Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 26 with a trace of snowfall.  Also, I had .45" from Saturday's rain.  I've been a bit out of the loop but it seems the potential for a big hit late this week has diminished.  Always more ways to make an out than get on base.  Oh well, I still think we'll see several periods with flakes in the air and the cold looks to stay mostly entrenched.  That's good enough for me.  Onward. 

[pasnownut]

18 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Low of 26 with a trace of snowfall.  Also, I had .45" from Saturday's rain.  I've been a bit out of the loop but it seems the potential for a big hit late this week has diminished.  Always more ways to make an out than get on base.  Oh well, I still think we'll see several periods with flakes in the air and the cold looks to stay mostly entrenched.  That's good enough for me.  Onward. 

Yep, nooner GFS looks like a glorified frontal passage w/ little pop.  Enough still coming at us that something can sneak up on us.  Nickels n dimes though.  Better than 60 and sunny. 

[pasnownut]

couple nooners showing NS energy diving down into trough on Friday, and might be something to watch in future runs.  

[Itstrainingtime]

After MU said on Friday he would issue a special storm outlook tomorrow, today he said this:

Tell me the models have been terrible & overamplified with nearly every system in recent weeks/months without telling me. Why haven't I posted about the "potential big storm?" It's simple. With no high-latitude blocking or a 50/50 low, I never saw any potential to begin with.

[pasnownut]

4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

After MU said on Friday he would issue a special storm outlook tomorrow, today he said this:

Tell me the models have been terrible & overamplified with nearly every system in recent weeks/months without telling me. Why haven't I posted about the "potential big storm?" It's simple. With no high-latitude blocking or a 50/50 low, I never saw any potential to begin with.

lol.  Now watch one of these synch up w/ SS and give us a nice event.  Tell me without telling me that it cant happen?

 

[Itstrainingtime]

11 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

lol.  Now watch one of these synch up w/ SS and give us a nice event.  Tell me without telling me that it cant happen?

 

Not sure what happened with him. Just seems "off" lately. I like to give people the benefit of the doubt, but when sharing thoughts in the public sector it's important to maintain some level of normalcy. 

[WmsptWx]

21 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

After MU said on Friday he would issue a special storm outlook tomorrow, today he said this:

Tell me the models have been terrible & overamplified with nearly every system in recent weeks/months without telling me. Why haven't I posted about the "potential big storm?" It's simple. With no high-latitude blocking or a 50/50 low, I never saw any potential to begin with.

If he never saw any potential, then why would he... you know what? I've had the shits of the online wx community outside of this forum. 

 

I'm taking a break.

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Low of 26 with a trace of snowfall.  Also, I had .45" from Saturday's rain.  I've been a bit out of the loop but it seems the potential for a big hit late this week has diminished.  Always more ways to make an out than get on base.  Oh well, I still think we'll see several periods with flakes in the air and the cold looks to stay mostly entrenched.  That's good enough for me.  Onward. 

I finished with .51" of rain.

It was a rough weekend. In full disclosure - I've been a fan of Jacksonville since they entered the league in 1995. Growing up I was a diehard Colts fan. When they left Baltimore after the 1983 season (I was 19) and moved to Indy, I despised them. I started following the Eagles and Steelers but never really gave my heart to them like i had with the Colts. So when Jacksonville got an expansion team, I started to root for them. I still to this day root for Pitt and Philly but my true NFL allegiance is in NE Florida. I've traveled to watch them play and have also seen 2 games in Jacksonville. Needless to say, my heart was shredded every bit as much yesterday as yours was the night before. Only difference is that Jax has never won anything, which made yesterday hurt even more. Good news I guess is, while I'm not a Bills fan per se, I love Josh Allen. He is my favorite player in the NFL. I'm hoping the Bills go on a run and finally exercise their demons. 

[canderson]

12 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

If he never saw any potential, then why would he... you know what? I've had the shits of the online wx community outside of this forum. 

 

I'm taking a break.

I ignore any social media weather stuff. Weather.gov and this forum is all I look at. 

[pasnownut]

26 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Not sure what happened with him. Just seems "off" lately. I like to give people the benefit of the doubt, but when sharing thoughts in the public sector it's important to maintain some level of normalcy. 

i do not follow him, but from the sounds of what some of you share, he sounds like he's got the ass of something.  Also not sure that his reasoning is the only reasons that it "isnt happening".  50/50 just locks cold in.  Verbatim, patter IS cold enough, but as I've suggested a few times over the last week, IMO its move of a split flow kinda thing that NS/SS aren't really synching up. I'm no met, but that's what it looks like to me.  Still think we can keep an eye on some smaller stuff.  

[TheDreamTraveler]

11 minutes ago, canderson said:

I ignore any social media weather stuff. Weather.gov and this forum is all I look at. 

Honestly can be said for just social media in general. That stuff just rots your brain and so many people are just in it for the fame and money that comes with it now. Not worth a lot of peoples time I feel

[pasnownut]

25 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

If he never saw any potential, then why would he... you know what? I've had the shits of the online wx community outside of this forum. 

 

I'm taking a break.

as soon as a good hit shows....you'll be back.  

 

Just like most of us.

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

Honestly can be said for just social media in general. That stuff just rots your brain and so many people are just in it for the fame and money that comes with it now. Not worth a lot of peoples time I feel

I dont really "like" what you state, but couldnt agree more.

[Blizzard of 93]

18z Euro still brings some Thursday light snow to the LSV and a couple of inches to the Williamsport area.

[Blizzard of 93]

18z Euro also has more light snow on late Saturday night for much of CTP.

[Blizzard of 93]

Maybe we still have an outside chance to squeeze out a light event out of one or both of these chances this week?

[Ruin]

30 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

18z Euro still brings some Thursday light snow to the LSV and a couple of inches to the Williamsport area.

lol a far cry for what models show 1 day ago 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 30 at the house but 23 through the rurals on the car therm. 

[Blizzard of 93]

21 in Marysville for the low.

[Blizzard of 93]

Wednesday Night

A chance of rain before 4am, then a slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Southwest wind 5 to 14 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

Wednesday Night

A chance of rain before 4am, then a slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Southwest wind 5 to 14 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Not what most of us were hoping for this week, especially with the way several model runs had been trending.

Hopefully we at least see some snow in the air & maybe a coating for some.

[Blizzard of 93]

Moving forward, the pattern looks active in week 2, with perhaps a chance of some moisture laden storms approaching from the south & west, instead of this never ending Clipper parade that we’ve had since mid December.

There should be cold air around to tap into, so hopefully we can reel in something specific to track for later in the month.

[mahantango#1]

17 this morning.

[mahantango#1]

[pawatch]

18 degrees this morning.

[ChescoWx]

Temperatures today and tomorrow will be a couple degrees above normal for mid-January with highs in the mid to upper 40's. Clouds increase later today and tomorrow with a chance of rain tomorrow evening changing to snow around midnight before ending toward Thursday morning. Any accumulations look light, but we will need to keep an eye out for some potential Thursday morning rush hour impacts. Highs on both Thursday and Friday will remain in the 20's. Below normal temperatures appear likely for much of the next week with lows next week in the single digits possible for some areas.

[mahantango#1]

Wxrisk.com

NEAR HALF POINT OF METEOROLOGICAL WINTER

and more about JAN 15-16 NON EVENT

One of the reasons why I change the avatar, especially during the winter months is to give you an idea on what I think of the overall worker pattern and of course snow chances for the Middle Atlantic and New England areas. I have been reading a few comments that some people thought I had committed to the January 15 16 winter storm threat scenario or outcome.

When I issue the SNOWDOG HOLMES it simply means that I think there's a real possibility of something that's happening but it's just a possibility and not a forecast.

I am not sure if this is a failure on my part to communicate or the fact that some people just really fooking stupid. Maybe some people don't enjoy all the scientific meteorological discussion and just want the simple forecast. There is nothing wrong with that but that's not what I knew here.

In the next weather video on Wednesday I will go into this more detail but experienced meteorologists that do operational weather forecast -- that is to say daily weather forecasting and weekly forecasting -- know that there is this peculiar BARRIER er or breakpoint that exists between the extended models and the shorter range models.

That BARRIER is somewhere around 60 to 84 hours-- 2.5 to 3.5 days. I cannot tell you of the number of times I have seen the weather models forecast a severe weather outbreak or snowstorm or hurricane threat at 7 or 8 days out and consistently show that kind of scenario only to see it suddenly changed dramatically at 72 hours.

Why does that happen ?

As good as the super Advanced satellites are there is still a large “data void” of high quality reliable data covering the Pacific basin. If we keep in mind that all weather is connected and for every action, there is an opposite and equal reaction then it is easier to understand why this barrier in the forecast process is actually there.

For example if the weather models are showing a big storm by the Aleutian Islands at Day 5 that the weather model jumps on to develop an Arctic air mass outbreak across the eastern US at day 8, that can suddenly look very different once we reach 72 hrs. Weather systems in the Eastern Pacific and the west coast of North America usually take three or four days to travel across the continent. The data becomes much more solid and refined and as a result the computer models no longer have to “guess” what the pattern is looking like in the Pacific Ocean.

On the other hand there have been some famous hurricanes and East Coast snow storms where the global models at 6, Day 7 or Day 8 days that got the forecast almost exactly right without any variation or sudden changes. The January 2016 blizzard is one example of that. the January 2014 East Coast snowstorm. The 3 winter storms that hit the Mid-Atlantic in late January early February of 2010.

The primary reason why those events were accurately predicted by the extended weather models is because the MJO -- the Madden Julian Oscillation -was in the phase that supports that kind of winter pattern. In other words the MJO and the computer models were aligned perfectly.

With this event for January 15 16 they are NOT aligned at all which is one of the reasons why I was skeptical

 

 

 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

10 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Wxrisk.com

NEAR HALF POINT OF METEOROLOGICAL WINTER

and more about JAN 15-16 NON EVENT

One of the reasons why I change the avatar, especially during the winter months is to give you an idea on what I think of the overall worker pattern and of course snow chances for the Middle Atlantic and New England areas. I have been reading a few comments that some people thought I had committed to the January 15 16 winter storm threat scenario or outcome.

When I issue the SNOWDOG HOLMES it simply means that I think there's a real possibility of something that's happening but it's just a possibility and not a forecast.

I am not sure if this is a failure on my part to communicate or the fact that some people just really fooking stupid. Maybe some people don't enjoy all the scientific meteorological discussion and just want the simple forecast. There is nothing wrong with that but that's not what I knew here.

In the next weather video on Wednesday I will go into this more detail but experienced meteorologists that do operational weather forecast -- that is to say daily weather forecasting and weekly forecasting -- know that there is this peculiar BARRIER er or breakpoint that exists between the extended models and the shorter range models.

That BARRIER is somewhere around 60 to 84 hours-- 2.5 to 3.5 days. I cannot tell you of the number of times I have seen the weather models forecast a severe weather outbreak or snowstorm or hurricane threat at 7 or 8 days out and consistently show that kind of scenario only to see it suddenly changed dramatically at 72 hours.

Why does that happen ?

As good as the super Advanced satellites are there is still a large “data void” of high quality reliable data covering the Pacific basin. If we keep in mind that all weather is connected and for every action, there is an opposite and equal reaction then it is easier to understand why this barrier in the forecast process is actually there.

For example if the weather models are showing a big storm by the Aleutian Islands at Day 5 that the weather model jumps on to develop an Arctic air mass outbreak across the eastern US at day 8, that can suddenly look very different once we reach 72 hrs. Weather systems in the Eastern Pacific and the west coast of North America usually take three or four days to travel across the continent. The data becomes much more solid and refined and as a result the computer models no longer have to “guess” what the pattern is looking like in the Pacific Ocean.

On the other hand there have been some famous hurricanes and East Coast snow storms where the global models at 6, Day 7 or Day 8 days that got the forecast almost exactly right without any variation or sudden changes. The January 2016 blizzard is one example of that. the January 2014 East Coast snowstorm. The 3 winter storms that hit the Mid-Atlantic in late January early February of 2010.

The primary reason why those events were accurately predicted by the extended weather models is because the MJO -- the Madden Julian Oscillation -was in the phase that supports that kind of winter pattern. In other words the MJO and the computer models were aligned perfectly.

With this event for January 15 16 they are NOT aligned at all which is one of the reasons why I was skeptical

 

 

 

 

It's really hard to take someone seriously who constantly calls other people stupid when that guy can't spell or use punctuation correctly. 

Not to mention, he's not that good. (accurate)