for tomorrow


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[ChescoWx]

It’s sunny and cold today with high temperatures close to freezing. Light snow should begin tomorrow morning and last for a few hours from late morning through early afternoon. Roads should be mainly wet with temperatures just above freezing in most spots. There could be some minor accumulations of up to 1" in some higher spots of NW Chesco. We turn even colder with temperatures remaining below freezing from tomorrow afternoon through at least Thursday morning. We will moderate a bit by next weekend before the coldest weather of the season so far arrives to close out the final week of January.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 18.  I like my chances for an inch of snow tomorrow morning.  Happy Friday, all.

[Itstrainingtime]

What's the timing for tomorrow morning's snow arrival? 

[AccuChris]

12z NAM even more slightly juiced for tonight-tomorrow


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[canderson]

I just want to see mood flakes tomorrow. I think that’s about all we get. Maybe a trace on car tops - I’ll take anything. 

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

It’s Friday…so…. here is the combined 6z GFS snow map through the end of January just for fun & to show the potential if it all would come together… if only…!

Maybe if the Gfs could pump out multiple runs in a row showing similar results, it could be believed. The run-to-run inconsistencies are abhorrent. 

And in case you're wondering where I  got that word, my wife has been using it a lot lately. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

What's the timing for tomorrow morning's snow arrival? 

Most of the guidance I've looked at has a 6-10ish type timeframe for the main swath.  Some show a separate batch breaking out ahead of the morning slug sometime during the overnight hours, but early morning seems the best bet for seeing accumulating flakes.

[Voyager]

19 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Most of the guidance I've looked at has a 6-10ish type timeframe for the main swath.  Some show a separate batch breaking out ahead of the morning slug sometime during the overnight hours, but early morning seems the best bet for seeing accumulating flakes.

My NWS forecast did indicate the two separate periods of precipitation, so we'll see.

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

What's the timing for tomorrow morning's snow arrival? 

midntight thru mid morning, 

[pasnownut]

2 minutes ago, Voyager said:

My NWS forecast did indicate the two separate periods of precipitation, so we'll see.

shows up on mesos as such.  midnight to 3 then 6 to 9-10 am ISH

[Mount Joy Snowman]

40 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

shows up on mesos as such.  midnight to 3 then 6 to 9-10 am ISH

They seem fairly split on the midnight action but either way I tend to think that opening batch may appear more as virga and serve to overcome the dry dews, setting the table for a quick morning slug.  That's my thoughts anyway.  Oh, and the only model that truly matters, that being the RAP (no sarcasm detected), shows a nice morning hit.  #RapForTheWin

[pasnownut]

16 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

They seem fairly split on the midnight action but either way I tend to think that opening batch may appear more as virga and serve to overcome the dry dews, setting the table for a quick morning slug.  That's my thoughts anyway.  Oh, and the only model that truly matters, that being the RAP (no sarcasm detected), shows a nice morning hit.  #RapForTheWin

I didnt check dp's but thats a good point to consider.  quick look and low/mid 20's dp wise from midnight on (when qpf starts to pop), so not too much should be wasted. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

5 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I didnt check dp's but thats a good point to consider.  quick look and low/mid 20's dp wise from midnight on (when qpf starts to pop), so not too much should be wasted. 

My NWS hour by hour has the DP at 14 at midnight and not rising above 20 until 7-8am-ish.  Who knows, I just want to see snow, whenever it comes.  Having a buddy over tonight to watch the Penn State-Iowa wrestling dual and making some old fashioneds.  I might have to stay up and see what transpires, or more likely just fall asleep on the couch haha.

[pasnownut]

24 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

My NWS hour by hour has the DP at 14 at midnight and not rising above 20 until 7-8am-ish.  Who knows, I just want to see snow, whenever it comes.  Having a buddy over tonight to watch the Penn State-Iowa wrestling dual and making some old fashioneds.  I might have to stay up and see what transpires, or more likely just fall asleep on the couch haha.

just glanced as mesos and hi teens at midnight into low/mid 20s early am.  I'd think that'd be enough to let whatever falls get to the surface.  couple looks at skew t's for lanco not bad imo. 

[Itstrainingtime]

MU for tomorrow:

A disturbance will swing through the Commonwealth later tonight into tomorrow & bring snow showers or a period of steadier snow to northern MD, southeastern PA & the LSV. The snow could fall heavily at times between ~5-11 AM before ending around midday. I expect a general coating to 2" of accumulation, but there could be locally higher amounts of 3-4 inches. Models are indicating a narrow but strong, quasi-stationary band of frontogenesis over the LSV Sat AM, & this could lead to a "boom" scenario & some high-end surprises.